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Saturday, 19 June 10
DRY BULK MARKET DOWN ON CHINESE SLOWDOWN FEARS


Dry bulk freight rates have been on a freefall for more than two weeks now, something which has caused the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) to plunge by almost 30% in a month, ending the week at 2,694 points, down 90 on a daily basis. The index had rallied at more than 4,000 points just a few weeks, sparking renewed investment interest by ship owners. But, as most have realized by now, volatility will remain the norm for the market as the year progresses, with the so called “China factor” proving to be even more crucial for the market’s behavior.

According to Weberseas’ latest weekly report, “the expected mid-summer correction continued this week, affecting all sizes, but in particular the larger sizes with the capesize and panamax. However not to forget that China and Taiwan were on holiday from Monday to Wednesday this week made matters worse. On the other hand, positive news are coming from China where the country's net coal imports are expected to reach a huge 170 million tonnes this year. The same figure for 2009 was 103 million tonnes so this year we could see a jump in coal imports by as much as 65%. And why is this important news? Simply because China's energy consumption comes mostly from coal - in 2009 alone coal accounted for nearly 70% of the country's total energy consumption. Thus, coal movements into China will increase and this will be reflected in freight rates” said Weberseas.

Reflecting on Chinese economy and more interestingly for dry bulk ship owners on the steel industry, Commodore Research issued its monthly report on the subject, saying that “Chinese crude steel production set another new monthly record in May - but fears of an impending economic slowdown coming to China persist. China produced 56.17 million tons of crude steel in May, an increase of 770,000 tons (1%) from the previous monthly record of 55.4mt produced in April. Despite another month of record setting crude steel production, many market observers continue to expect that rapid economic growth in China will soon decrease.

Concerns are flooding the financial and shipping markets that recent government policies aimed at restricting bank lending and slowing the swift rise in real estate prices will drastically reduce economic growth in China. We believe that these fears are valid but anticipate Chinese economic growth will maintain robustness for the foreseeable future, even if lending moderates and real estate prices become less robust. Any decline in growth is expected to be small, and moderate lending and firm industrial demand and consumer spending are expected to continue. We do believe, however, that Chinese steel output will decrease in the short-term from an extremely robust level of current production” said the report.

It went on to state that Chinese steel prices remain under pressure and steel mills have begun to announce short-term production cuts and “maintenance” that will slow some blast furnaces. “Chinese steel stockpiles have decreased from a month ago, though, with stockpiles of flat and construction steel products now totaling about 15.2 million tons, a decrease of 300,000 tons (-2%). Current stockpiles are 3.38mt (-18%) lower than the record 18.58mt of steel stockpiled in the beginning of March. Chinese steel output is therefore still expected to remain strong even though output is likely to decline this month as steel producers react to falling prices. Chinese steel exports continue to reach monthly volumes not seen since 2008. China exported 4.94 million tons of steel in May, an increase of 630,000 tons (15%) from the 4.31mt exported in April. In the first five months of 2010, Chinese steel exports have averaged 3.59mt per month, an increase of 1.54mt (75%) from 2009‘s monthly average of 2.05mt. A steady increase in global steel demand continues to contribute to robust Chinese steel production” concluded Commodore.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide



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