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Wednesday, 09 June 10
INDIA, CHINA TO PROP UP THERMAL COAL DEMAND - COMMODITY ONLINE
 Commodity Online : Weakness in thermal coal demand in OECD will continue to be offset by growth in demand in India and China. Therefore, the seaborne thermal coal will continue to be in tight supply over the next few years, according to an analysis by Bank of America-Merrill Lynch.
The analysis points out that supply issues are affecting the demand and pricing of thermal coal. South Africa’s thermal exports remain constrained by rail issues near term, with some relief possible in 2011. Australia’s thermal coal exports are also expected to improve in 2011, with additional port capacity being commissioned, but rail issues are likely to continue and hinder rapid export growth. Indonesian export growth should slow, as domestic demand builds. Over the last five years, Indonesian exports increased by a staggering 80%, over the next five years we only expected a further 20% increase.
India's domestic coal supplies and transportation systems are also struggling to keep pace with surging demand, and imports will fill the gap. Longer term, India’s Ultra Mega Power stations are largely focused on imported coal.
BofAML doesn't expect European demand to fall any further which coupled with rising China imports could keep the thermal coal market tight. The support for thermal coal comes from seasonal strength, low inventories, and continued transportation bottlenecks. Longer term strong demand is expected from the ongoing coal-fired power station build-out, as well
as continued cost inflation pressures on the domestic coal industry
Weak demand in the Atlantic Basin combined with low freight rates have seen South African, US and Colombian coals increasingly shipped to new markets such as India, Pakistan and China. As such, BofAML believes Asian coal prices will be the marginal price setter for Atlantic coals and prices will be determined by the mix of Asian coal market prices and freight rates.
South Africa: Strike over, but supply issues are not
Rail volume remains poor despite resolution of the recent strike. Port stocks remain low and, as such, export volumes could be at further downside risk.
South Africa’s export issues are clearly constrained by their rail capacity for the next few years (Richard Bay phase five will take capacity to 91mtpa by year end). Rail capacity is set to increase in 2011 from around 66mtpa to 80mtpa with the addition of 100 new diesel electric loco’s to be delivered in early 2011. However, any commissioning delays or additional labour disputes could take a heavy toll on South Africa’s planned export growth.
South Africa’s domestic demand
Eskom, South Africa’s largest utility, is opposing exports of lower grade coals out of Richards Bay. A lower-grade thermal product called RB3 (5,600kCal) has been developed for new markets, such as India, that are capable of consuming such coal.
Australian exports
Australian thermal coal exports have been subdued in recent months with Newcastle operating near full capacity. However, April exports from Newcastle have improved, suggesting
some improvement will follow in total (export data yet to be released). Export volumes for 2011 are expected to improve as new capacity is commissioned in the form of stage 1 NCIG and continued expansion of the Kooragang Island coal terminal. Rail issues may continue to hinder export growth.
Coal projects to underpin the additional capacity additions at Newcastle are significant. Additional coal will be supplied by a number of new expansions and operations in 2011, such as Moolarben (6.2mtpa by 2011) and Narrabri (5mtpa by 2013).
China’s demand for Australian seaborne coal has dissipated this year, switching to other coal suppliers such as Indonesia, South Africa and even Colombia . We see this as positive with Newcastle prices holding firm despite the lacklustre demand from China.
Australia’s export plans
The development of Australia’s considerable thermal coal resources is progressing, but infrastructure remains the current impediment to export growth. While port constraint issues are being slowly resolved, rail developments are ongoing and remain a critical part of mine development progress.
In NSW, the Port Waratah Coal Services (PWCS) shipped 93mtpa in 2009, with a recent expansion to 113mtpa in 2010 (however YTD exports are yet to show much improvement). The next stage to 135mtpa has been approved. Beyond this there are plans for an additional 50-60mtpa. Separately, the NCIG could ultimately add a further 66mtpa.
Goonyella Abbott Point project (formerly the northern missing link) has seen contracts exchanged recently and construction commenced, with take or pay commitments from Anglo and Aquila. BofAML believes first coal is due down the track in 2012. Abbot Point already has 50mtpa export capacity and as such increased rail capacity here should have a great impact on exports.
Indonesian exports: Booming, slowdown coming
Indonesian exports should continue to grow, albeit at much lower rates than historical levels. During the last five years, exports have increased 80%, and over the next five years we forecast exports to increase only 20%.
This growth will be dominated by low rank coal. Driving this is the low pricing of Indonesian low rank coal and low production costs. The negative aspects of such coal are high moisture, low energy content, potential spontaneous combustion issues and higher shipping costs (due to higher moisture levels). BofAML sees China and India as the main markets for this coal given new power stations’ ability to utilise such coal types .
In late 2009, the government announced a plan to cap coal exports at 150mtpa (2008 exports were 200mtpa), but this did not account for the around 50mtpa in illegal exports. However, we see this as unlikely to be enforced with coal production growth to outstrip domestic demand. Domestic demand will account for about 40mt in 2010 potentially increasing to approximately 80mt by 2013, assuming power station building is not delayed.
Indonesia’s exports increased sharply YTD. Exports reached 82.47mt in the first four months of the year (247mt annualised vs 201mt exports in 2009). Driving this growth were sharply higher volumes to China (26% of volumes) and India (15% of volumes). BofAML stated that much of the growth in export volumes occurred in low caloric value coals, given China and Indian markets dominate buying in low rank coals.
Mongolia: Exports heating up
Given Mongolia exports are land based, they do not feature in our seaborne supply demand model. However, we believe they will have an important role to play in global coal trade. Most Mongolia coal (125bt resources) is in the south and bordering China. Mongolia exported 8.5mt in thermal and semi soft coal in 2008. This is forecast to grow rapidly over the next five years, potentially as high as 60mt.
However, several issues are critical. Rail infrastructure is lacking in Mongolia and the current system is based on Russian wide gauge (vs China standard gauge). The debate over which rail gauge to use is currently before parliament. Mongolia hart 12: Indonesian thermal coal exports (Mt)… slowing to 4% pa growth from 12%pa growth will be a key supply source for China.
Despite this new supply source, BofAML believes China will continue to import significant seaborne coal volume as the competitive dynamics of seaborne coal improve versus domestic coal over time.
Vietnam: Stable exports for now
We believe Vietnam’s exports will be largely stable over our forecast time period. However, longer term, Vietnam’s exports could slow as domestic electricity generation ramps up, outpacing domestic supply in the outer years of the forecasts. Longer term, Vietnam could import a significant amount of Indonesian thermal coal (5-6mt), yet delays to power station construction have seen much of this potential demand pushed back after 2015.
Demand: Macro headwinds abound
The rapid surge in funding costs for sovereign nations, financial institutions and corporations has once again raised concerns about systemic risk. The iTraxx Europe 5Y CDS index is now 60bp higher than its low point for the year, suggesting significantly higher borrowing costs for European corporates. Implied volatilities in cyclical asset classes such as equities and commodities have also spiked in the last month. Investor flows are largely reflecting a flight to safety, and leverage is being reduced across various financial markets. The combination of higher sovereign risk, a falling euro and the financial regulation bill recently passed in the US Senate should continue to provide support for US dollardenominated safe haven assets, such as gold and US Treasuries.
Judging by the latest available data, the global industrial production cycle is in full swing. Clearly, it is still too early to determine the exact impact that the European financial crisis will have on the real economy. In the Eurozone, the manufacturing PMI decelerated slightly in April, but still implied strong growth ahead. However, we find it increasingly likely that global economic activity will start to decelerate.
Europe suffers from a big North-South competitiveness divide, an indebted consumer and overstretched government finances, all of which could put GDP growth on a lower trend path over the coming quarters. Moreover, it is no secret that European economies are closely interdependent when it comes to trade, so a crisis in Southern Europe can have a big impact on Northern European economies through the export channel. In addition to the obvious trade linkages, European countries hold each other’s debt, highlighting why contagion across the Eurozone spread at such a rapid pace during the past few weeks China will import substantial volumes of seaborne coal in 2010 and 2011.
European coal demand: Bottomed out
While the macroeconomic environment is deteriorating, BofAML does not believe European coal imports will slide further. EEC thermal coal imports for March at 8mt were the lowest level seen over the past five years.
Germany accounts for around a third of EEC imported coal volumes. Germany’s demand to remain robust with planned commissioning of about 20MW of coal fired power stations over the next five years. The coal feed for these power stations will need to be imported. Part of the coal-fired power station roll out is replacement of existing older facilities, and part is replacement of ageing nuclear plants. The UK accounts for another third of EEC imported coal volumes.
Ten power stations are facing closure after 2012, following the emissions trading scheme introduced in 2005. Despite this, we expect imported thermal coal demand to improve as domestic coal supplies are depleted. France and Spain will see continued import coal demand declines as switching to nuclear and gas power, respectively, continues.
Japan – A slow switch away from coal
Traditionally the world’s largest seaborne coal importer, Japan’s economy is rebounding. Coal power consumption is improving and inventories are at low levels.
More broadly JPUs are continuing the diversification process away from coal-fired power toward nuclear. Additionally, programs are in place to improve the thermal efficiency of existing and new coal plants.
India’s Imports - Progression
India’s economic growth is robust and appears relatively well insulated from external shocks. Industrial production growth has accelerated sharply and increasing power production will be required to underpin growth.
BofAML believes India’s rapidly rising import demand for thermal coal will continue. Recent import demand has been supported by strong demand and domestic coal supply issues. BofAML said that that ~30 coal fired power plants are now at critical stock levels of less than 7 days due to an inability to secure coal supplies. BofAML said that rail (lack of rail dumpers) continues to be a constraint on domestic coal supplies in India with imported coals from South Africa, Indonesia and Australia filling the gap.
Source:Commodity Online
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Thursday, 13 May 10
ACTIVITY ON WEST COAST INDIA IS SLOWING - FEARNLEYS AS
DRY BULK CHARTERING
Handy
Atlantic markets remain firm but more for end May/beg June dates as there seems to be more enquiries for those dates. ...
Thursday, 13 May 10
DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS CHEERFUL AMID MARKET RALLY
China’s appetite for raw materials like iron ore and coal, as well as a series of added factors are boosting demand for dry bulk carriers, hel ...
Wednesday, 12 May 10
BANPU'S Q1 PROFIT SLIDES 43% TO B2.71BN - BANGKOK POST
The Bangkokpost reported that, Banpu Plc posted a first-quarter net profit of 2.71 billion baht, down by 43% from the same period last year.
The ...
Tuesday, 11 May 10
DALRYMPLE BAY COAL EXPORTS HIGHEST SINCE JULY; NEWCASTLE FALLS - BLOOMBERG
Bloomberg reported that, Coal shipments from Australia’s Dalrymple Bay terminal in Queensland state rose to the highest in nine months in Apri ...
Tuesday, 11 May 10
DRY BULK RATES SHOOT UP ON STRONG CARGO DEMAND
The dry bulk industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has kept its momentum, as predicted by analysts and shipping experts, managing t ...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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- The University of Queensland
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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