We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 09 June 10
INDIA, CHINA TO PROP UP THERMAL COAL DEMAND - COMMODITY ONLINE
 Commodity Online : Weakness in thermal coal demand in OECD will continue to be offset by growth in demand in India and China. Therefore, the seaborne thermal coal will continue to be in tight supply over the next few years, according to an analysis by Bank of America-Merrill Lynch.
The analysis points out that supply issues are affecting the demand and pricing of thermal coal. South Africa’s thermal exports remain constrained by rail issues near term, with some relief possible in 2011. Australia’s thermal coal exports are also expected to improve in 2011, with additional port capacity being commissioned, but rail issues are likely to continue and hinder rapid export growth. Indonesian export growth should slow, as domestic demand builds. Over the last five years, Indonesian exports increased by a staggering 80%, over the next five years we only expected a further 20% increase.
India's domestic coal supplies and transportation systems are also struggling to keep pace with surging demand, and imports will fill the gap. Longer term, India’s Ultra Mega Power stations are largely focused on imported coal.
BofAML doesn't expect European demand to fall any further which coupled with rising China imports could keep the thermal coal market tight. The support for thermal coal comes from seasonal strength, low inventories, and continued transportation bottlenecks. Longer term strong demand is expected from the ongoing coal-fired power station build-out, as well
as continued cost inflation pressures on the domestic coal industry
Weak demand in the Atlantic Basin combined with low freight rates have seen South African, US and Colombian coals increasingly shipped to new markets such as India, Pakistan and China. As such, BofAML believes Asian coal prices will be the marginal price setter for Atlantic coals and prices will be determined by the mix of Asian coal market prices and freight rates.
South Africa: Strike over, but supply issues are not
Rail volume remains poor despite resolution of the recent strike. Port stocks remain low and, as such, export volumes could be at further downside risk.
South Africa’s export issues are clearly constrained by their rail capacity for the next few years (Richard Bay phase five will take capacity to 91mtpa by year end). Rail capacity is set to increase in 2011 from around 66mtpa to 80mtpa with the addition of 100 new diesel electric loco’s to be delivered in early 2011. However, any commissioning delays or additional labour disputes could take a heavy toll on South Africa’s planned export growth.
South Africa’s domestic demand
Eskom, South Africa’s largest utility, is opposing exports of lower grade coals out of Richards Bay. A lower-grade thermal product called RB3 (5,600kCal) has been developed for new markets, such as India, that are capable of consuming such coal.
Australian exports
Australian thermal coal exports have been subdued in recent months with Newcastle operating near full capacity. However, April exports from Newcastle have improved, suggesting
some improvement will follow in total (export data yet to be released). Export volumes for 2011 are expected to improve as new capacity is commissioned in the form of stage 1 NCIG and continued expansion of the Kooragang Island coal terminal. Rail issues may continue to hinder export growth.
Coal projects to underpin the additional capacity additions at Newcastle are significant. Additional coal will be supplied by a number of new expansions and operations in 2011, such as Moolarben (6.2mtpa by 2011) and Narrabri (5mtpa by 2013).
China’s demand for Australian seaborne coal has dissipated this year, switching to other coal suppliers such as Indonesia, South Africa and even Colombia . We see this as positive with Newcastle prices holding firm despite the lacklustre demand from China.
Australia’s export plans
The development of Australia’s considerable thermal coal resources is progressing, but infrastructure remains the current impediment to export growth. While port constraint issues are being slowly resolved, rail developments are ongoing and remain a critical part of mine development progress.
In NSW, the Port Waratah Coal Services (PWCS) shipped 93mtpa in 2009, with a recent expansion to 113mtpa in 2010 (however YTD exports are yet to show much improvement). The next stage to 135mtpa has been approved. Beyond this there are plans for an additional 50-60mtpa. Separately, the NCIG could ultimately add a further 66mtpa.
Goonyella Abbott Point project (formerly the northern missing link) has seen contracts exchanged recently and construction commenced, with take or pay commitments from Anglo and Aquila. BofAML believes first coal is due down the track in 2012. Abbot Point already has 50mtpa export capacity and as such increased rail capacity here should have a great impact on exports.
Indonesian exports: Booming, slowdown coming
Indonesian exports should continue to grow, albeit at much lower rates than historical levels. During the last five years, exports have increased 80%, and over the next five years we forecast exports to increase only 20%.
This growth will be dominated by low rank coal. Driving this is the low pricing of Indonesian low rank coal and low production costs. The negative aspects of such coal are high moisture, low energy content, potential spontaneous combustion issues and higher shipping costs (due to higher moisture levels). BofAML sees China and India as the main markets for this coal given new power stations’ ability to utilise such coal types .
In late 2009, the government announced a plan to cap coal exports at 150mtpa (2008 exports were 200mtpa), but this did not account for the around 50mtpa in illegal exports. However, we see this as unlikely to be enforced with coal production growth to outstrip domestic demand. Domestic demand will account for about 40mt in 2010 potentially increasing to approximately 80mt by 2013, assuming power station building is not delayed.
Indonesia’s exports increased sharply YTD. Exports reached 82.47mt in the first four months of the year (247mt annualised vs 201mt exports in 2009). Driving this growth were sharply higher volumes to China (26% of volumes) and India (15% of volumes). BofAML stated that much of the growth in export volumes occurred in low caloric value coals, given China and Indian markets dominate buying in low rank coals.
Mongolia: Exports heating up
Given Mongolia exports are land based, they do not feature in our seaborne supply demand model. However, we believe they will have an important role to play in global coal trade. Most Mongolia coal (125bt resources) is in the south and bordering China. Mongolia exported 8.5mt in thermal and semi soft coal in 2008. This is forecast to grow rapidly over the next five years, potentially as high as 60mt.
However, several issues are critical. Rail infrastructure is lacking in Mongolia and the current system is based on Russian wide gauge (vs China standard gauge). The debate over which rail gauge to use is currently before parliament. Mongolia hart 12: Indonesian thermal coal exports (Mt)… slowing to 4% pa growth from 12%pa growth will be a key supply source for China.
Despite this new supply source, BofAML believes China will continue to import significant seaborne coal volume as the competitive dynamics of seaborne coal improve versus domestic coal over time.
Vietnam: Stable exports for now
We believe Vietnam’s exports will be largely stable over our forecast time period. However, longer term, Vietnam’s exports could slow as domestic electricity generation ramps up, outpacing domestic supply in the outer years of the forecasts. Longer term, Vietnam could import a significant amount of Indonesian thermal coal (5-6mt), yet delays to power station construction have seen much of this potential demand pushed back after 2015.
Demand: Macro headwinds abound
The rapid surge in funding costs for sovereign nations, financial institutions and corporations has once again raised concerns about systemic risk. The iTraxx Europe 5Y CDS index is now 60bp higher than its low point for the year, suggesting significantly higher borrowing costs for European corporates. Implied volatilities in cyclical asset classes such as equities and commodities have also spiked in the last month. Investor flows are largely reflecting a flight to safety, and leverage is being reduced across various financial markets. The combination of higher sovereign risk, a falling euro and the financial regulation bill recently passed in the US Senate should continue to provide support for US dollardenominated safe haven assets, such as gold and US Treasuries.
Judging by the latest available data, the global industrial production cycle is in full swing. Clearly, it is still too early to determine the exact impact that the European financial crisis will have on the real economy. In the Eurozone, the manufacturing PMI decelerated slightly in April, but still implied strong growth ahead. However, we find it increasingly likely that global economic activity will start to decelerate.
Europe suffers from a big North-South competitiveness divide, an indebted consumer and overstretched government finances, all of which could put GDP growth on a lower trend path over the coming quarters. Moreover, it is no secret that European economies are closely interdependent when it comes to trade, so a crisis in Southern Europe can have a big impact on Northern European economies through the export channel. In addition to the obvious trade linkages, European countries hold each other’s debt, highlighting why contagion across the Eurozone spread at such a rapid pace during the past few weeks China will import substantial volumes of seaborne coal in 2010 and 2011.
European coal demand: Bottomed out
While the macroeconomic environment is deteriorating, BofAML does not believe European coal imports will slide further. EEC thermal coal imports for March at 8mt were the lowest level seen over the past five years.
Germany accounts for around a third of EEC imported coal volumes. Germany’s demand to remain robust with planned commissioning of about 20MW of coal fired power stations over the next five years. The coal feed for these power stations will need to be imported. Part of the coal-fired power station roll out is replacement of existing older facilities, and part is replacement of ageing nuclear plants. The UK accounts for another third of EEC imported coal volumes.
Ten power stations are facing closure after 2012, following the emissions trading scheme introduced in 2005. Despite this, we expect imported thermal coal demand to improve as domestic coal supplies are depleted. France and Spain will see continued import coal demand declines as switching to nuclear and gas power, respectively, continues.
Japan – A slow switch away from coal
Traditionally the world’s largest seaborne coal importer, Japan’s economy is rebounding. Coal power consumption is improving and inventories are at low levels.
More broadly JPUs are continuing the diversification process away from coal-fired power toward nuclear. Additionally, programs are in place to improve the thermal efficiency of existing and new coal plants.
India’s Imports - Progression
India’s economic growth is robust and appears relatively well insulated from external shocks. Industrial production growth has accelerated sharply and increasing power production will be required to underpin growth.
BofAML believes India’s rapidly rising import demand for thermal coal will continue. Recent import demand has been supported by strong demand and domestic coal supply issues. BofAML said that that ~30 coal fired power plants are now at critical stock levels of less than 7 days due to an inability to secure coal supplies. BofAML said that rail (lack of rail dumpers) continues to be a constraint on domestic coal supplies in India with imported coals from South Africa, Indonesia and Australia filling the gap.
Source:Commodity Online
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Thursday, 24 June 10
DRY BULK MARKET AT LOWEST POINT IN EIGHT MONTHS
The dry bulk market’s demise has failed to turn around so far this week, with the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), yest ...
Wednesday, 23 June 10
WILHELMSEN SHIPS SERVICE OPENS NEW OFFICE IN KRISHNAPATNAM PORT INDIA
Wilhelmsen Ships Service has opened a branch office in Krishnapatnam port on the east coast of India according to statement released by company ...
Wednesday, 23 June 10
PTC'S INDONESIAN COAL-MINING FORAY-I: TO INVEST USD 69 MILLION VIA OVERSEAS SPV
Moving ahead with its plans to acquire coal assets abroad, the power trading major, PTC India Limited, has decided to invest a total of USD 69 milli ...
Tuesday, 22 June 10
INDIA HAS REPORTED MORE COAL IMPORTS FROM COLOMBIA
A second consecutive week of sharp corrections for the dry bulk market, although some of the softness could be attributed to Chinese holidays at the ...
Monday, 21 June 10
THE SUPRAMAX INDEX IN THE FAR-EAST (S6 ROUTE) WAS DOWN BY $ 1300 PER DAY - VISTAAR
COALspot.com: The market continued to soften in all sectors last week also with the BDI dropping by 18.07 pct and Cape index by 26.71 pct.
The BD ...
|
|
|
Showing 5766 to 5770 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Planning Commission, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
|
| |
| |
|
