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Tuesday, 08 June 10
RUSSIA REPORTED A TENFOLD GROWTH IN COAL EXPORTS TO CHINA IN 1Q 2010 - BRS


A retreat for all the dry bulk segments this week, but especially for the Panamax and Supramax markets. The Panamax 4TC remains over US$30,000/day however, and average rates this year are still higher than in 2005 and 2006. Continued strength in coal demand is underpinning this market. This week Deutsche Bank predicted thermal coal would be the next booming cargo for Australia. Simultaneously Russia reported a tenfold growth in coal exports to China in 1Q 2010.  Tight coal markets may be further affected by conditions in Indonesia where a combination of growing domestic demand and new environmental limitations could curb exports. According to a government spokesman, domestic coal demand could double in the next five years as the country adds new powergenerating capacity.

Supramax/Handy
The market softened at a steady pace in both basins, although Handies in South East Asia and the Far East showed more resistance. There were fewer and fewer requirements coming out of ECSA for the larger stems. Supramax units open South Africa managed to get close to midUS$30,000s from West Africa to the Far East via Brazil, and about US$26-27,000 for trip ending Continent/Med via ECSA. Handymaxes got in the low/very low US$20,000s for South Africa to Continent direct. Large units open USG took also a hit, which deteriorated after force majeure was declared at Jose terminal due to a belt breakdown. Nevertheless, tct from USG to Continent/Med paid in excess of US$50,000 at the start of the week and then below US$50,000 end of the week. The transatlantic rv was in the low/mid US$30,000s for Supras. In the Continent and Med, some Handymax scrap cargoes were fixed from ARA to east Med in the mid US$30,000s on time charter equivalent. In the Pacific, India rates kept softening and iron ore stems paid in the low US$20,000s from WCI to China. Indo to India paid in the mid US$20,000s for Supras while the Pacific rv was in the low US$20,000s.    There was little to report on the period front, but for deliveries in the east levels were in the mid US$20,000s for up to 6 months on Supras, and low US$30,000s for 4/6 months for Supras in the Atlantic.

Panamax
The Panamax market maintained a downward trend in both basins, falling at a steady pace. The Transatlantic rv lost US$3,500 to close the week at about US$37,000/day delivery Gibraltar redelivery Cont, and the NOPAC rv lost over US$3,000, closing the week at about US$26,500/day. The main reason was the lack of activity in the USG/USEC and a quiet ECSA market which took advantage of an oversupply of ships in SE Asia and India with Tess 74 getting fixed at below US$30,000/day delivery Singapore for trip via ECSA with redelivery PG/Japan range. Period activity was quiet this week with very few fixtures reported. Tess 74 were fixed for short period delivery Atlantic at around US$37,500/day redelivery Atlantic, and US$27,000/day delivery North China redelivery worldwide . Both basins were down US$5,000 from 2/3 weeks ago.

Capesize
There was a strong start to the week for the Capes with some of the previous week’s gains in the Atlantic transferring over to the Pacific. At its peak, Australia – China was being done at over US$14. Conditions were still relatively tight in the Atlantic and the 4TC finished the week above US$55,000/day. However rates were falling by the end of the week and overall the BCI finished down 2%. There were more signs of a softening on Monday with a drop of over 200 points, while period interest was scarce, with the paper market trading at a significant discount to the physical. 
Source:
BRS Dry Bulk



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