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Wednesday, 02 June 10
CHINA'S IRON ORE IMPORTS TO KEEP BEING THE BIGGEST FACTOR FOR DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES SAY READERS


With dry bulk freight rates staging a positive rally during most of May, the industry’s main benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has managed to stay above the 4,000 point mark, among the highest levels reached since the financial crisis back in late 2008, led to a collapse of the shipping markets as well. According to the latest Hellenic Shipping News poll, where a total of 4,605 votes were casted, China’s iron ore imports will continue to be the leading factor determining the course of rates.

A total of 1,707 of answers or 37.1% said that this will be the most important gauge for rates, as was the case in the previous years – and especially during 2009 – as well. An equally important 22.4% of votes or 1,031 in total said that newbuiling deliveries, directy affecting tonnage supply will be the main cause for altering the course of freight rates. With capesize deliveries during the first quarter of the year reaching record levels, many analysts remain cautious about the prospects of the market, especially during the second half of the year, when more deliveries have been scheduled.

Similarly, newbuilding cancellations will be the third most important factor according to the Hellenic Shipping News readers. A total of 13.9% or 638 voters claimed this very thing, as more cancellations could help alleviate future supply pressures, although that can’t be said for 2010, but more for 2011 going forward. The same alleviating consequences can derive from the scrapping of older dry bulk carriers, which was the fourth most important factor, accumulating 620 votes (13.5% of the total). So far this year, demolition activity for dry bulk vessels has remained quite low, as prices for second hand carriers began firming up. Still, scrap prices have exploded, which in turn has prompted scrapyards to increase their offers towards ship owners to near record levels. Despite these developments, most ship owners weren’t enticed and preferred to keep their older ships in service, at least as long as freight rates are at levels which sustain profitability to satisfactory levels.

Another factor (609 answers or 13.2%) which could keep rates at high levels is the rapid increase of coal imports from the powerhouse of India. The country has tremendous needs of electiricity producing coal, which could see this year’s imports increase to 100 million tons. As a result, many analysts expect the creation of another major dry bulk market for seaborne trade, after the emergence of China early in the decade.

During this month (June) we return to one of your favorite questions. We ask readers about the level of the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) during the second half of the year, proving a range of choices, from the pessimistic end to the more optimistic one. With many analysts doubting whether the market can sustain today’s high levels, it would be rather interesting to see what you think.

Finally, for those of you who will attend this year’s Posidonia Exhibition, don’t forget to stop by the Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide “Dry Bulk Forum”, scheduled for Thursday, 10th of June, from 10:45 am to 12:45 pm. Speakers include Mr. Dale Ploughman, CEO of Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp., Mr. Dimitris Nenes, President and COO (Chief Operating Officer) of OceanFreight Inc., Mr. Christofer Thomas, Chief Financial Officer of Paragon Shipping Inc., Mr. Ted Petropoulos, head of Petrofin Research, Mr. George Xiradakis, CEO of XRTC Business Consultants and Mr. John Pachoulis, President of the Hellenic Shipbrokers Association.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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