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Thursday, 27 May 10
DRY BULK RATES REACH 2010 HIGHS, BUT FUTURE REMAINS UNCERTAIN


This week is proving to be a milestone for the dry bulk market, as the Baltic Dry Index has propelled itself at never before seen levels for 2010. Yesterday, the BDI edged up even higher at 4,209 (+ 22 points on a daily basis), with the Capesize market segment once again leading the pack, as all other ship types demonstrated deflationary trends. Still, after the impressive increase of Tuesday, yesterday proved a rather moderate session, with few fluctuations, in what could be a sign that charterers have tested their strength and aren’t willing to push the market any further. Thus, some market correction could be in store in the following days.

In yesterday’s weekly report, Fearnley’s said that capesize rates went through the roof. “Early this week, FFA values for June were USD 51,500 vs. mid last week USD 37,000, one of the main drivers for the physical market. The freight for Australia round voyage jumped from USD 12.1 last week to USD 14.2 mid this week, Tubarao Qingdao from USD 29.9 to 34.4! Although some talks about the market appearing more toppish now - nobody dares to say we are presently on the top. It is also interesting to note last year’s jump around this time, the 21st of May the index was USD 40,000 vs. USD 93,000 the 3rd of June”.

Commenting on a lackluster panamax segment, the shipbroker said that “as expected and despite the strong re bounce in the Cape segment, the Panamax market gradually lost some of its momentum over the last few days. In the Atlantic prompt Continent positions are still able to secure very healthy numbers in the mid/upper 40´s, whereas Charterers with June requirements may not be so tight on tonnage. Front haul typically in the mid/high 40´s range apart from spot trips via Aden as a Baltic-India buiz done at 60K. The Pacific market has consolidated around the low 30.000 level for NOPAC and ECSA rounds. The period market is still fairly active indicating the market may believe the downside is limited” said Fearnley’s.

In a market comment released this week, Jeffrey Landsberg of Commodore Research said that he remains cautious for what is in store for the future and there is valid concern that freight rates may come under great pressure in the second half of the year. “With that in mind, though, we continue to take things one step at a time, as there will continue to be opportunities to benefit from changes in short-term market dynamics, as we have seen in the dry bulk equity, FFA, and physical markets in the last few weeks”. According to Commodore’s analysis, approximately 100 capesize vessels were delivered in 2009, about 66% of what was expected to be delivered back in July 2008. “Capesize freight rates averaged approximately $43,000 in 2009. This year, approximately 45 Capes were delivered in the first quarter of this year with more delivered each week.  On an annualized basis that's 180 Cape deliveries for 2010.  At the time of writing, however, Capesize freight rates are averaging $48,248/day - well above operating costs and historically a very robust rate” said Landsberg.

In the short-term though, Chinese demand for thermal coal is expected to remain robust as China enters peak summer demand season and the economy continues to expand at a rapid pace. In addition, the commencement of Indian monsoon season will result in China needing to import more iron ore from Australia and Brazil which will lend additional support to Capesize freight rates. A decrease in Indian iron ore exports, which are normally carried on Supramax and Panamax vessels, will be partially offset by an increase in Chinese grain imports. Overall, dry bulk cargo demand is in a bit of a lull, but thermal coal and grain demand remain robust and iron ore demand is still firm.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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