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Wednesday, 19 May 10
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES' RALLY MAY BE SET TO END


The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has rallied these past couple of weeks, almost touching the 4,000 point mark. But this positive development for dry bulk ship owners could soon be coming to an end, according to market analysts. Yesterday, the BDI ended down by 40 points to 3,882, with the Capesize segment registering heavy losses, which brought the Baltic Capesize Index (BDI), once again almost on par with the smalle panamax market (4,513 points versus 4,504 points).

During the course of the previous week, Chinese ore and Asian coal demand remained particularly firm, thus pushing capesize rates up by 14% week-on-week. In the first two weeks of May, capesize rates rose by a rather impressive 29% or $11,320. Still, according to the latest weekly report by Commodore Research & Consultancy, "freight rates for all vessels may be poised to decrease moderately in the near-term, as dry bulk commodity prices have fallen across the board and Chinese stockpiles have increased.

Overall dry bulk cargo demand is still expected to remain robust during the summer, however, and the market will likely only experience a brief lull in spot chartering activity. 20 vessels were reportedly fixed to carry iron ore last week, 7 less than the previous week. After a brief lull in spot chartering activity, we expect cargo demand to rebound due to Northern Hemisphere peak summer coal demand and an increase in Chinese corn and soybean imports.  We also expect Chinese steel production to remain firm throughout the summer" said the report.

It mentions that capesize rates may be poised to full further this week, as spot iron ore and Chinese steel prices begin to show weakness. "In addition, stockpiles of iron ore and thermal coal in China have begun to increase, which might put additional pressure on the entire dry bulk market in the near-term. Thermal coal demand in China and throughout much of Asia is expected to remain robust, however, as the Northern Hemisphere summer peak demand season results in greater electricity consumption. Asian and European steel production is also expected to maintain healthy levels, as the global economy continues to emerge from recession.

Only a brief lull in spot chartering activity is expected, and dry bulk commodity demand is expected to return to robust levels within a few weeks.

In the upcoming weeks, dry bulk freight rates will likely come under pressure due to the decline in dry bulk commodity prices coinciding with growing iron ore and thermal coal stockpiles.

After a temporary lull in spot chartering activity, dry bulk demand and freight rates will likely find renewed support due to various developments (including an expected surge in long-haul Chinese corn and soybean imports and steady Chinese coastal freight rates) which are discussed in the remainder of this report. Firm period chartering activity also suggests that the market expects dry bulk cargo demand to increase in a few weeks Dry bulk freight rates increased across the board last week - but spot chartering activity was relatively low and freight rates were moderately supported by robust levels of period chartering activity" Commodore said. 

Chinese iron ore port stockpiles now total about 69.61 million tons, 1.26mt (2%) more than the previous week. Stockpiles have now increased for five consecutive weeks and are approaching this year's peak of 71.17mt, which was reached in early March.

At the same time, Indian iron ore fixtues decreased noticeably last week, continuing the trend of sporadic Indian ore fixture activity - resulting from the Indian government continuing to investigate and restrict illegal mining and railing of ore from Orissa.

The same amount of Brazilian and Australian iron ore fixtures were reported in market compared with the previous week. Going forward, Chinese iron ore demand might decline in the immediate shortterm due to rising ore stockpiles and declining steel prices.

After a possible brief pause in steady iron ore imports, Chinese demand is expected to return to firm levels. Indian ore fixtures will likely stay at low levels beginning in June when India's monsoon season begins. At that time, most of China's ore will come from Brazil and Australia, concluded the analysis.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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