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Tuesday, 18 May 10
THE BDI HIT A FIVE-MONTH HIGH AT THE CLOSE OF LAST WEEK


According to BRS, One of the oldest ship broker, at 3,929 points, the BDI hit a five-month high at the close of last week. The Capesize four time charter average briefly went over the magic US$ 50,000/day mark, and market optimism was carried along by high prices in the FFA market plus strong trading on the Atlantic/Far East coal route. As South Africa entered a second week of strikes, the iron ore market was particularly badly hit with both Kumba (Anglo-American) and Xstrata declaring force majeure.

Suppliers have been able to cover demand with existing stocks but say the impact will be much more severe if the strike continues into a third week. In the steel markets, industry leaders warned prices would have to rise in reaction to the new quarterly ore price agreements, and steel could face new competition from aluminium and plastics. It comes at a time of recovering demand in many western markets. This week Germany reported a more than doubling in steel output to 3.88m tonnes for April compared to the same month last year. 

Supramax/Handy

Despite holidays in various parts of the world, sentiment remained firm. Indian demand for Indonesian and Australian coal is still firm, as is nickel ore bound for China. This pushed rates to the high US$ 20,000s for Pacific employment and encouraged owners to ask in excess of US$ 30,000 for short period. That being said, ships open in India are now facing a shortage of ore due to the monsoon and have little alternative but to ballast across to south America where demand on the back of grain and sugar export is still strong. The north Atlantic saw high levels with Supramax asking in the  mid US$ 40000s for trip from USG to Continent/ Med and mid US$ 50,000s for trip to the Far East. Handies are still in demand, particularly from the Continent with lots of grain, fertilizers and scrap stems.

Panamax

Overall, the Panamax market was stable in the Pacific and firm in the Atlantic. The TA round voyage closed the week at around US$ 39,000/day, up week-on-week from around US$ 35,000/day thanks to good coal activity out of the USG and grain out of ECSA. On the other side of the ocean the Indian market was quieter this week: WCI-China market is now paying low-mid US$ 30,000s and with the monsoon coming, the market should ease, freeing up some ballasters for the ECSA market. The market for this trade was paying over US$ 35,000 per day for trip to PG/Japan range via ECSA. The period market was active and takers were paying around US$ 32,000/day delivery north China for short period, and US$ 40,000 per day for delivery Atlantic redelivery worldwide. 

Capesize

A strong week for the big ships, with the four time charter average breaching US$ 50,000 on Thursday, levels not seen since December 2009. Overall the BCI was up 10% and the 4TC 14%. Gains were partly spurred on by the FFA market, where an estimated 21,000-plus cleared trades were concluded, of which more than 40% were in the Cape market. Trading was heaviest for 2Q and 3Q, helping to push up rates in the physical market, although there was less optimism for later in the year. Rates eased on Friday and Monday although tonnage is still tight in the Atlantic and there is more activity expected from the mining companies this week. Four to six month fixtures were being signed in the low $ 40,000s.  
Source: BRS Dry Bulk



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