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Saturday, 15 May 10
DRY BULK MARKET POSTS HEALTHY WEEKLY GAINS


The dry bulk market has reached new highs this week, the second consecutive solid one, with the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), inching closer and closer to the 4,000 point mark. On Friday, the BDI ended at 3,939, up by 15, capping the week with a nearly 9% gain overall, although the capesize segment showed some modest signs of fatigue by the end. Throughout the week, all of the indices were well up, as the market is showing its strength.

In its latest weekly report, Weberseas noted that “with it came stronger period activity across all areas. Whilst the newebuilding supply of ships continues, it seems that demand factors are very strong. Port congestion around the world continues to take ships off the market (at Newcastle, Australia alone there are some 33 vessels queuing off the port waiting to load 2.87 million tonnes of coal).

At the same time the world economy appears to be recovering at a steady rate with U.S. consumption (the driving force of global growth before the crisis) having gained significant momentum. Another good factor for dry bulk growth is the fact that the demand for non-oil commodities has grown at a remarkable pace in April. According to the World Bank non energy commodity price index increased by 9.6% in April alone, up from 1.7% in March!!! The index was supported by iron ore, agriculture and precious metals, while some industrial metals saw minor losses” said Weberseas.

But the shipping community is closely monitoring developments in China, which still plays a key role for the market. According to a latest note by Commodore Research & Consultancy, “Chinese steel production continues to set new records, and yet fears of an economic slowdown persist. China produced 55.4 million tons of crude steel in April, an increase of 430,000 tons (1%) from the previous monthly record of 54.97mt produced in March. Despite the ongoing robustness in Chinese steel production, many market observers have begun to sound the alarm that China’s economy is slowing down. These pundits are correct to be concerned over government policies aimed at restricting bank lending, slowing real estate prices, and slowing car purchases - but Chinese steel output has yet to decline.

Firming steel stockpiles may be signaling that Chinese steel production is set to slow however. Stockpiles of Chinese flat and construction steel products now total about 15.55 million tons, an increase of 150,000 tons (1%) from the end of last week. Prior to this decline, however, steel stockpiles had declined for seven consecutive weeks, and are still down significantly from a record 18.58mt stockpiled in the beginning of March. So far, robust steel production looks poised to continue but steel stockpiles must still be monitored. A rise in Chinese steel prices has also begun to level off, although prices are still much higher than they were a year ago” said the report. Still, a robust amount of iron ore and coal imports continue to be fixed in the dry bulk shipping market.

According to a report by Shanghai Daily, citing government reports, China’s economy is expected to grow 10.7 percent annually in the second quarter, slowing from the surge of 11.9 percent in the first three months of this year. This slowing down of the pace is attributed to a smaller rise in investment, according to the latest report by the State Information Center, a unit under the National Development and Reform Commission, the country's top economic planner.

"China has recovered solidly from the global financial crisis. The first-quarter gross domestic product climbed to a record 11.9 percent but it is mainly due to a low comparative base last year," the report said. "Excluding the low-base effect, the growth is still within a range of reasonable expansion, and the economy is not overheated as some analysts claimed." Investment, however, will expand at a slower pace after China tightened credit to avoid economic overheating and curb a possible asset bubble. Urban fixed-asset investment is expected to gain 24.5 percent in the second quarter, lower than a rise of 25.6 percent between January and March. Exports, badly hit by the global financial crisis, may climb 25 percent in the second quarter. Imports are seen to surge 35 percent.

Commodore’s outlook on China’s economy suggested that it is very possible to see a moderate slowdown in the medium term (six to nine months), but into the summer, demand trends look poised to remain robust.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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