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Tuesday, 28 April 09
WORLD THERMAL COAL PRICE EXPECTED TO CRASH - PURCHASING.COM


Macquarie Bank sees 50% drop to $60/ton in 2009

Macquarie Bank today forecast the 2009 average market price for world thermal coal at $60/ton, a 50% decline from $121 in 2008 and even below the $62 thermal coal price average in 2007. Thermal coal is principally used for power generation and also is used as a fuel in the manufacture of cement, bricks and tiles.

Electricity demand worldwide is generally weak and London-based analyst Isaac Feehely says has been bearish on thermal coal for some time. But, prices haven’t slipped below $60, he admits, because of “poor production in Australia, mine constraints in China and labor issues in Colombia.”

He now expects Australian and Colombian supply issues to be resolved soon. And he remains bearish on the outlook for crude oil prices, “which should put some downward pressure on coal prices.” The only other bullish factor in the market might be China but import demand is less than had been forecast.

Coal in general is losing its market value, Feehely says His report point out that Chinese domestic coking coal prices have slipped in April to around $138/ton from an average $158 in the first quarter and export contract prices from Chinese and Australian mines have slipped to $128-$130 this month.

Source: http://www.purchasing.com/article/CA6654540.html?industryid=48401



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