We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 17 April 10
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - BIMCO
 Strong Chinese steel market is set to cushion the flood of new Capesize vessels entering the dry bulk fleet Demand: The first quarter of 2010 saw ups and down for the BDI with the index hovering around 3,000. It seems as if the market is balanced on a knife edge. High supply is likely to overmatch even very healthy demand growth rates – strongly dependant on China.
Chinese iron ore imports continue to remain firm. In the first quarter of this year, China has imported an average of 51.68 million tons (mt) of ore. In 2009, iron ore imports reached a monthly average of 52.37mt, leaving this year’s ore imports just 1% short of 2009 levels, but still very healthy at 14.7mt (40%) more than 2008 levels. With steel prices rising above those of 2009 – Chinese iron ore imports will continue as the prime driver in the dry bulk market.
However, the present spot rates are not expected to stay that low as time charter rates stay strong as illustrated by the reported BHP Billiton booking of a Capesize vessel for 3-5 months at USD/day 37,000 - more than 30% premium to spot. The current FFA (Forward Freight Agreement) rates also point in that direction with Capesize Q2 FFA going up to USD/day 35,750 and Panamax Q2 going down to USD/day 28,500.
Supply:
The active fleet has grown by 3.5% during first quarter of 2010, caused by deliveries of 16 million DWT of newbuildings offset by just 1 million DWT being demolished. Since BIMCO Bulletin 1/2010, the total dry bulk order book has increased by 5.5 million DWT. It seems as though the optimism from surprisingly healthy freight rate levels in 2009 has made contracting go on – despite the fact that the 285 million DWT that comprises the order book today is doomed to make challenging markets in short as well as long-term.
Year-to-date deliveries in capesize amount to 47 ships comprising 8.7 million new DWT, resulting in an increased fleet size of 5% so far in 2010 and active Capesize vessel number 1,000 has just been delivered. At the beginning of 2009, 822 Capesize vessels were active, but an inflow of 112 newbuildings and 29 converted vessels was added to the existing fleet, counterbalanced by just 9 demolitions, leaving a fleet tonnage growth of 18.5% in 2009.
An additional 305 Capesize vessels are scheduled for delivery in 2010, but “only” 183 will hit the water, when applying the BIMCO assumptions for supply forecast as described next to the graphics. In total, this will in turn mean that Capesize tonnage could grow by 21% when fine-tuning for an average scrapping age of 26 years for Capesize vessels
as compared to the average of 30 years for the overall fleet.
BIMCO forecasts inflow of new dry bulk tonnage in 2010 to reach 76 million DWT, offset by demolition of as much as 13 million DWT. This could make the fleet grow by 14% in 2010 as compared to 10% in 2009. Deliveries in 2011 are forecast to be even higher before supply growth comes down in 2012.
Clarkson’s have scheduled deliveries of 120-130 million DWT in 2010. BIMCO assumes that 10% of the entire order book will not be built and one third of the rest will be deferred by one year. Furthermore, the demolition potential is calculated to 49 million DWT, equal to all vessels aged 30 or above to be demolished by the end of 2013.
Outlook:
The fortunes of the dry bulk markets are basically down to the fortunes of China. March was the 13th straight month that the official Chinese PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) has stood above the threshold of 50 that demarcates expansion from contraction, indicating that the Chinese economy is on a stable and relatively fast growth track. PMI rose to 55.1% in March, up 3.1% on last month, according to data released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing.
The housing market and huge infrastructure projects have been primary beneficiaries of the Chinese Government’s stimulus package. With the construction sector being the number one steel user, consuming around 50% of Chinese steel, it goes without saying that a continuance of the strength in this sector is vital for the health of the dry bulk freight rates.
Freight rates are forecast by MSI to drift sideways on current levels over the next 6 months. Capesize rates are forecast to stay around USD 30-35,000 per day while the smaller vessel types could see rates go down from current levels to around USD 16-24,000 per day.
Current news:
BHP Billiton has reached agreement to sell the majority of its iron ore to Asian steel mills on shorter term contracts, ending more than 40 years of annual pricing. Brazilian Vale have also inked new iron ore prices – resulting in price hikes of around 90%– indicating a continued strong demand for the vital raw material in steel production. Contract prices for coking coal are also expected higher.
Meanwhile, the China-Rio Tinto bribery case has just been settled. The court in Shanghai sentenced the four convicted Australian mining giant Rio Tinto employees to prison for a total 39 years. They were found guilty after having admitted to accepting about USD 13 million in bribes from private steel mills that wanted to avoid purchasing iron ore from more costly state-run mills. The arrangement undercut the state’s China Iron and Steel Association’s desire for a united front in negotiating with Australian suppliers. Shortly after the verdict the employees were sacked for clear violation of Chinese Law and Rio Tinto’s code of conduct. China claims its steel sector paid as much at USD 160 million too much last year for iron ore because of bribery and espionage. While the three Chinese defendants have decided to appeal terms, the Australian national Stern Hu appears to be the only one not appealing terms.
Source: Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Thursday, 17 November 11
DRY BULK MARKET INCHES FORWARD AND INTO HIGHER GROUND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market edged higher yesterday, on the back of stronger demand for Capesize vessels and general improvement of sentiment on most of the ...
Thursday, 17 November 11
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 500K MT OF COAL
COALspot.com - Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd.(KOMIPO) is inviting bids for the supply of 500,000 Metric Tons of minimum 5700 kcal/kg coal of NAR bases ...
Thursday, 17 November 11
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT PLANS TO ISSUE MORATORIUM ON COAL MINING LICENSE
COALspot.com - Energy and mineral resources ministry is plans to issue a moratorium on the issuance of coal mining licenses, after the anti-graft co ...
Wednesday, 16 November 11
KRISHNAPATNAM PORT BECOMES DEEPEST DRAFT PORT IN INDIA
COALspot.com - Krishnapatnam Port in its quest to be the best port in India has increased its draft to 17.5 meters, according to E-Mail statement fr ...
Wednesday, 16 November 11
CHINA'S INDONESIA COAL IMPORTS RISE IN OCTOBER
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest coal exporter, shipped 31,162,688 MT of coal in October 2011.
China was a largest importer of Indonesi ...
|
|
|
Showing 4976 to 4980 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The University of Queensland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
