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Saturday, 17 April 10
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - BIMCO
 Strong Chinese steel market is set to cushion the flood of new Capesize vessels entering the dry bulk fleet Demand: The first quarter of 2010 saw ups and down for the BDI with the index hovering around 3,000. It seems as if the market is balanced on a knife edge. High supply is likely to overmatch even very healthy demand growth rates – strongly dependant on China.
Chinese iron ore imports continue to remain firm. In the first quarter of this year, China has imported an average of 51.68 million tons (mt) of ore. In 2009, iron ore imports reached a monthly average of 52.37mt, leaving this year’s ore imports just 1% short of 2009 levels, but still very healthy at 14.7mt (40%) more than 2008 levels. With steel prices rising above those of 2009 – Chinese iron ore imports will continue as the prime driver in the dry bulk market.
However, the present spot rates are not expected to stay that low as time charter rates stay strong as illustrated by the reported BHP Billiton booking of a Capesize vessel for 3-5 months at USD/day 37,000 - more than 30% premium to spot. The current FFA (Forward Freight Agreement) rates also point in that direction with Capesize Q2 FFA going up to USD/day 35,750 and Panamax Q2 going down to USD/day 28,500.
Supply:
The active fleet has grown by 3.5% during first quarter of 2010, caused by deliveries of 16 million DWT of newbuildings offset by just 1 million DWT being demolished. Since BIMCO Bulletin 1/2010, the total dry bulk order book has increased by 5.5 million DWT. It seems as though the optimism from surprisingly healthy freight rate levels in 2009 has made contracting go on – despite the fact that the 285 million DWT that comprises the order book today is doomed to make challenging markets in short as well as long-term.
Year-to-date deliveries in capesize amount to 47 ships comprising 8.7 million new DWT, resulting in an increased fleet size of 5% so far in 2010 and active Capesize vessel number 1,000 has just been delivered. At the beginning of 2009, 822 Capesize vessels were active, but an inflow of 112 newbuildings and 29 converted vessels was added to the existing fleet, counterbalanced by just 9 demolitions, leaving a fleet tonnage growth of 18.5% in 2009.
An additional 305 Capesize vessels are scheduled for delivery in 2010, but “only” 183 will hit the water, when applying the BIMCO assumptions for supply forecast as described next to the graphics. In total, this will in turn mean that Capesize tonnage could grow by 21% when fine-tuning for an average scrapping age of 26 years for Capesize vessels
as compared to the average of 30 years for the overall fleet.
BIMCO forecasts inflow of new dry bulk tonnage in 2010 to reach 76 million DWT, offset by demolition of as much as 13 million DWT. This could make the fleet grow by 14% in 2010 as compared to 10% in 2009. Deliveries in 2011 are forecast to be even higher before supply growth comes down in 2012.
Clarkson’s have scheduled deliveries of 120-130 million DWT in 2010. BIMCO assumes that 10% of the entire order book will not be built and one third of the rest will be deferred by one year. Furthermore, the demolition potential is calculated to 49 million DWT, equal to all vessels aged 30 or above to be demolished by the end of 2013.
Outlook:
The fortunes of the dry bulk markets are basically down to the fortunes of China. March was the 13th straight month that the official Chinese PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) has stood above the threshold of 50 that demarcates expansion from contraction, indicating that the Chinese economy is on a stable and relatively fast growth track. PMI rose to 55.1% in March, up 3.1% on last month, according to data released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing.
The housing market and huge infrastructure projects have been primary beneficiaries of the Chinese Government’s stimulus package. With the construction sector being the number one steel user, consuming around 50% of Chinese steel, it goes without saying that a continuance of the strength in this sector is vital for the health of the dry bulk freight rates.
Freight rates are forecast by MSI to drift sideways on current levels over the next 6 months. Capesize rates are forecast to stay around USD 30-35,000 per day while the smaller vessel types could see rates go down from current levels to around USD 16-24,000 per day.
Current news:
BHP Billiton has reached agreement to sell the majority of its iron ore to Asian steel mills on shorter term contracts, ending more than 40 years of annual pricing. Brazilian Vale have also inked new iron ore prices – resulting in price hikes of around 90%– indicating a continued strong demand for the vital raw material in steel production. Contract prices for coking coal are also expected higher.
Meanwhile, the China-Rio Tinto bribery case has just been settled. The court in Shanghai sentenced the four convicted Australian mining giant Rio Tinto employees to prison for a total 39 years. They were found guilty after having admitted to accepting about USD 13 million in bribes from private steel mills that wanted to avoid purchasing iron ore from more costly state-run mills. The arrangement undercut the state’s China Iron and Steel Association’s desire for a united front in negotiating with Australian suppliers. Shortly after the verdict the employees were sacked for clear violation of Chinese Law and Rio Tinto’s code of conduct. China claims its steel sector paid as much at USD 160 million too much last year for iron ore because of bribery and espionage. While the three Chinese defendants have decided to appeal terms, the Australian national Stern Hu appears to be the only one not appealing terms.
Source: Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 18 April 12
INDONESIA TO INTRODUCE EXPORT DUTY ON MINERAL ORES BY 6 MAY 2012
The Indonesian government is scheduled to issue regulation on export duty for minerals before May 6, 2012.
According to Bisnis Indonesia, as quot ...
Sunday, 15 April 12
THE SPOT FIXTURE RATES FOR SUPRAMAX IN SE ASIA SAW SOME SOFTENING OF CHARTER RATES - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The market seem to be holding and except for Supramax and handy size index all other index was up with BDI up by 4.74 pct closing at ...
Friday, 13 April 12
MINERS OPPOSE GOVTS EXPORT TAX PLAN - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, Indonesian mining companies have strongly protested the government’s plan to impose a 25 percent export tax on ...
Friday, 13 April 12
S&P CAUTIONS AGAINST NEW INDONESIAN MINING REGULATIONS - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe reported that, Investors may have expressed concerns about looming new mining regulations, but ratings agency Standard & Poor& ...
Thursday, 12 April 12
FIRST QUARTER OF 2012 SAW AN ADDITIONAL 24.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTERING THE FLEET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The inflow of newbuilt dry bulk vessels was larger than expected in the first quarter of 2012. As much as 24.2 million DWT were added to the fleet. ...
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Showing 4766 to 4770 news of total 6871 |
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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