We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 17 April 10
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - BIMCO
 Strong Chinese steel market is set to cushion the flood of new Capesize vessels entering the dry bulk fleet Demand: The first quarter of 2010 saw ups and down for the BDI with the index hovering around 3,000. It seems as if the market is balanced on a knife edge. High supply is likely to overmatch even very healthy demand growth rates – strongly dependant on China.
Chinese iron ore imports continue to remain firm. In the first quarter of this year, China has imported an average of 51.68 million tons (mt) of ore. In 2009, iron ore imports reached a monthly average of 52.37mt, leaving this year’s ore imports just 1% short of 2009 levels, but still very healthy at 14.7mt (40%) more than 2008 levels. With steel prices rising above those of 2009 – Chinese iron ore imports will continue as the prime driver in the dry bulk market.
However, the present spot rates are not expected to stay that low as time charter rates stay strong as illustrated by the reported BHP Billiton booking of a Capesize vessel for 3-5 months at USD/day 37,000 - more than 30% premium to spot. The current FFA (Forward Freight Agreement) rates also point in that direction with Capesize Q2 FFA going up to USD/day 35,750 and Panamax Q2 going down to USD/day 28,500.
Supply:
The active fleet has grown by 3.5% during first quarter of 2010, caused by deliveries of 16 million DWT of newbuildings offset by just 1 million DWT being demolished. Since BIMCO Bulletin 1/2010, the total dry bulk order book has increased by 5.5 million DWT. It seems as though the optimism from surprisingly healthy freight rate levels in 2009 has made contracting go on – despite the fact that the 285 million DWT that comprises the order book today is doomed to make challenging markets in short as well as long-term.
Year-to-date deliveries in capesize amount to 47 ships comprising 8.7 million new DWT, resulting in an increased fleet size of 5% so far in 2010 and active Capesize vessel number 1,000 has just been delivered. At the beginning of 2009, 822 Capesize vessels were active, but an inflow of 112 newbuildings and 29 converted vessels was added to the existing fleet, counterbalanced by just 9 demolitions, leaving a fleet tonnage growth of 18.5% in 2009.
An additional 305 Capesize vessels are scheduled for delivery in 2010, but “only” 183 will hit the water, when applying the BIMCO assumptions for supply forecast as described next to the graphics. In total, this will in turn mean that Capesize tonnage could grow by 21% when fine-tuning for an average scrapping age of 26 years for Capesize vessels
as compared to the average of 30 years for the overall fleet.
BIMCO forecasts inflow of new dry bulk tonnage in 2010 to reach 76 million DWT, offset by demolition of as much as 13 million DWT. This could make the fleet grow by 14% in 2010 as compared to 10% in 2009. Deliveries in 2011 are forecast to be even higher before supply growth comes down in 2012.
Clarkson’s have scheduled deliveries of 120-130 million DWT in 2010. BIMCO assumes that 10% of the entire order book will not be built and one third of the rest will be deferred by one year. Furthermore, the demolition potential is calculated to 49 million DWT, equal to all vessels aged 30 or above to be demolished by the end of 2013.
Outlook:
The fortunes of the dry bulk markets are basically down to the fortunes of China. March was the 13th straight month that the official Chinese PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) has stood above the threshold of 50 that demarcates expansion from contraction, indicating that the Chinese economy is on a stable and relatively fast growth track. PMI rose to 55.1% in March, up 3.1% on last month, according to data released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing.
The housing market and huge infrastructure projects have been primary beneficiaries of the Chinese Government’s stimulus package. With the construction sector being the number one steel user, consuming around 50% of Chinese steel, it goes without saying that a continuance of the strength in this sector is vital for the health of the dry bulk freight rates.
Freight rates are forecast by MSI to drift sideways on current levels over the next 6 months. Capesize rates are forecast to stay around USD 30-35,000 per day while the smaller vessel types could see rates go down from current levels to around USD 16-24,000 per day.
Current news:
BHP Billiton has reached agreement to sell the majority of its iron ore to Asian steel mills on shorter term contracts, ending more than 40 years of annual pricing. Brazilian Vale have also inked new iron ore prices – resulting in price hikes of around 90%– indicating a continued strong demand for the vital raw material in steel production. Contract prices for coking coal are also expected higher.
Meanwhile, the China-Rio Tinto bribery case has just been settled. The court in Shanghai sentenced the four convicted Australian mining giant Rio Tinto employees to prison for a total 39 years. They were found guilty after having admitted to accepting about USD 13 million in bribes from private steel mills that wanted to avoid purchasing iron ore from more costly state-run mills. The arrangement undercut the state’s China Iron and Steel Association’s desire for a united front in negotiating with Australian suppliers. Shortly after the verdict the employees were sacked for clear violation of Chinese Law and Rio Tinto’s code of conduct. China claims its steel sector paid as much at USD 160 million too much last year for iron ore because of bribery and espionage. While the three Chinese defendants have decided to appeal terms, the Australian national Stern Hu appears to be the only one not appealing terms.
Source: Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 27 June 12
DIRECTORATE GENERAL OF MINERAL AND COAL OF INDONESIA INTRODUCES ON-LINE SYSTEM FOR MINING PRODUCTS EXPORT APPROVAL
COALspot.com - Directorate General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia has released "Clear and Clean" certificate for another 33 coal miners ...
Monday, 25 June 12
RIO TINTO MAKES FIRST COAL SHIPMENT FROM MOZAMBIQUE
Rio Tinto has started exporting premium hard coking coal from its Benga Mine in the Moatize Basin in Mozambique. The first shipment of 34,000 tonnes ...
Sunday, 24 June 12
SUPRAMAX FREIGHT MARKET FIRMED UP FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This week all the segments gained and marked was firm in the Supramax and Handy size sector, where as the Cape and Panamax inde ...
Saturday, 23 June 12
COAL PRICES APPETITE FOR ROLLER-COASTER RIDES
COALspot.com - SGX AsiaClear OTC Coal Swaps have suffered something of a roller-coaster ride in terms of prices during this week. SGX’s Indone ...
Friday, 22 June 12
PRESENT SPOT WEAKNESS IS TEMPORARY, SEASONAL AND RISE AS WINTER APPROACHES - BUMI
COALspot.com - PT Bumi Resources Tbk, the world’s one of the largest coal producer and Indonesia’s largest multi grade coal miner has no ...
|
|
|
Showing 4681 to 4685 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
|
| |
| |
|
