We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 17 April 10
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - BIMCO
 Strong Chinese steel market is set to cushion the flood of new Capesize vessels entering the dry bulk fleet Demand: The first quarter of 2010 saw ups and down for the BDI with the index hovering around 3,000. It seems as if the market is balanced on a knife edge. High supply is likely to overmatch even very healthy demand growth rates – strongly dependant on China.
Chinese iron ore imports continue to remain firm. In the first quarter of this year, China has imported an average of 51.68 million tons (mt) of ore. In 2009, iron ore imports reached a monthly average of 52.37mt, leaving this year’s ore imports just 1% short of 2009 levels, but still very healthy at 14.7mt (40%) more than 2008 levels. With steel prices rising above those of 2009 – Chinese iron ore imports will continue as the prime driver in the dry bulk market.
However, the present spot rates are not expected to stay that low as time charter rates stay strong as illustrated by the reported BHP Billiton booking of a Capesize vessel for 3-5 months at USD/day 37,000 - more than 30% premium to spot. The current FFA (Forward Freight Agreement) rates also point in that direction with Capesize Q2 FFA going up to USD/day 35,750 and Panamax Q2 going down to USD/day 28,500.
Supply:
The active fleet has grown by 3.5% during first quarter of 2010, caused by deliveries of 16 million DWT of newbuildings offset by just 1 million DWT being demolished. Since BIMCO Bulletin 1/2010, the total dry bulk order book has increased by 5.5 million DWT. It seems as though the optimism from surprisingly healthy freight rate levels in 2009 has made contracting go on – despite the fact that the 285 million DWT that comprises the order book today is doomed to make challenging markets in short as well as long-term.
Year-to-date deliveries in capesize amount to 47 ships comprising 8.7 million new DWT, resulting in an increased fleet size of 5% so far in 2010 and active Capesize vessel number 1,000 has just been delivered. At the beginning of 2009, 822 Capesize vessels were active, but an inflow of 112 newbuildings and 29 converted vessels was added to the existing fleet, counterbalanced by just 9 demolitions, leaving a fleet tonnage growth of 18.5% in 2009.
An additional 305 Capesize vessels are scheduled for delivery in 2010, but “only” 183 will hit the water, when applying the BIMCO assumptions for supply forecast as described next to the graphics. In total, this will in turn mean that Capesize tonnage could grow by 21% when fine-tuning for an average scrapping age of 26 years for Capesize vessels
as compared to the average of 30 years for the overall fleet.
BIMCO forecasts inflow of new dry bulk tonnage in 2010 to reach 76 million DWT, offset by demolition of as much as 13 million DWT. This could make the fleet grow by 14% in 2010 as compared to 10% in 2009. Deliveries in 2011 are forecast to be even higher before supply growth comes down in 2012.
Clarkson’s have scheduled deliveries of 120-130 million DWT in 2010. BIMCO assumes that 10% of the entire order book will not be built and one third of the rest will be deferred by one year. Furthermore, the demolition potential is calculated to 49 million DWT, equal to all vessels aged 30 or above to be demolished by the end of 2013.
Outlook:
The fortunes of the dry bulk markets are basically down to the fortunes of China. March was the 13th straight month that the official Chinese PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) has stood above the threshold of 50 that demarcates expansion from contraction, indicating that the Chinese economy is on a stable and relatively fast growth track. PMI rose to 55.1% in March, up 3.1% on last month, according to data released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing.
The housing market and huge infrastructure projects have been primary beneficiaries of the Chinese Government’s stimulus package. With the construction sector being the number one steel user, consuming around 50% of Chinese steel, it goes without saying that a continuance of the strength in this sector is vital for the health of the dry bulk freight rates.
Freight rates are forecast by MSI to drift sideways on current levels over the next 6 months. Capesize rates are forecast to stay around USD 30-35,000 per day while the smaller vessel types could see rates go down from current levels to around USD 16-24,000 per day.
Current news:
BHP Billiton has reached agreement to sell the majority of its iron ore to Asian steel mills on shorter term contracts, ending more than 40 years of annual pricing. Brazilian Vale have also inked new iron ore prices – resulting in price hikes of around 90%– indicating a continued strong demand for the vital raw material in steel production. Contract prices for coking coal are also expected higher.
Meanwhile, the China-Rio Tinto bribery case has just been settled. The court in Shanghai sentenced the four convicted Australian mining giant Rio Tinto employees to prison for a total 39 years. They were found guilty after having admitted to accepting about USD 13 million in bribes from private steel mills that wanted to avoid purchasing iron ore from more costly state-run mills. The arrangement undercut the state’s China Iron and Steel Association’s desire for a united front in negotiating with Australian suppliers. Shortly after the verdict the employees were sacked for clear violation of Chinese Law and Rio Tinto’s code of conduct. China claims its steel sector paid as much at USD 160 million too much last year for iron ore because of bribery and espionage. While the three Chinese defendants have decided to appeal terms, the Australian national Stern Hu appears to be the only one not appealing terms.
Source: Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Friday, 26 October 12
DRY BULK MARKET FALLS ON WORRIES THAT RECENT RALLY WILL BE SHORTLIVED - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market retreated yesterday as a result of a plunge of the Capesize dry bulk carriers' segment, after their latest rally. As a result, ...
Tuesday, 23 October 12
INDONESIA SETS DMO FOR NEXT YEAR
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government has declared the quantity of coal to be supplied to domestic market in 2013 recently under DMO regulation. ...
Sunday, 21 October 12
BUMA HAS PRODUCED 25.0 MILLION TONS OF COAL YEAR TO DATE
COALspot.com - PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., has removed 33.2 million bcm* (+5.5% YoY) of Overburden in September 2012 totaled while coal produc ...
Saturday, 20 October 12
SUPRAMAX FREIGHT EXPECTED TO BE FLAT - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The shipping market continued to be quite active with quite lot of cargoes fixed for in the cape and panamax sector.
The BDI was ...
Thursday, 18 October 12
INDO-INDIA, LARGE ECO SUPRA FIXED AT USD 11000 - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
Atlantic market remains quiet due to lack of cargoes and more supply of ships. Rates from Cont to East Med were around USD 14k and Black Sea ...
|
|
|
Showing 4531 to 4535 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- White Energy Company Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
|
| |
| |
|
