We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 17 April 10
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - BIMCO
 Strong Chinese steel market is set to cushion the flood of new Capesize vessels entering the dry bulk fleet Demand: The first quarter of 2010 saw ups and down for the BDI with the index hovering around 3,000. It seems as if the market is balanced on a knife edge. High supply is likely to overmatch even very healthy demand growth rates – strongly dependant on China.
Chinese iron ore imports continue to remain firm. In the first quarter of this year, China has imported an average of 51.68 million tons (mt) of ore. In 2009, iron ore imports reached a monthly average of 52.37mt, leaving this year’s ore imports just 1% short of 2009 levels, but still very healthy at 14.7mt (40%) more than 2008 levels. With steel prices rising above those of 2009 – Chinese iron ore imports will continue as the prime driver in the dry bulk market.
However, the present spot rates are not expected to stay that low as time charter rates stay strong as illustrated by the reported BHP Billiton booking of a Capesize vessel for 3-5 months at USD/day 37,000 - more than 30% premium to spot. The current FFA (Forward Freight Agreement) rates also point in that direction with Capesize Q2 FFA going up to USD/day 35,750 and Panamax Q2 going down to USD/day 28,500.
Supply:
The active fleet has grown by 3.5% during first quarter of 2010, caused by deliveries of 16 million DWT of newbuildings offset by just 1 million DWT being demolished. Since BIMCO Bulletin 1/2010, the total dry bulk order book has increased by 5.5 million DWT. It seems as though the optimism from surprisingly healthy freight rate levels in 2009 has made contracting go on – despite the fact that the 285 million DWT that comprises the order book today is doomed to make challenging markets in short as well as long-term.
Year-to-date deliveries in capesize amount to 47 ships comprising 8.7 million new DWT, resulting in an increased fleet size of 5% so far in 2010 and active Capesize vessel number 1,000 has just been delivered. At the beginning of 2009, 822 Capesize vessels were active, but an inflow of 112 newbuildings and 29 converted vessels was added to the existing fleet, counterbalanced by just 9 demolitions, leaving a fleet tonnage growth of 18.5% in 2009.
An additional 305 Capesize vessels are scheduled for delivery in 2010, but “only” 183 will hit the water, when applying the BIMCO assumptions for supply forecast as described next to the graphics. In total, this will in turn mean that Capesize tonnage could grow by 21% when fine-tuning for an average scrapping age of 26 years for Capesize vessels
as compared to the average of 30 years for the overall fleet.
BIMCO forecasts inflow of new dry bulk tonnage in 2010 to reach 76 million DWT, offset by demolition of as much as 13 million DWT. This could make the fleet grow by 14% in 2010 as compared to 10% in 2009. Deliveries in 2011 are forecast to be even higher before supply growth comes down in 2012.
Clarkson’s have scheduled deliveries of 120-130 million DWT in 2010. BIMCO assumes that 10% of the entire order book will not be built and one third of the rest will be deferred by one year. Furthermore, the demolition potential is calculated to 49 million DWT, equal to all vessels aged 30 or above to be demolished by the end of 2013.
Outlook:
The fortunes of the dry bulk markets are basically down to the fortunes of China. March was the 13th straight month that the official Chinese PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) has stood above the threshold of 50 that demarcates expansion from contraction, indicating that the Chinese economy is on a stable and relatively fast growth track. PMI rose to 55.1% in March, up 3.1% on last month, according to data released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing.
The housing market and huge infrastructure projects have been primary beneficiaries of the Chinese Government’s stimulus package. With the construction sector being the number one steel user, consuming around 50% of Chinese steel, it goes without saying that a continuance of the strength in this sector is vital for the health of the dry bulk freight rates.
Freight rates are forecast by MSI to drift sideways on current levels over the next 6 months. Capesize rates are forecast to stay around USD 30-35,000 per day while the smaller vessel types could see rates go down from current levels to around USD 16-24,000 per day.
Current news:
BHP Billiton has reached agreement to sell the majority of its iron ore to Asian steel mills on shorter term contracts, ending more than 40 years of annual pricing. Brazilian Vale have also inked new iron ore prices – resulting in price hikes of around 90%– indicating a continued strong demand for the vital raw material in steel production. Contract prices for coking coal are also expected higher.
Meanwhile, the China-Rio Tinto bribery case has just been settled. The court in Shanghai sentenced the four convicted Australian mining giant Rio Tinto employees to prison for a total 39 years. They were found guilty after having admitted to accepting about USD 13 million in bribes from private steel mills that wanted to avoid purchasing iron ore from more costly state-run mills. The arrangement undercut the state’s China Iron and Steel Association’s desire for a united front in negotiating with Australian suppliers. Shortly after the verdict the employees were sacked for clear violation of Chinese Law and Rio Tinto’s code of conduct. China claims its steel sector paid as much at USD 160 million too much last year for iron ore because of bribery and espionage. While the three Chinese defendants have decided to appeal terms, the Australian national Stern Hu appears to be the only one not appealing terms.
Source: Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Monday, 19 April 10
PLN TO OPERATE COAL MINES IN BID TO FUEL POWER PLANTS
The Jakarta Globe reported that, state electricity utility PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara said on Sunday that it aimed to take over operation of small ...
Sunday, 18 April 10
GOVT FORMS PANEL FOR RS 12,000-CR (US$ 2.711 BILLION) COAL INDIA IPO - ECONOMIC TIMES
Economic Times reported that, the government has formed an inter-ministerial panel to carry forward the proposed Rs 12,000-crore (US$ 2.711 billion) ...
Sunday, 18 April 10
THE FUTURES FOR THREE YEARS (2010-2012) FOR PANAMAX WAS AT AROUND US$ 21500 PER DAY - VISTAAR
COALspot.com: The BDI indices up by 3.30 pct and overall market continued to be firm except for India to Fareast.
“The cape index for the f ...
Saturday, 17 April 10
DRY BULK MARKET EDGES HIGHER ON STRONGER DEMAND
The dry bulk market managed to inch higher by the end of the week as brokers indicated that stronger cargo demand pushed freight rates that much hig ...
Friday, 16 April 10
KRISHNAPATNAM PORT IS IRONING ITS WAY INTO RECORD BOOKS
COALspot.com: Krishnapatnam Port achieved a new benchmark by loading 60,021 MT of Iron Ore fines in just 24 hrs surpassing its previous record of 54 ...
|
|
|
Showing 5876 to 5880 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ASAPP Information Group - India
|
| |
| |
|
