We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 17 April 10
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - BIMCO
 Strong Chinese steel market is set to cushion the flood of new Capesize vessels entering the dry bulk fleet Demand: The first quarter of 2010 saw ups and down for the BDI with the index hovering around 3,000. It seems as if the market is balanced on a knife edge. High supply is likely to overmatch even very healthy demand growth rates – strongly dependant on China.
Chinese iron ore imports continue to remain firm. In the first quarter of this year, China has imported an average of 51.68 million tons (mt) of ore. In 2009, iron ore imports reached a monthly average of 52.37mt, leaving this year’s ore imports just 1% short of 2009 levels, but still very healthy at 14.7mt (40%) more than 2008 levels. With steel prices rising above those of 2009 – Chinese iron ore imports will continue as the prime driver in the dry bulk market.
However, the present spot rates are not expected to stay that low as time charter rates stay strong as illustrated by the reported BHP Billiton booking of a Capesize vessel for 3-5 months at USD/day 37,000 - more than 30% premium to spot. The current FFA (Forward Freight Agreement) rates also point in that direction with Capesize Q2 FFA going up to USD/day 35,750 and Panamax Q2 going down to USD/day 28,500.
Supply:
The active fleet has grown by 3.5% during first quarter of 2010, caused by deliveries of 16 million DWT of newbuildings offset by just 1 million DWT being demolished. Since BIMCO Bulletin 1/2010, the total dry bulk order book has increased by 5.5 million DWT. It seems as though the optimism from surprisingly healthy freight rate levels in 2009 has made contracting go on – despite the fact that the 285 million DWT that comprises the order book today is doomed to make challenging markets in short as well as long-term.
Year-to-date deliveries in capesize amount to 47 ships comprising 8.7 million new DWT, resulting in an increased fleet size of 5% so far in 2010 and active Capesize vessel number 1,000 has just been delivered. At the beginning of 2009, 822 Capesize vessels were active, but an inflow of 112 newbuildings and 29 converted vessels was added to the existing fleet, counterbalanced by just 9 demolitions, leaving a fleet tonnage growth of 18.5% in 2009.
An additional 305 Capesize vessels are scheduled for delivery in 2010, but “only” 183 will hit the water, when applying the BIMCO assumptions for supply forecast as described next to the graphics. In total, this will in turn mean that Capesize tonnage could grow by 21% when fine-tuning for an average scrapping age of 26 years for Capesize vessels
as compared to the average of 30 years for the overall fleet.
BIMCO forecasts inflow of new dry bulk tonnage in 2010 to reach 76 million DWT, offset by demolition of as much as 13 million DWT. This could make the fleet grow by 14% in 2010 as compared to 10% in 2009. Deliveries in 2011 are forecast to be even higher before supply growth comes down in 2012.
Clarkson’s have scheduled deliveries of 120-130 million DWT in 2010. BIMCO assumes that 10% of the entire order book will not be built and one third of the rest will be deferred by one year. Furthermore, the demolition potential is calculated to 49 million DWT, equal to all vessels aged 30 or above to be demolished by the end of 2013.
Outlook:
The fortunes of the dry bulk markets are basically down to the fortunes of China. March was the 13th straight month that the official Chinese PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) has stood above the threshold of 50 that demarcates expansion from contraction, indicating that the Chinese economy is on a stable and relatively fast growth track. PMI rose to 55.1% in March, up 3.1% on last month, according to data released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing.
The housing market and huge infrastructure projects have been primary beneficiaries of the Chinese Government’s stimulus package. With the construction sector being the number one steel user, consuming around 50% of Chinese steel, it goes without saying that a continuance of the strength in this sector is vital for the health of the dry bulk freight rates.
Freight rates are forecast by MSI to drift sideways on current levels over the next 6 months. Capesize rates are forecast to stay around USD 30-35,000 per day while the smaller vessel types could see rates go down from current levels to around USD 16-24,000 per day.
Current news:
BHP Billiton has reached agreement to sell the majority of its iron ore to Asian steel mills on shorter term contracts, ending more than 40 years of annual pricing. Brazilian Vale have also inked new iron ore prices – resulting in price hikes of around 90%– indicating a continued strong demand for the vital raw material in steel production. Contract prices for coking coal are also expected higher.
Meanwhile, the China-Rio Tinto bribery case has just been settled. The court in Shanghai sentenced the four convicted Australian mining giant Rio Tinto employees to prison for a total 39 years. They were found guilty after having admitted to accepting about USD 13 million in bribes from private steel mills that wanted to avoid purchasing iron ore from more costly state-run mills. The arrangement undercut the state’s China Iron and Steel Association’s desire for a united front in negotiating with Australian suppliers. Shortly after the verdict the employees were sacked for clear violation of Chinese Law and Rio Tinto’s code of conduct. China claims its steel sector paid as much at USD 160 million too much last year for iron ore because of bribery and espionage. While the three Chinese defendants have decided to appeal terms, the Australian national Stern Hu appears to be the only one not appealing terms.
Source: Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Sunday, 16 May 10
INDIKA ENERGY & COAL ASSETS EXPANSION
Insider stories reported that, PT Indika Energy Tbk (INDY) has three portfolio coal assets, PT Kideco Jaya Agung, coal asset in East Kalimanta ...
Saturday, 15 May 10
THE AVERAGE CHARTER HIRE FOR CAPE REACHES US$ 49,931 PER DAY - VISTAAR SINGAPORE
COALspot.com: "The freight market was extremely buoyant this week with BDI almost up by 9 pct and the market was very firm in Feast/SE Asia sec ...
Saturday, 15 May 10
DRY BULK MARKET POSTS HEALTHY WEEKLY GAINS
The dry bulk market has reached new highs this week, the second consecutive solid one, with the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BD ...
Friday, 14 May 10
JSW BUYS COAL MINES IN US, PRODUCTION STARTS IN SEPT
JSW Steel on Friday said it has completed $100 million acquisition of coking coal assets in the US and will start production from September to parti ...
Friday, 14 May 10
KANGAROO RESOURCES TO ACQUIRE INDONESIAN COAL PROJECTS - PROACTIVE INVESTORS
Proactive Investors reported that, Kangaroo Resources (ASX: KRL) is preparing to complete the acquisition of its five outstanding Indonesian coal pr ...
|
|
|
Showing 5836 to 5840 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
|
| |
| |
|
