We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 17 April 10
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - BIMCO
 Strong Chinese steel market is set to cushion the flood of new Capesize vessels entering the dry bulk fleet Demand: The first quarter of 2010 saw ups and down for the BDI with the index hovering around 3,000. It seems as if the market is balanced on a knife edge. High supply is likely to overmatch even very healthy demand growth rates – strongly dependant on China.
Chinese iron ore imports continue to remain firm. In the first quarter of this year, China has imported an average of 51.68 million tons (mt) of ore. In 2009, iron ore imports reached a monthly average of 52.37mt, leaving this year’s ore imports just 1% short of 2009 levels, but still very healthy at 14.7mt (40%) more than 2008 levels. With steel prices rising above those of 2009 – Chinese iron ore imports will continue as the prime driver in the dry bulk market.
However, the present spot rates are not expected to stay that low as time charter rates stay strong as illustrated by the reported BHP Billiton booking of a Capesize vessel for 3-5 months at USD/day 37,000 - more than 30% premium to spot. The current FFA (Forward Freight Agreement) rates also point in that direction with Capesize Q2 FFA going up to USD/day 35,750 and Panamax Q2 going down to USD/day 28,500.
Supply:
The active fleet has grown by 3.5% during first quarter of 2010, caused by deliveries of 16 million DWT of newbuildings offset by just 1 million DWT being demolished. Since BIMCO Bulletin 1/2010, the total dry bulk order book has increased by 5.5 million DWT. It seems as though the optimism from surprisingly healthy freight rate levels in 2009 has made contracting go on – despite the fact that the 285 million DWT that comprises the order book today is doomed to make challenging markets in short as well as long-term.
Year-to-date deliveries in capesize amount to 47 ships comprising 8.7 million new DWT, resulting in an increased fleet size of 5% so far in 2010 and active Capesize vessel number 1,000 has just been delivered. At the beginning of 2009, 822 Capesize vessels were active, but an inflow of 112 newbuildings and 29 converted vessels was added to the existing fleet, counterbalanced by just 9 demolitions, leaving a fleet tonnage growth of 18.5% in 2009.
An additional 305 Capesize vessels are scheduled for delivery in 2010, but “only” 183 will hit the water, when applying the BIMCO assumptions for supply forecast as described next to the graphics. In total, this will in turn mean that Capesize tonnage could grow by 21% when fine-tuning for an average scrapping age of 26 years for Capesize vessels
as compared to the average of 30 years for the overall fleet.
BIMCO forecasts inflow of new dry bulk tonnage in 2010 to reach 76 million DWT, offset by demolition of as much as 13 million DWT. This could make the fleet grow by 14% in 2010 as compared to 10% in 2009. Deliveries in 2011 are forecast to be even higher before supply growth comes down in 2012.
Clarkson’s have scheduled deliveries of 120-130 million DWT in 2010. BIMCO assumes that 10% of the entire order book will not be built and one third of the rest will be deferred by one year. Furthermore, the demolition potential is calculated to 49 million DWT, equal to all vessels aged 30 or above to be demolished by the end of 2013.
Outlook:
The fortunes of the dry bulk markets are basically down to the fortunes of China. March was the 13th straight month that the official Chinese PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) has stood above the threshold of 50 that demarcates expansion from contraction, indicating that the Chinese economy is on a stable and relatively fast growth track. PMI rose to 55.1% in March, up 3.1% on last month, according to data released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing.
The housing market and huge infrastructure projects have been primary beneficiaries of the Chinese Government’s stimulus package. With the construction sector being the number one steel user, consuming around 50% of Chinese steel, it goes without saying that a continuance of the strength in this sector is vital for the health of the dry bulk freight rates.
Freight rates are forecast by MSI to drift sideways on current levels over the next 6 months. Capesize rates are forecast to stay around USD 30-35,000 per day while the smaller vessel types could see rates go down from current levels to around USD 16-24,000 per day.
Current news:
BHP Billiton has reached agreement to sell the majority of its iron ore to Asian steel mills on shorter term contracts, ending more than 40 years of annual pricing. Brazilian Vale have also inked new iron ore prices – resulting in price hikes of around 90%– indicating a continued strong demand for the vital raw material in steel production. Contract prices for coking coal are also expected higher.
Meanwhile, the China-Rio Tinto bribery case has just been settled. The court in Shanghai sentenced the four convicted Australian mining giant Rio Tinto employees to prison for a total 39 years. They were found guilty after having admitted to accepting about USD 13 million in bribes from private steel mills that wanted to avoid purchasing iron ore from more costly state-run mills. The arrangement undercut the state’s China Iron and Steel Association’s desire for a united front in negotiating with Australian suppliers. Shortly after the verdict the employees were sacked for clear violation of Chinese Law and Rio Tinto’s code of conduct. China claims its steel sector paid as much at USD 160 million too much last year for iron ore because of bribery and espionage. While the three Chinese defendants have decided to appeal terms, the Australian national Stern Hu appears to be the only one not appealing terms.
Source: Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Thursday, 17 June 10
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FOR JUNE IS US$ 97.22/TON UP 5.59 PERCENT
COALspot.com: The directorate general of mineral, coal and geothermal of Indonesia has been publishing a monthly coal price reference (HBA) to be us ...
Thursday, 17 June 10
COAL EXPLORATION & DEVELOPMENTS HOTPOTS CONFERENCE
Press Release: The Coal Exploration and Developments Hotspots conference will bring together a panel of more than 20 of the world’s lead ...
Thursday, 17 June 10
AUSTRALIA'S LEIGHTON WINS $1.3 BILLION OF NEW WORK - THE JAKARTA POST
Australian construction and contract mining group Leighton Holdings Ltd. said Thursday it has won 1.5 billion Australian dollars ($1.3 billion) of n ...
Wednesday, 16 June 10
INDONESIAS STATE OWNED ELECTRICITY COMPANY WILL CONSUME 95.30 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN 2014
COALspot.com: Indonesia's state owned electricity company forecasted its coal requirement in 2014 would be around 95 million tons. ...
Wednesday, 16 June 10
MADHYA PRADESH GOVT IMPORT 50K METRIC TONNES OF COAL FROM INDONESIA - DNA INDIA
DNA India reported that, the Madhya Pradesh government has imported 50,000 metric tonnes of coal from Indonesia to deal with its shortage which is a ...
|
|
|
Showing 5776 to 5780 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
|
| |
| |
|
