We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 17 April 10
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - BIMCO
 Strong Chinese steel market is set to cushion the flood of new Capesize vessels entering the dry bulk fleet Demand: The first quarter of 2010 saw ups and down for the BDI with the index hovering around 3,000. It seems as if the market is balanced on a knife edge. High supply is likely to overmatch even very healthy demand growth rates – strongly dependant on China.
Chinese iron ore imports continue to remain firm. In the first quarter of this year, China has imported an average of 51.68 million tons (mt) of ore. In 2009, iron ore imports reached a monthly average of 52.37mt, leaving this year’s ore imports just 1% short of 2009 levels, but still very healthy at 14.7mt (40%) more than 2008 levels. With steel prices rising above those of 2009 – Chinese iron ore imports will continue as the prime driver in the dry bulk market.
However, the present spot rates are not expected to stay that low as time charter rates stay strong as illustrated by the reported BHP Billiton booking of a Capesize vessel for 3-5 months at USD/day 37,000 - more than 30% premium to spot. The current FFA (Forward Freight Agreement) rates also point in that direction with Capesize Q2 FFA going up to USD/day 35,750 and Panamax Q2 going down to USD/day 28,500.
Supply:
The active fleet has grown by 3.5% during first quarter of 2010, caused by deliveries of 16 million DWT of newbuildings offset by just 1 million DWT being demolished. Since BIMCO Bulletin 1/2010, the total dry bulk order book has increased by 5.5 million DWT. It seems as though the optimism from surprisingly healthy freight rate levels in 2009 has made contracting go on – despite the fact that the 285 million DWT that comprises the order book today is doomed to make challenging markets in short as well as long-term.
Year-to-date deliveries in capesize amount to 47 ships comprising 8.7 million new DWT, resulting in an increased fleet size of 5% so far in 2010 and active Capesize vessel number 1,000 has just been delivered. At the beginning of 2009, 822 Capesize vessels were active, but an inflow of 112 newbuildings and 29 converted vessels was added to the existing fleet, counterbalanced by just 9 demolitions, leaving a fleet tonnage growth of 18.5% in 2009.
An additional 305 Capesize vessels are scheduled for delivery in 2010, but “only” 183 will hit the water, when applying the BIMCO assumptions for supply forecast as described next to the graphics. In total, this will in turn mean that Capesize tonnage could grow by 21% when fine-tuning for an average scrapping age of 26 years for Capesize vessels
as compared to the average of 30 years for the overall fleet.
BIMCO forecasts inflow of new dry bulk tonnage in 2010 to reach 76 million DWT, offset by demolition of as much as 13 million DWT. This could make the fleet grow by 14% in 2010 as compared to 10% in 2009. Deliveries in 2011 are forecast to be even higher before supply growth comes down in 2012.
Clarkson’s have scheduled deliveries of 120-130 million DWT in 2010. BIMCO assumes that 10% of the entire order book will not be built and one third of the rest will be deferred by one year. Furthermore, the demolition potential is calculated to 49 million DWT, equal to all vessels aged 30 or above to be demolished by the end of 2013.
Outlook:
The fortunes of the dry bulk markets are basically down to the fortunes of China. March was the 13th straight month that the official Chinese PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) has stood above the threshold of 50 that demarcates expansion from contraction, indicating that the Chinese economy is on a stable and relatively fast growth track. PMI rose to 55.1% in March, up 3.1% on last month, according to data released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing.
The housing market and huge infrastructure projects have been primary beneficiaries of the Chinese Government’s stimulus package. With the construction sector being the number one steel user, consuming around 50% of Chinese steel, it goes without saying that a continuance of the strength in this sector is vital for the health of the dry bulk freight rates.
Freight rates are forecast by MSI to drift sideways on current levels over the next 6 months. Capesize rates are forecast to stay around USD 30-35,000 per day while the smaller vessel types could see rates go down from current levels to around USD 16-24,000 per day.
Current news:
BHP Billiton has reached agreement to sell the majority of its iron ore to Asian steel mills on shorter term contracts, ending more than 40 years of annual pricing. Brazilian Vale have also inked new iron ore prices – resulting in price hikes of around 90%– indicating a continued strong demand for the vital raw material in steel production. Contract prices for coking coal are also expected higher.
Meanwhile, the China-Rio Tinto bribery case has just been settled. The court in Shanghai sentenced the four convicted Australian mining giant Rio Tinto employees to prison for a total 39 years. They were found guilty after having admitted to accepting about USD 13 million in bribes from private steel mills that wanted to avoid purchasing iron ore from more costly state-run mills. The arrangement undercut the state’s China Iron and Steel Association’s desire for a united front in negotiating with Australian suppliers. Shortly after the verdict the employees were sacked for clear violation of Chinese Law and Rio Tinto’s code of conduct. China claims its steel sector paid as much at USD 160 million too much last year for iron ore because of bribery and espionage. While the three Chinese defendants have decided to appeal terms, the Australian national Stern Hu appears to be the only one not appealing terms.
Source: Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Monday, 26 July 10
CEMENT MAKERS EXPLORE NEW FUELS TO REPLACE COAL - ECONOMIC TIMES
Economic Times reported that, As the cement industry reels under high raw material costs and reduced coal linkages, companies are exploring alternat ...
Saturday, 24 July 10
INDONESIAS BUKIT ASAM H1 2010, SALES RAISED 10% TO 6.44 MILLION TONS
COALspot.com: PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam (PTBA), Indonesian state owned mining company’s H1 2010, sales raised 10% to 6.44 million tons. T ...
Saturday, 24 July 10
INDONESIAN COAL MINERS ARE REQUIRED TO SUPPLY 64.96 MLN TONS OF COAL TO DOMESTIC MARKET IN 2010
COALspot.com : Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources of Indonesia has issued a ministerial degree related to Domestic market obligation (DMO) for ...
Saturday, 24 July 10
THE BDI SEEMS TO BE RECOVERING AND WAS UP BY ABOUT 6 PCT - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com: "The BDI seems to be recovering and was up by about 6 pct this week after losing for almost last 7 weeks", said Capt. Reddy, ...
Saturday, 24 July 10
ANALYSIS - GROWTH IN VESSEL SUPPLY PRESSURES OCEAN FREIGHT RATES
It's common to use global shipping rate trends as a proxy of global economic health. If demand for goods and raw materials are strong, so should it ...
|
|
|
Showing 5701 to 5705 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Coal Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
|
| |
| |
|
