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Saturday, 17 April 10
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - BIMCO
 Strong Chinese steel market is set to cushion the flood of new Capesize vessels entering the dry bulk fleet Demand: The first quarter of 2010 saw ups and down for the BDI with the index hovering around 3,000. It seems as if the market is balanced on a knife edge. High supply is likely to overmatch even very healthy demand growth rates – strongly dependant on China.
Chinese iron ore imports continue to remain firm. In the first quarter of this year, China has imported an average of 51.68 million tons (mt) of ore. In 2009, iron ore imports reached a monthly average of 52.37mt, leaving this year’s ore imports just 1% short of 2009 levels, but still very healthy at 14.7mt (40%) more than 2008 levels. With steel prices rising above those of 2009 – Chinese iron ore imports will continue as the prime driver in the dry bulk market.
However, the present spot rates are not expected to stay that low as time charter rates stay strong as illustrated by the reported BHP Billiton booking of a Capesize vessel for 3-5 months at USD/day 37,000 - more than 30% premium to spot. The current FFA (Forward Freight Agreement) rates also point in that direction with Capesize Q2 FFA going up to USD/day 35,750 and Panamax Q2 going down to USD/day 28,500.
Supply:
The active fleet has grown by 3.5% during first quarter of 2010, caused by deliveries of 16 million DWT of newbuildings offset by just 1 million DWT being demolished. Since BIMCO Bulletin 1/2010, the total dry bulk order book has increased by 5.5 million DWT. It seems as though the optimism from surprisingly healthy freight rate levels in 2009 has made contracting go on – despite the fact that the 285 million DWT that comprises the order book today is doomed to make challenging markets in short as well as long-term.
Year-to-date deliveries in capesize amount to 47 ships comprising 8.7 million new DWT, resulting in an increased fleet size of 5% so far in 2010 and active Capesize vessel number 1,000 has just been delivered. At the beginning of 2009, 822 Capesize vessels were active, but an inflow of 112 newbuildings and 29 converted vessels was added to the existing fleet, counterbalanced by just 9 demolitions, leaving a fleet tonnage growth of 18.5% in 2009.
An additional 305 Capesize vessels are scheduled for delivery in 2010, but “only” 183 will hit the water, when applying the BIMCO assumptions for supply forecast as described next to the graphics. In total, this will in turn mean that Capesize tonnage could grow by 21% when fine-tuning for an average scrapping age of 26 years for Capesize vessels
as compared to the average of 30 years for the overall fleet.
BIMCO forecasts inflow of new dry bulk tonnage in 2010 to reach 76 million DWT, offset by demolition of as much as 13 million DWT. This could make the fleet grow by 14% in 2010 as compared to 10% in 2009. Deliveries in 2011 are forecast to be even higher before supply growth comes down in 2012.
Clarkson’s have scheduled deliveries of 120-130 million DWT in 2010. BIMCO assumes that 10% of the entire order book will not be built and one third of the rest will be deferred by one year. Furthermore, the demolition potential is calculated to 49 million DWT, equal to all vessels aged 30 or above to be demolished by the end of 2013.
Outlook:
The fortunes of the dry bulk markets are basically down to the fortunes of China. March was the 13th straight month that the official Chinese PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) has stood above the threshold of 50 that demarcates expansion from contraction, indicating that the Chinese economy is on a stable and relatively fast growth track. PMI rose to 55.1% in March, up 3.1% on last month, according to data released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing.
The housing market and huge infrastructure projects have been primary beneficiaries of the Chinese Government’s stimulus package. With the construction sector being the number one steel user, consuming around 50% of Chinese steel, it goes without saying that a continuance of the strength in this sector is vital for the health of the dry bulk freight rates.
Freight rates are forecast by MSI to drift sideways on current levels over the next 6 months. Capesize rates are forecast to stay around USD 30-35,000 per day while the smaller vessel types could see rates go down from current levels to around USD 16-24,000 per day.
Current news:
BHP Billiton has reached agreement to sell the majority of its iron ore to Asian steel mills on shorter term contracts, ending more than 40 years of annual pricing. Brazilian Vale have also inked new iron ore prices – resulting in price hikes of around 90%– indicating a continued strong demand for the vital raw material in steel production. Contract prices for coking coal are also expected higher.
Meanwhile, the China-Rio Tinto bribery case has just been settled. The court in Shanghai sentenced the four convicted Australian mining giant Rio Tinto employees to prison for a total 39 years. They were found guilty after having admitted to accepting about USD 13 million in bribes from private steel mills that wanted to avoid purchasing iron ore from more costly state-run mills. The arrangement undercut the state’s China Iron and Steel Association’s desire for a united front in negotiating with Australian suppliers. Shortly after the verdict the employees were sacked for clear violation of Chinese Law and Rio Tinto’s code of conduct. China claims its steel sector paid as much at USD 160 million too much last year for iron ore because of bribery and espionage. While the three Chinese defendants have decided to appeal terms, the Australian national Stern Hu appears to be the only one not appealing terms.
Source: Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 20 August 10
POWER COS SEEK MINING PARTNERS TO BID FOR 1,920-MW PROJECT
"A joint venture between the Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu governments for a pit-head power project, has been allotted the biggest coal block yet ...
Thursday, 19 August 10
INDONESIA EXPORTED 5.93 MLN TON OF COAL TO CHINA AND 3.52 MLN TONS TO INDIA IN JULY
COALspot.com: Indonesia shipped 3.52 million tones of thermal coal to India in July, fell 25.39 percent compared to June's exports of 4.71 million ...
Thursday, 19 August 10
WBPDCL INDIA LAUNCHES SPOT COAL TENDER
COALspot.com: The West Bengal Power Development Corporation Limited (WBPDCL ), A Govt. of West Bengal Enterprise, has launched spot contract tender ...
Thursday, 19 August 10
PANAMAX BACKED BY A STRONGER SHORT PERIOD MARKET AND SUPPORTED BY SOME FRESH REQUIREMENTS - FEARNBULK
Handy
The events of this week have confirmed our assessment of last week i.e. activity gradually picked up in the Atlantic with more enquiry seen ...
Thursday, 19 August 10
CSC TO SHIP COAL FOR NOROCHCHOLAI POWER PLANT
Daily Mirror reported that, coal for the Norochcholai Power Plant will be shipped to the country by the Ceylon Shipping Corporation (CSC) officials ...
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Showing 5656 to 5660 news of total 6871 |
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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