We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 17 April 10
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - BIMCO
 Strong Chinese steel market is set to cushion the flood of new Capesize vessels entering the dry bulk fleet Demand: The first quarter of 2010 saw ups and down for the BDI with the index hovering around 3,000. It seems as if the market is balanced on a knife edge. High supply is likely to overmatch even very healthy demand growth rates – strongly dependant on China.
Chinese iron ore imports continue to remain firm. In the first quarter of this year, China has imported an average of 51.68 million tons (mt) of ore. In 2009, iron ore imports reached a monthly average of 52.37mt, leaving this year’s ore imports just 1% short of 2009 levels, but still very healthy at 14.7mt (40%) more than 2008 levels. With steel prices rising above those of 2009 – Chinese iron ore imports will continue as the prime driver in the dry bulk market.
However, the present spot rates are not expected to stay that low as time charter rates stay strong as illustrated by the reported BHP Billiton booking of a Capesize vessel for 3-5 months at USD/day 37,000 - more than 30% premium to spot. The current FFA (Forward Freight Agreement) rates also point in that direction with Capesize Q2 FFA going up to USD/day 35,750 and Panamax Q2 going down to USD/day 28,500.
Supply:
The active fleet has grown by 3.5% during first quarter of 2010, caused by deliveries of 16 million DWT of newbuildings offset by just 1 million DWT being demolished. Since BIMCO Bulletin 1/2010, the total dry bulk order book has increased by 5.5 million DWT. It seems as though the optimism from surprisingly healthy freight rate levels in 2009 has made contracting go on – despite the fact that the 285 million DWT that comprises the order book today is doomed to make challenging markets in short as well as long-term.
Year-to-date deliveries in capesize amount to 47 ships comprising 8.7 million new DWT, resulting in an increased fleet size of 5% so far in 2010 and active Capesize vessel number 1,000 has just been delivered. At the beginning of 2009, 822 Capesize vessels were active, but an inflow of 112 newbuildings and 29 converted vessels was added to the existing fleet, counterbalanced by just 9 demolitions, leaving a fleet tonnage growth of 18.5% in 2009.
An additional 305 Capesize vessels are scheduled for delivery in 2010, but “only” 183 will hit the water, when applying the BIMCO assumptions for supply forecast as described next to the graphics. In total, this will in turn mean that Capesize tonnage could grow by 21% when fine-tuning for an average scrapping age of 26 years for Capesize vessels
as compared to the average of 30 years for the overall fleet.
BIMCO forecasts inflow of new dry bulk tonnage in 2010 to reach 76 million DWT, offset by demolition of as much as 13 million DWT. This could make the fleet grow by 14% in 2010 as compared to 10% in 2009. Deliveries in 2011 are forecast to be even higher before supply growth comes down in 2012.
Clarkson’s have scheduled deliveries of 120-130 million DWT in 2010. BIMCO assumes that 10% of the entire order book will not be built and one third of the rest will be deferred by one year. Furthermore, the demolition potential is calculated to 49 million DWT, equal to all vessels aged 30 or above to be demolished by the end of 2013.
Outlook:
The fortunes of the dry bulk markets are basically down to the fortunes of China. March was the 13th straight month that the official Chinese PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) has stood above the threshold of 50 that demarcates expansion from contraction, indicating that the Chinese economy is on a stable and relatively fast growth track. PMI rose to 55.1% in March, up 3.1% on last month, according to data released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing.
The housing market and huge infrastructure projects have been primary beneficiaries of the Chinese Government’s stimulus package. With the construction sector being the number one steel user, consuming around 50% of Chinese steel, it goes without saying that a continuance of the strength in this sector is vital for the health of the dry bulk freight rates.
Freight rates are forecast by MSI to drift sideways on current levels over the next 6 months. Capesize rates are forecast to stay around USD 30-35,000 per day while the smaller vessel types could see rates go down from current levels to around USD 16-24,000 per day.
Current news:
BHP Billiton has reached agreement to sell the majority of its iron ore to Asian steel mills on shorter term contracts, ending more than 40 years of annual pricing. Brazilian Vale have also inked new iron ore prices – resulting in price hikes of around 90%– indicating a continued strong demand for the vital raw material in steel production. Contract prices for coking coal are also expected higher.
Meanwhile, the China-Rio Tinto bribery case has just been settled. The court in Shanghai sentenced the four convicted Australian mining giant Rio Tinto employees to prison for a total 39 years. They were found guilty after having admitted to accepting about USD 13 million in bribes from private steel mills that wanted to avoid purchasing iron ore from more costly state-run mills. The arrangement undercut the state’s China Iron and Steel Association’s desire for a united front in negotiating with Australian suppliers. Shortly after the verdict the employees were sacked for clear violation of Chinese Law and Rio Tinto’s code of conduct. China claims its steel sector paid as much at USD 160 million too much last year for iron ore because of bribery and espionage. While the three Chinese defendants have decided to appeal terms, the Australian national Stern Hu appears to be the only one not appealing terms.
Source: Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Monday, 30 August 10
DRY BULK MARKET STABILIZES, ALBEIT AT A FALLING NOTE
The dry bulk market’s leading benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) ended the week at 2712 points, a marginal weekly loss of 1.6% or 44 points ...
Saturday, 28 August 10
THE FUTURES FOR THREE YEARS (2010-2012) WAS FIRM FOR CAPE AND PANAMAX VESSELS - VISTAAR
COALspot.com: The freight market appeared to be heading for correction with the indices coming off during later part of the week. The BDI closed 44 ...
Saturday, 28 August 10
KRISHNAPATNAM PORT SETS AN ALL INDIA COAL DISCHARGE RECORD
COALspot.com: Krishnapatnam Port has established all new record for coal discharged in India using the conventional system of coal unloading for por ...
Friday, 27 August 10
PAKISTAN WILL IMPORT 8 TO 10 PERCENT MORE COAL IN 2011
COALspot.com: Pakistan to import 4 million ton of coal in 2011 up by 8-10 percent compare to this year’s imports. "Pakistan's tota ...
Thursday, 26 August 10
CHARTERERS SWITCHING FROM PANAMAX TO CAPE STEMS DUE TO CAPE FALL
Handy
The activity picked up in the Atlantic with more enquiries seen for short period tonnage for end August/beg September - As the grain season ...
|
|
|
Showing 5641 to 5645 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
|
| |
| |
|
