We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 17 April 10
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - BIMCO
 Strong Chinese steel market is set to cushion the flood of new Capesize vessels entering the dry bulk fleet Demand: The first quarter of 2010 saw ups and down for the BDI with the index hovering around 3,000. It seems as if the market is balanced on a knife edge. High supply is likely to overmatch even very healthy demand growth rates – strongly dependant on China.
Chinese iron ore imports continue to remain firm. In the first quarter of this year, China has imported an average of 51.68 million tons (mt) of ore. In 2009, iron ore imports reached a monthly average of 52.37mt, leaving this year’s ore imports just 1% short of 2009 levels, but still very healthy at 14.7mt (40%) more than 2008 levels. With steel prices rising above those of 2009 – Chinese iron ore imports will continue as the prime driver in the dry bulk market.
However, the present spot rates are not expected to stay that low as time charter rates stay strong as illustrated by the reported BHP Billiton booking of a Capesize vessel for 3-5 months at USD/day 37,000 - more than 30% premium to spot. The current FFA (Forward Freight Agreement) rates also point in that direction with Capesize Q2 FFA going up to USD/day 35,750 and Panamax Q2 going down to USD/day 28,500.
Supply:
The active fleet has grown by 3.5% during first quarter of 2010, caused by deliveries of 16 million DWT of newbuildings offset by just 1 million DWT being demolished. Since BIMCO Bulletin 1/2010, the total dry bulk order book has increased by 5.5 million DWT. It seems as though the optimism from surprisingly healthy freight rate levels in 2009 has made contracting go on – despite the fact that the 285 million DWT that comprises the order book today is doomed to make challenging markets in short as well as long-term.
Year-to-date deliveries in capesize amount to 47 ships comprising 8.7 million new DWT, resulting in an increased fleet size of 5% so far in 2010 and active Capesize vessel number 1,000 has just been delivered. At the beginning of 2009, 822 Capesize vessels were active, but an inflow of 112 newbuildings and 29 converted vessels was added to the existing fleet, counterbalanced by just 9 demolitions, leaving a fleet tonnage growth of 18.5% in 2009.
An additional 305 Capesize vessels are scheduled for delivery in 2010, but “only” 183 will hit the water, when applying the BIMCO assumptions for supply forecast as described next to the graphics. In total, this will in turn mean that Capesize tonnage could grow by 21% when fine-tuning for an average scrapping age of 26 years for Capesize vessels
as compared to the average of 30 years for the overall fleet.
BIMCO forecasts inflow of new dry bulk tonnage in 2010 to reach 76 million DWT, offset by demolition of as much as 13 million DWT. This could make the fleet grow by 14% in 2010 as compared to 10% in 2009. Deliveries in 2011 are forecast to be even higher before supply growth comes down in 2012.
Clarkson’s have scheduled deliveries of 120-130 million DWT in 2010. BIMCO assumes that 10% of the entire order book will not be built and one third of the rest will be deferred by one year. Furthermore, the demolition potential is calculated to 49 million DWT, equal to all vessels aged 30 or above to be demolished by the end of 2013.
Outlook:
The fortunes of the dry bulk markets are basically down to the fortunes of China. March was the 13th straight month that the official Chinese PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) has stood above the threshold of 50 that demarcates expansion from contraction, indicating that the Chinese economy is on a stable and relatively fast growth track. PMI rose to 55.1% in March, up 3.1% on last month, according to data released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing.
The housing market and huge infrastructure projects have been primary beneficiaries of the Chinese Government’s stimulus package. With the construction sector being the number one steel user, consuming around 50% of Chinese steel, it goes without saying that a continuance of the strength in this sector is vital for the health of the dry bulk freight rates.
Freight rates are forecast by MSI to drift sideways on current levels over the next 6 months. Capesize rates are forecast to stay around USD 30-35,000 per day while the smaller vessel types could see rates go down from current levels to around USD 16-24,000 per day.
Current news:
BHP Billiton has reached agreement to sell the majority of its iron ore to Asian steel mills on shorter term contracts, ending more than 40 years of annual pricing. Brazilian Vale have also inked new iron ore prices – resulting in price hikes of around 90%– indicating a continued strong demand for the vital raw material in steel production. Contract prices for coking coal are also expected higher.
Meanwhile, the China-Rio Tinto bribery case has just been settled. The court in Shanghai sentenced the four convicted Australian mining giant Rio Tinto employees to prison for a total 39 years. They were found guilty after having admitted to accepting about USD 13 million in bribes from private steel mills that wanted to avoid purchasing iron ore from more costly state-run mills. The arrangement undercut the state’s China Iron and Steel Association’s desire for a united front in negotiating with Australian suppliers. Shortly after the verdict the employees were sacked for clear violation of Chinese Law and Rio Tinto’s code of conduct. China claims its steel sector paid as much at USD 160 million too much last year for iron ore because of bribery and espionage. While the three Chinese defendants have decided to appeal terms, the Australian national Stern Hu appears to be the only one not appealing terms.
Source: Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Saturday, 18 September 10
ECI / CHINA FREIGHT ROUTE DOWN BY 1.22 PCT OR US$ 225 PER DAY AND CLOSED AT US$ 18,123 PER DAY - VISTAAR
COALspot.com: The BDI was under pressure this week and was almost down by 11 pct and closed at 2676 points.
The Cape and Panamax index was almost ...
Friday, 17 September 10
CWP COAL WASHING PLANTS MACHINERY LANDS ON RUSSIAN MARKET!!
Press Release: CWP Coal Washing Plants Machinery Industry & Trade Co. which was founded in 1990, has been operating in Izmir with its closed pro ...
Friday, 17 September 10
FREIGHT RATES TO DECLINE FURTHER - ICICI SEC
Broking firm ICICI Securities said tanker freight rates reported a sharp drop with rates of Suezmax and Aframax carriers declining by 16% to USD 8,6 ...
Friday, 17 September 10
R-POWER, ADANI, GMR TO BID FOR $1-BN MINE
Reliance Power, Adani Power and GMR are in the race for a coal mine asset in Australia. The valuation of the asset is close to $1 billion (Rs 4,600 ...
Thursday, 16 September 10
RPG GROUP BUYS 10% IN AUSSIE COAL FIRM RESOURCE GENERATION
Dealcurry reported that, India's RPG Group's Integrated Coal Mining Limited (ICML) has acquired 10% stake (18,268,053 shares) in Resource Generati ...
|
|
|
Showing 5606 to 5610 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
|
| |
| |
|
