We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 17 April 10
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - BIMCO
 Strong Chinese steel market is set to cushion the flood of new Capesize vessels entering the dry bulk fleet Demand: The first quarter of 2010 saw ups and down for the BDI with the index hovering around 3,000. It seems as if the market is balanced on a knife edge. High supply is likely to overmatch even very healthy demand growth rates – strongly dependant on China.
Chinese iron ore imports continue to remain firm. In the first quarter of this year, China has imported an average of 51.68 million tons (mt) of ore. In 2009, iron ore imports reached a monthly average of 52.37mt, leaving this year’s ore imports just 1% short of 2009 levels, but still very healthy at 14.7mt (40%) more than 2008 levels. With steel prices rising above those of 2009 – Chinese iron ore imports will continue as the prime driver in the dry bulk market.
However, the present spot rates are not expected to stay that low as time charter rates stay strong as illustrated by the reported BHP Billiton booking of a Capesize vessel for 3-5 months at USD/day 37,000 - more than 30% premium to spot. The current FFA (Forward Freight Agreement) rates also point in that direction with Capesize Q2 FFA going up to USD/day 35,750 and Panamax Q2 going down to USD/day 28,500.
Supply:
The active fleet has grown by 3.5% during first quarter of 2010, caused by deliveries of 16 million DWT of newbuildings offset by just 1 million DWT being demolished. Since BIMCO Bulletin 1/2010, the total dry bulk order book has increased by 5.5 million DWT. It seems as though the optimism from surprisingly healthy freight rate levels in 2009 has made contracting go on – despite the fact that the 285 million DWT that comprises the order book today is doomed to make challenging markets in short as well as long-term.
Year-to-date deliveries in capesize amount to 47 ships comprising 8.7 million new DWT, resulting in an increased fleet size of 5% so far in 2010 and active Capesize vessel number 1,000 has just been delivered. At the beginning of 2009, 822 Capesize vessels were active, but an inflow of 112 newbuildings and 29 converted vessels was added to the existing fleet, counterbalanced by just 9 demolitions, leaving a fleet tonnage growth of 18.5% in 2009.
An additional 305 Capesize vessels are scheduled for delivery in 2010, but “only” 183 will hit the water, when applying the BIMCO assumptions for supply forecast as described next to the graphics. In total, this will in turn mean that Capesize tonnage could grow by 21% when fine-tuning for an average scrapping age of 26 years for Capesize vessels
as compared to the average of 30 years for the overall fleet.
BIMCO forecasts inflow of new dry bulk tonnage in 2010 to reach 76 million DWT, offset by demolition of as much as 13 million DWT. This could make the fleet grow by 14% in 2010 as compared to 10% in 2009. Deliveries in 2011 are forecast to be even higher before supply growth comes down in 2012.
Clarkson’s have scheduled deliveries of 120-130 million DWT in 2010. BIMCO assumes that 10% of the entire order book will not be built and one third of the rest will be deferred by one year. Furthermore, the demolition potential is calculated to 49 million DWT, equal to all vessels aged 30 or above to be demolished by the end of 2013.
Outlook:
The fortunes of the dry bulk markets are basically down to the fortunes of China. March was the 13th straight month that the official Chinese PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) has stood above the threshold of 50 that demarcates expansion from contraction, indicating that the Chinese economy is on a stable and relatively fast growth track. PMI rose to 55.1% in March, up 3.1% on last month, according to data released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing.
The housing market and huge infrastructure projects have been primary beneficiaries of the Chinese Government’s stimulus package. With the construction sector being the number one steel user, consuming around 50% of Chinese steel, it goes without saying that a continuance of the strength in this sector is vital for the health of the dry bulk freight rates.
Freight rates are forecast by MSI to drift sideways on current levels over the next 6 months. Capesize rates are forecast to stay around USD 30-35,000 per day while the smaller vessel types could see rates go down from current levels to around USD 16-24,000 per day.
Current news:
BHP Billiton has reached agreement to sell the majority of its iron ore to Asian steel mills on shorter term contracts, ending more than 40 years of annual pricing. Brazilian Vale have also inked new iron ore prices – resulting in price hikes of around 90%– indicating a continued strong demand for the vital raw material in steel production. Contract prices for coking coal are also expected higher.
Meanwhile, the China-Rio Tinto bribery case has just been settled. The court in Shanghai sentenced the four convicted Australian mining giant Rio Tinto employees to prison for a total 39 years. They were found guilty after having admitted to accepting about USD 13 million in bribes from private steel mills that wanted to avoid purchasing iron ore from more costly state-run mills. The arrangement undercut the state’s China Iron and Steel Association’s desire for a united front in negotiating with Australian suppliers. Shortly after the verdict the employees were sacked for clear violation of Chinese Law and Rio Tinto’s code of conduct. China claims its steel sector paid as much at USD 160 million too much last year for iron ore because of bribery and espionage. While the three Chinese defendants have decided to appeal terms, the Australian national Stern Hu appears to be the only one not appealing terms.
Source: Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Thursday, 30 September 10
INDONESIAN COAL FOR POWER PLANT - LANKA GAZETTE
Lanka Gazette reported that, A cargo vessel with coal on board to generate electricity for the Norochcholai Coal Power Plant will arrive in Sri Lank ...
Thursday, 30 September 10
DRY BULK MARKET HEADS SOUTH ONCE MORE WITH MARKET SENTIMENT TAKING A CAUTIOUS APPROACH - HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market didn’t manage to maintain the slightly upward momentum it had established during the first two session of the week, with t ...
Wednesday, 29 September 10
MOZAMBIQUE: COAL IN THREE MORE TETE DISTRICTS
All africa reported that, Coal deposits have been confirmed in the districts of Changara, Cahora Bassa and Magoe, in the western Mozambican province ...
Tuesday, 28 September 10
MMTC TO AWARD CONTRACT TO CEPL AND KNOWLEDGE TO SUPPLY 0.835 MILLION TONS OF IMPORTED COAL
COALspot.com: MMTC, India’s state owned trading company has opened three coal purchase tenders today.
According to our market sources, Coas ...
Monday, 27 September 10
DRY BULK: FREIGHT RATES CONTINUE TO FALL ON LOW ACTIVITY - HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market didn’t manage to change its fortunes during the past week, with holidays across many Asian countries, predominantly China, ...
|
|
|
Showing 5591 to 5595 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
|
| |
| |
|
