We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 17 April 10
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - BIMCO
 Strong Chinese steel market is set to cushion the flood of new Capesize vessels entering the dry bulk fleet Demand: The first quarter of 2010 saw ups and down for the BDI with the index hovering around 3,000. It seems as if the market is balanced on a knife edge. High supply is likely to overmatch even very healthy demand growth rates – strongly dependant on China.
Chinese iron ore imports continue to remain firm. In the first quarter of this year, China has imported an average of 51.68 million tons (mt) of ore. In 2009, iron ore imports reached a monthly average of 52.37mt, leaving this year’s ore imports just 1% short of 2009 levels, but still very healthy at 14.7mt (40%) more than 2008 levels. With steel prices rising above those of 2009 – Chinese iron ore imports will continue as the prime driver in the dry bulk market.
However, the present spot rates are not expected to stay that low as time charter rates stay strong as illustrated by the reported BHP Billiton booking of a Capesize vessel for 3-5 months at USD/day 37,000 - more than 30% premium to spot. The current FFA (Forward Freight Agreement) rates also point in that direction with Capesize Q2 FFA going up to USD/day 35,750 and Panamax Q2 going down to USD/day 28,500.
Supply:
The active fleet has grown by 3.5% during first quarter of 2010, caused by deliveries of 16 million DWT of newbuildings offset by just 1 million DWT being demolished. Since BIMCO Bulletin 1/2010, the total dry bulk order book has increased by 5.5 million DWT. It seems as though the optimism from surprisingly healthy freight rate levels in 2009 has made contracting go on – despite the fact that the 285 million DWT that comprises the order book today is doomed to make challenging markets in short as well as long-term.
Year-to-date deliveries in capesize amount to 47 ships comprising 8.7 million new DWT, resulting in an increased fleet size of 5% so far in 2010 and active Capesize vessel number 1,000 has just been delivered. At the beginning of 2009, 822 Capesize vessels were active, but an inflow of 112 newbuildings and 29 converted vessels was added to the existing fleet, counterbalanced by just 9 demolitions, leaving a fleet tonnage growth of 18.5% in 2009.
An additional 305 Capesize vessels are scheduled for delivery in 2010, but “only” 183 will hit the water, when applying the BIMCO assumptions for supply forecast as described next to the graphics. In total, this will in turn mean that Capesize tonnage could grow by 21% when fine-tuning for an average scrapping age of 26 years for Capesize vessels
as compared to the average of 30 years for the overall fleet.
BIMCO forecasts inflow of new dry bulk tonnage in 2010 to reach 76 million DWT, offset by demolition of as much as 13 million DWT. This could make the fleet grow by 14% in 2010 as compared to 10% in 2009. Deliveries in 2011 are forecast to be even higher before supply growth comes down in 2012.
Clarkson’s have scheduled deliveries of 120-130 million DWT in 2010. BIMCO assumes that 10% of the entire order book will not be built and one third of the rest will be deferred by one year. Furthermore, the demolition potential is calculated to 49 million DWT, equal to all vessels aged 30 or above to be demolished by the end of 2013.
Outlook:
The fortunes of the dry bulk markets are basically down to the fortunes of China. March was the 13th straight month that the official Chinese PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) has stood above the threshold of 50 that demarcates expansion from contraction, indicating that the Chinese economy is on a stable and relatively fast growth track. PMI rose to 55.1% in March, up 3.1% on last month, according to data released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing.
The housing market and huge infrastructure projects have been primary beneficiaries of the Chinese Government’s stimulus package. With the construction sector being the number one steel user, consuming around 50% of Chinese steel, it goes without saying that a continuance of the strength in this sector is vital for the health of the dry bulk freight rates.
Freight rates are forecast by MSI to drift sideways on current levels over the next 6 months. Capesize rates are forecast to stay around USD 30-35,000 per day while the smaller vessel types could see rates go down from current levels to around USD 16-24,000 per day.
Current news:
BHP Billiton has reached agreement to sell the majority of its iron ore to Asian steel mills on shorter term contracts, ending more than 40 years of annual pricing. Brazilian Vale have also inked new iron ore prices – resulting in price hikes of around 90%– indicating a continued strong demand for the vital raw material in steel production. Contract prices for coking coal are also expected higher.
Meanwhile, the China-Rio Tinto bribery case has just been settled. The court in Shanghai sentenced the four convicted Australian mining giant Rio Tinto employees to prison for a total 39 years. They were found guilty after having admitted to accepting about USD 13 million in bribes from private steel mills that wanted to avoid purchasing iron ore from more costly state-run mills. The arrangement undercut the state’s China Iron and Steel Association’s desire for a united front in negotiating with Australian suppliers. Shortly after the verdict the employees were sacked for clear violation of Chinese Law and Rio Tinto’s code of conduct. China claims its steel sector paid as much at USD 160 million too much last year for iron ore because of bribery and espionage. While the three Chinese defendants have decided to appeal terms, the Australian national Stern Hu appears to be the only one not appealing terms.
Source: Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Saturday, 09 October 10
9TH ASIA PACIFIC MINING CONFERENCE & EXHIBITION 13 14 OCTOBER 2010 AT SHANGRI-LA HOTEL, JAKARTA.
COALspot.com: (Press Release) In October 2010, the Indonesian Mining Association (IMA) and the Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) will host t ...
Saturday, 09 October 10
SAIL SEEKS LONG-TERM COKING COAL SUPPLY FROM GLOBAL COMPANIES - BUSINESS STANDARD
State-owned Steel Authority of India (SAIL) Friday invited bids from global companies for long-term supply of coking coal to feed its expanding stee ...
Friday, 08 October 10
INVESTORS STILL RELUCTANT TO ENTER DOWNSTREAM INDUSTRIES - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, mining companies are showing a low level of enthusiasm to enter the downstream industries, as required by the 2009 M ...
Friday, 08 October 10
VESSEL OWNERS ARE RELUCTANT FOR INDONESIA TO INDIA COAL TRIPS - FEARNBULK
Handy
Last week ended with a flourish of activity as the Chinese tried to fix any prompt vessels before the Golden week festivities, and since the ...
Thursday, 07 October 10
MIRACH ENERGY GAINS RIGHTS TO EAST KALIMANTAN COAL MINE - THE EDGE SINGAPORE
The Edge Singapore reported that, Mirach Energy says it has gained the rights to produce and sell coal in an open-pit coal mine in Samarinda, the ca ...
|
|
|
Showing 5576 to 5580 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
|
| |
| |
|
