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Saturday, 17 April 10
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - BIMCO
 Strong Chinese steel market is set to cushion the flood of new Capesize vessels entering the dry bulk fleet Demand: The first quarter of 2010 saw ups and down for the BDI with the index hovering around 3,000. It seems as if the market is balanced on a knife edge. High supply is likely to overmatch even very healthy demand growth rates – strongly dependant on China.
Chinese iron ore imports continue to remain firm. In the first quarter of this year, China has imported an average of 51.68 million tons (mt) of ore. In 2009, iron ore imports reached a monthly average of 52.37mt, leaving this year’s ore imports just 1% short of 2009 levels, but still very healthy at 14.7mt (40%) more than 2008 levels. With steel prices rising above those of 2009 – Chinese iron ore imports will continue as the prime driver in the dry bulk market.
However, the present spot rates are not expected to stay that low as time charter rates stay strong as illustrated by the reported BHP Billiton booking of a Capesize vessel for 3-5 months at USD/day 37,000 - more than 30% premium to spot. The current FFA (Forward Freight Agreement) rates also point in that direction with Capesize Q2 FFA going up to USD/day 35,750 and Panamax Q2 going down to USD/day 28,500.
Supply:
The active fleet has grown by 3.5% during first quarter of 2010, caused by deliveries of 16 million DWT of newbuildings offset by just 1 million DWT being demolished. Since BIMCO Bulletin 1/2010, the total dry bulk order book has increased by 5.5 million DWT. It seems as though the optimism from surprisingly healthy freight rate levels in 2009 has made contracting go on – despite the fact that the 285 million DWT that comprises the order book today is doomed to make challenging markets in short as well as long-term.
Year-to-date deliveries in capesize amount to 47 ships comprising 8.7 million new DWT, resulting in an increased fleet size of 5% so far in 2010 and active Capesize vessel number 1,000 has just been delivered. At the beginning of 2009, 822 Capesize vessels were active, but an inflow of 112 newbuildings and 29 converted vessels was added to the existing fleet, counterbalanced by just 9 demolitions, leaving a fleet tonnage growth of 18.5% in 2009.
An additional 305 Capesize vessels are scheduled for delivery in 2010, but “only” 183 will hit the water, when applying the BIMCO assumptions for supply forecast as described next to the graphics. In total, this will in turn mean that Capesize tonnage could grow by 21% when fine-tuning for an average scrapping age of 26 years for Capesize vessels
as compared to the average of 30 years for the overall fleet.
BIMCO forecasts inflow of new dry bulk tonnage in 2010 to reach 76 million DWT, offset by demolition of as much as 13 million DWT. This could make the fleet grow by 14% in 2010 as compared to 10% in 2009. Deliveries in 2011 are forecast to be even higher before supply growth comes down in 2012.
Clarkson’s have scheduled deliveries of 120-130 million DWT in 2010. BIMCO assumes that 10% of the entire order book will not be built and one third of the rest will be deferred by one year. Furthermore, the demolition potential is calculated to 49 million DWT, equal to all vessels aged 30 or above to be demolished by the end of 2013.
Outlook:
The fortunes of the dry bulk markets are basically down to the fortunes of China. March was the 13th straight month that the official Chinese PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) has stood above the threshold of 50 that demarcates expansion from contraction, indicating that the Chinese economy is on a stable and relatively fast growth track. PMI rose to 55.1% in March, up 3.1% on last month, according to data released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing.
The housing market and huge infrastructure projects have been primary beneficiaries of the Chinese Government’s stimulus package. With the construction sector being the number one steel user, consuming around 50% of Chinese steel, it goes without saying that a continuance of the strength in this sector is vital for the health of the dry bulk freight rates.
Freight rates are forecast by MSI to drift sideways on current levels over the next 6 months. Capesize rates are forecast to stay around USD 30-35,000 per day while the smaller vessel types could see rates go down from current levels to around USD 16-24,000 per day.
Current news:
BHP Billiton has reached agreement to sell the majority of its iron ore to Asian steel mills on shorter term contracts, ending more than 40 years of annual pricing. Brazilian Vale have also inked new iron ore prices – resulting in price hikes of around 90%– indicating a continued strong demand for the vital raw material in steel production. Contract prices for coking coal are also expected higher.
Meanwhile, the China-Rio Tinto bribery case has just been settled. The court in Shanghai sentenced the four convicted Australian mining giant Rio Tinto employees to prison for a total 39 years. They were found guilty after having admitted to accepting about USD 13 million in bribes from private steel mills that wanted to avoid purchasing iron ore from more costly state-run mills. The arrangement undercut the state’s China Iron and Steel Association’s desire for a united front in negotiating with Australian suppliers. Shortly after the verdict the employees were sacked for clear violation of Chinese Law and Rio Tinto’s code of conduct. China claims its steel sector paid as much at USD 160 million too much last year for iron ore because of bribery and espionage. While the three Chinese defendants have decided to appeal terms, the Australian national Stern Hu appears to be the only one not appealing terms.
Source: Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 20 October 10
CANADIAN CHALLENGER ACQUIRES INDONESIAN COAL PROJECT
COALspot.com (Press Release): According to Challenger Deep Resources Corp's website and press release posted on the site, Challenger Deep Res ...
Wednesday, 20 October 10
ADANI THE LARGEST COAL IMPORTER OF INDIA IS NEGOTIATING WITH COAL INDIA LIMITED FOR A SUPPLY AGREEMENT - TOP NEWS
Top News reported that, negotitations are very much on between Adani Enterprises, the biggest coal importer of the country and Coal India Limited, t ...
Wednesday, 20 October 10
UAE FIRM IN INDONESIA RAIL DEAL - GULF NEWS
Gulf News reported that, construction of a 140-kilometre railway in Indonesia, initiated by RAK Minerals and Metals Investments (RMMI) will start ne ...
Wednesday, 20 October 10
CAPESIZES FINDING SUPPORT IN IRON ORE DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Although the beginning of the week wasn’t the rosiest one for the dry bulk market, last week proved a cheerful one for dry bulk ship owners, e ...
Saturday, 16 October 10
BDI WAS MARGINALLY UP BY 2.45 PCT LAST WEEK - VISTAAR SHIPPING
COALspot.com: The BDI seemed to lose the moment compared to last week and was marginally by 2.45 pct and closed at 2,762 points.
Also the Cape in ...
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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