We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 17 April 10
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - BIMCO
 Strong Chinese steel market is set to cushion the flood of new Capesize vessels entering the dry bulk fleet Demand: The first quarter of 2010 saw ups and down for the BDI with the index hovering around 3,000. It seems as if the market is balanced on a knife edge. High supply is likely to overmatch even very healthy demand growth rates – strongly dependant on China.
Chinese iron ore imports continue to remain firm. In the first quarter of this year, China has imported an average of 51.68 million tons (mt) of ore. In 2009, iron ore imports reached a monthly average of 52.37mt, leaving this year’s ore imports just 1% short of 2009 levels, but still very healthy at 14.7mt (40%) more than 2008 levels. With steel prices rising above those of 2009 – Chinese iron ore imports will continue as the prime driver in the dry bulk market.
However, the present spot rates are not expected to stay that low as time charter rates stay strong as illustrated by the reported BHP Billiton booking of a Capesize vessel for 3-5 months at USD/day 37,000 - more than 30% premium to spot. The current FFA (Forward Freight Agreement) rates also point in that direction with Capesize Q2 FFA going up to USD/day 35,750 and Panamax Q2 going down to USD/day 28,500.
Supply:
The active fleet has grown by 3.5% during first quarter of 2010, caused by deliveries of 16 million DWT of newbuildings offset by just 1 million DWT being demolished. Since BIMCO Bulletin 1/2010, the total dry bulk order book has increased by 5.5 million DWT. It seems as though the optimism from surprisingly healthy freight rate levels in 2009 has made contracting go on – despite the fact that the 285 million DWT that comprises the order book today is doomed to make challenging markets in short as well as long-term.
Year-to-date deliveries in capesize amount to 47 ships comprising 8.7 million new DWT, resulting in an increased fleet size of 5% so far in 2010 and active Capesize vessel number 1,000 has just been delivered. At the beginning of 2009, 822 Capesize vessels were active, but an inflow of 112 newbuildings and 29 converted vessels was added to the existing fleet, counterbalanced by just 9 demolitions, leaving a fleet tonnage growth of 18.5% in 2009.
An additional 305 Capesize vessels are scheduled for delivery in 2010, but “only” 183 will hit the water, when applying the BIMCO assumptions for supply forecast as described next to the graphics. In total, this will in turn mean that Capesize tonnage could grow by 21% when fine-tuning for an average scrapping age of 26 years for Capesize vessels
as compared to the average of 30 years for the overall fleet.
BIMCO forecasts inflow of new dry bulk tonnage in 2010 to reach 76 million DWT, offset by demolition of as much as 13 million DWT. This could make the fleet grow by 14% in 2010 as compared to 10% in 2009. Deliveries in 2011 are forecast to be even higher before supply growth comes down in 2012.
Clarkson’s have scheduled deliveries of 120-130 million DWT in 2010. BIMCO assumes that 10% of the entire order book will not be built and one third of the rest will be deferred by one year. Furthermore, the demolition potential is calculated to 49 million DWT, equal to all vessels aged 30 or above to be demolished by the end of 2013.
Outlook:
The fortunes of the dry bulk markets are basically down to the fortunes of China. March was the 13th straight month that the official Chinese PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) has stood above the threshold of 50 that demarcates expansion from contraction, indicating that the Chinese economy is on a stable and relatively fast growth track. PMI rose to 55.1% in March, up 3.1% on last month, according to data released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing.
The housing market and huge infrastructure projects have been primary beneficiaries of the Chinese Government’s stimulus package. With the construction sector being the number one steel user, consuming around 50% of Chinese steel, it goes without saying that a continuance of the strength in this sector is vital for the health of the dry bulk freight rates.
Freight rates are forecast by MSI to drift sideways on current levels over the next 6 months. Capesize rates are forecast to stay around USD 30-35,000 per day while the smaller vessel types could see rates go down from current levels to around USD 16-24,000 per day.
Current news:
BHP Billiton has reached agreement to sell the majority of its iron ore to Asian steel mills on shorter term contracts, ending more than 40 years of annual pricing. Brazilian Vale have also inked new iron ore prices – resulting in price hikes of around 90%– indicating a continued strong demand for the vital raw material in steel production. Contract prices for coking coal are also expected higher.
Meanwhile, the China-Rio Tinto bribery case has just been settled. The court in Shanghai sentenced the four convicted Australian mining giant Rio Tinto employees to prison for a total 39 years. They were found guilty after having admitted to accepting about USD 13 million in bribes from private steel mills that wanted to avoid purchasing iron ore from more costly state-run mills. The arrangement undercut the state’s China Iron and Steel Association’s desire for a united front in negotiating with Australian suppliers. Shortly after the verdict the employees were sacked for clear violation of Chinese Law and Rio Tinto’s code of conduct. China claims its steel sector paid as much at USD 160 million too much last year for iron ore because of bribery and espionage. While the three Chinese defendants have decided to appeal terms, the Australian national Stern Hu appears to be the only one not appealing terms.
Source: Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Friday, 03 December 10
INDONESIAN LOW RANK COAL IS ATTRACTING COAL BUYERS FROM INDIA AND CHINA
COALspot.com - Bhakti Energi Persada has sold out its whole coal production until the end of 2011, Jeffry Mulyono said during McCloskey Asia P ...
Thursday, 02 December 10
INDIA'S COAL SHORTAGE TO DEEPEN NEXT YEAR - MONEY CONTROL
Money Control reported that, India's coal deficit will deepen sharply next year, its coal minister said on Tuesday, forcing Asia's third largest e ...
Thursday, 02 December 10
CIL INCHES CLOSER TO PEABODY STAKE DEAL - THE TELEGRAPH INDIA
The Telegraph India reported that, state-run Coal India Ltd (CIL) hopes to complete negotiations to buy over 10 per cent in Australian miner Peabody ...
Thursday, 02 December 10
DRY BULK MARKET WEIGHED DOWN BY CAPESIZE BLUES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The negative sentiment currently undergoing in the capesize market has kept the dry bulk market’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) on the ...
Monday, 29 November 10
NUCLEAR SUPERTANKERS TO SHAKE UP SHIPPING - THIS IS MONEY
This is money reported that, plans are under way that could see nuclear-powered supertankers sailing the world’s shipping lanes, refuelling on ...
|
|
|
Showing 5506 to 5510 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
