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Saturday, 17 April 10
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - BIMCO
 Strong Chinese steel market is set to cushion the flood of new Capesize vessels entering the dry bulk fleet Demand: The first quarter of 2010 saw ups and down for the BDI with the index hovering around 3,000. It seems as if the market is balanced on a knife edge. High supply is likely to overmatch even very healthy demand growth rates – strongly dependant on China.
Chinese iron ore imports continue to remain firm. In the first quarter of this year, China has imported an average of 51.68 million tons (mt) of ore. In 2009, iron ore imports reached a monthly average of 52.37mt, leaving this year’s ore imports just 1% short of 2009 levels, but still very healthy at 14.7mt (40%) more than 2008 levels. With steel prices rising above those of 2009 – Chinese iron ore imports will continue as the prime driver in the dry bulk market.
However, the present spot rates are not expected to stay that low as time charter rates stay strong as illustrated by the reported BHP Billiton booking of a Capesize vessel for 3-5 months at USD/day 37,000 - more than 30% premium to spot. The current FFA (Forward Freight Agreement) rates also point in that direction with Capesize Q2 FFA going up to USD/day 35,750 and Panamax Q2 going down to USD/day 28,500.
Supply:
The active fleet has grown by 3.5% during first quarter of 2010, caused by deliveries of 16 million DWT of newbuildings offset by just 1 million DWT being demolished. Since BIMCO Bulletin 1/2010, the total dry bulk order book has increased by 5.5 million DWT. It seems as though the optimism from surprisingly healthy freight rate levels in 2009 has made contracting go on – despite the fact that the 285 million DWT that comprises the order book today is doomed to make challenging markets in short as well as long-term.
Year-to-date deliveries in capesize amount to 47 ships comprising 8.7 million new DWT, resulting in an increased fleet size of 5% so far in 2010 and active Capesize vessel number 1,000 has just been delivered. At the beginning of 2009, 822 Capesize vessels were active, but an inflow of 112 newbuildings and 29 converted vessels was added to the existing fleet, counterbalanced by just 9 demolitions, leaving a fleet tonnage growth of 18.5% in 2009.
An additional 305 Capesize vessels are scheduled for delivery in 2010, but “only” 183 will hit the water, when applying the BIMCO assumptions for supply forecast as described next to the graphics. In total, this will in turn mean that Capesize tonnage could grow by 21% when fine-tuning for an average scrapping age of 26 years for Capesize vessels
as compared to the average of 30 years for the overall fleet.
BIMCO forecasts inflow of new dry bulk tonnage in 2010 to reach 76 million DWT, offset by demolition of as much as 13 million DWT. This could make the fleet grow by 14% in 2010 as compared to 10% in 2009. Deliveries in 2011 are forecast to be even higher before supply growth comes down in 2012.
Clarkson’s have scheduled deliveries of 120-130 million DWT in 2010. BIMCO assumes that 10% of the entire order book will not be built and one third of the rest will be deferred by one year. Furthermore, the demolition potential is calculated to 49 million DWT, equal to all vessels aged 30 or above to be demolished by the end of 2013.
Outlook:
The fortunes of the dry bulk markets are basically down to the fortunes of China. March was the 13th straight month that the official Chinese PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) has stood above the threshold of 50 that demarcates expansion from contraction, indicating that the Chinese economy is on a stable and relatively fast growth track. PMI rose to 55.1% in March, up 3.1% on last month, according to data released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing.
The housing market and huge infrastructure projects have been primary beneficiaries of the Chinese Government’s stimulus package. With the construction sector being the number one steel user, consuming around 50% of Chinese steel, it goes without saying that a continuance of the strength in this sector is vital for the health of the dry bulk freight rates.
Freight rates are forecast by MSI to drift sideways on current levels over the next 6 months. Capesize rates are forecast to stay around USD 30-35,000 per day while the smaller vessel types could see rates go down from current levels to around USD 16-24,000 per day.
Current news:
BHP Billiton has reached agreement to sell the majority of its iron ore to Asian steel mills on shorter term contracts, ending more than 40 years of annual pricing. Brazilian Vale have also inked new iron ore prices – resulting in price hikes of around 90%– indicating a continued strong demand for the vital raw material in steel production. Contract prices for coking coal are also expected higher.
Meanwhile, the China-Rio Tinto bribery case has just been settled. The court in Shanghai sentenced the four convicted Australian mining giant Rio Tinto employees to prison for a total 39 years. They were found guilty after having admitted to accepting about USD 13 million in bribes from private steel mills that wanted to avoid purchasing iron ore from more costly state-run mills. The arrangement undercut the state’s China Iron and Steel Association’s desire for a united front in negotiating with Australian suppliers. Shortly after the verdict the employees were sacked for clear violation of Chinese Law and Rio Tinto’s code of conduct. China claims its steel sector paid as much at USD 160 million too much last year for iron ore because of bribery and espionage. While the three Chinese defendants have decided to appeal terms, the Australian national Stern Hu appears to be the only one not appealing terms.
Source: Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 24 December 10
DRY BULK OWNERS COULD SOON RECONSIDER SCRAPPING OLDER VESSELS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With the dry bulk market close to its lowest levels in months and indeed close to 2010 lows, ship owners could be heading towards scrapyards in a bi ...
Thursday, 23 December 10
SOUTHGOBI RESOURCES CLOSES STRATEGIC INVESTMENT IN ASPIRE MINING LIMITED
Press Release – SouthGobi Resources Ltd. (TSX: SGQ, HK: 1878), announced today that it has completed the private placement with Aspire Mining ...
Thursday, 23 December 10
CESC EYES COAL MINES IN INDONESIA, S AFRICA - TEHELKA
Company has already set a target of adding 6,000 MW power generation by the end of the 12th Plan in 2017
Tehelka reported that, CESC Ltd, the fla ...
Thursday, 23 December 10
SANTA CLAUSE DID NOT COME EARLY THIS YEAR - FEARNBULK
Handy
Not much fresh enquiry this week and quite dead in Bl.Sea/Med. Nevertheless ...
Thursday, 23 December 10
STERLITE ENERGY LIMITED TO BUY 0.6 MLN MT OF COAL FOR 2011
COALspot.com - Sterlite Energy Limited (SEL) is a part of Vedanta Resources plc , a London listed FTSE 100 diversified metals and mining major with ...
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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