We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 17 April 10
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - BIMCO
 Strong Chinese steel market is set to cushion the flood of new Capesize vessels entering the dry bulk fleet Demand: The first quarter of 2010 saw ups and down for the BDI with the index hovering around 3,000. It seems as if the market is balanced on a knife edge. High supply is likely to overmatch even very healthy demand growth rates – strongly dependant on China.
Chinese iron ore imports continue to remain firm. In the first quarter of this year, China has imported an average of 51.68 million tons (mt) of ore. In 2009, iron ore imports reached a monthly average of 52.37mt, leaving this year’s ore imports just 1% short of 2009 levels, but still very healthy at 14.7mt (40%) more than 2008 levels. With steel prices rising above those of 2009 – Chinese iron ore imports will continue as the prime driver in the dry bulk market.
However, the present spot rates are not expected to stay that low as time charter rates stay strong as illustrated by the reported BHP Billiton booking of a Capesize vessel for 3-5 months at USD/day 37,000 - more than 30% premium to spot. The current FFA (Forward Freight Agreement) rates also point in that direction with Capesize Q2 FFA going up to USD/day 35,750 and Panamax Q2 going down to USD/day 28,500.
Supply:
The active fleet has grown by 3.5% during first quarter of 2010, caused by deliveries of 16 million DWT of newbuildings offset by just 1 million DWT being demolished. Since BIMCO Bulletin 1/2010, the total dry bulk order book has increased by 5.5 million DWT. It seems as though the optimism from surprisingly healthy freight rate levels in 2009 has made contracting go on – despite the fact that the 285 million DWT that comprises the order book today is doomed to make challenging markets in short as well as long-term.
Year-to-date deliveries in capesize amount to 47 ships comprising 8.7 million new DWT, resulting in an increased fleet size of 5% so far in 2010 and active Capesize vessel number 1,000 has just been delivered. At the beginning of 2009, 822 Capesize vessels were active, but an inflow of 112 newbuildings and 29 converted vessels was added to the existing fleet, counterbalanced by just 9 demolitions, leaving a fleet tonnage growth of 18.5% in 2009.
An additional 305 Capesize vessels are scheduled for delivery in 2010, but “only” 183 will hit the water, when applying the BIMCO assumptions for supply forecast as described next to the graphics. In total, this will in turn mean that Capesize tonnage could grow by 21% when fine-tuning for an average scrapping age of 26 years for Capesize vessels
as compared to the average of 30 years for the overall fleet.
BIMCO forecasts inflow of new dry bulk tonnage in 2010 to reach 76 million DWT, offset by demolition of as much as 13 million DWT. This could make the fleet grow by 14% in 2010 as compared to 10% in 2009. Deliveries in 2011 are forecast to be even higher before supply growth comes down in 2012.
Clarkson’s have scheduled deliveries of 120-130 million DWT in 2010. BIMCO assumes that 10% of the entire order book will not be built and one third of the rest will be deferred by one year. Furthermore, the demolition potential is calculated to 49 million DWT, equal to all vessels aged 30 or above to be demolished by the end of 2013.
Outlook:
The fortunes of the dry bulk markets are basically down to the fortunes of China. March was the 13th straight month that the official Chinese PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) has stood above the threshold of 50 that demarcates expansion from contraction, indicating that the Chinese economy is on a stable and relatively fast growth track. PMI rose to 55.1% in March, up 3.1% on last month, according to data released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing.
The housing market and huge infrastructure projects have been primary beneficiaries of the Chinese Government’s stimulus package. With the construction sector being the number one steel user, consuming around 50% of Chinese steel, it goes without saying that a continuance of the strength in this sector is vital for the health of the dry bulk freight rates.
Freight rates are forecast by MSI to drift sideways on current levels over the next 6 months. Capesize rates are forecast to stay around USD 30-35,000 per day while the smaller vessel types could see rates go down from current levels to around USD 16-24,000 per day.
Current news:
BHP Billiton has reached agreement to sell the majority of its iron ore to Asian steel mills on shorter term contracts, ending more than 40 years of annual pricing. Brazilian Vale have also inked new iron ore prices – resulting in price hikes of around 90%– indicating a continued strong demand for the vital raw material in steel production. Contract prices for coking coal are also expected higher.
Meanwhile, the China-Rio Tinto bribery case has just been settled. The court in Shanghai sentenced the four convicted Australian mining giant Rio Tinto employees to prison for a total 39 years. They were found guilty after having admitted to accepting about USD 13 million in bribes from private steel mills that wanted to avoid purchasing iron ore from more costly state-run mills. The arrangement undercut the state’s China Iron and Steel Association’s desire for a united front in negotiating with Australian suppliers. Shortly after the verdict the employees were sacked for clear violation of Chinese Law and Rio Tinto’s code of conduct. China claims its steel sector paid as much at USD 160 million too much last year for iron ore because of bribery and espionage. While the three Chinese defendants have decided to appeal terms, the Australian national Stern Hu appears to be the only one not appealing terms.
Source: Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 09 March 11
INDONESIA HAS SET THE MARCH 2011 INDONESIAN COAL REFERENCE PRICE FOR THERMAL COAL AT US$ 122.43 PER TON
COALspot.com - Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has set the March 2011 Indonesian Coal Reference Price for thermal c ...
Tuesday, 08 March 11
US$ 8 BILLION WORTH OF INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS IN PIPELINE IN INDONESIA - WOOD MACKENZIE
India’s Increasing Demand for Thermal Coal Cannot Be Satisfied Without Emerging Coal Areas in Indonesia - Wood Mackenzie
At Coa ...
Tuesday, 08 March 11
INDIA'S VEDANTA TO ACQUIRE COAL MINES IN OVERSEAS
COALspot.com - India's Vedanta group is also looking at long-term off take agreements and possible acquire of coal mines overseas, the official sai ...
Tuesday, 08 March 11
MINERS SAY VALUE-ADDED LAW WILL HURT IN THE LONG RUN - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe reported that, Government plans to require miners to give added value to their exported commodities could end up costing the count ...
Tuesday, 08 March 11
THE PANAMAX MARKET THIS WEEK FIRMED UP - BRS
Underlining the unpredictability of the current market, rates for all dry bulk segments swung up again last week. Stronger exports out of South Amer ...
|
|
|
Showing 5351 to 5355 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
|
| |
| |
|
