We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 17 April 10
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - BIMCO
 Strong Chinese steel market is set to cushion the flood of new Capesize vessels entering the dry bulk fleet Demand: The first quarter of 2010 saw ups and down for the BDI with the index hovering around 3,000. It seems as if the market is balanced on a knife edge. High supply is likely to overmatch even very healthy demand growth rates – strongly dependant on China.
Chinese iron ore imports continue to remain firm. In the first quarter of this year, China has imported an average of 51.68 million tons (mt) of ore. In 2009, iron ore imports reached a monthly average of 52.37mt, leaving this year’s ore imports just 1% short of 2009 levels, but still very healthy at 14.7mt (40%) more than 2008 levels. With steel prices rising above those of 2009 – Chinese iron ore imports will continue as the prime driver in the dry bulk market.
However, the present spot rates are not expected to stay that low as time charter rates stay strong as illustrated by the reported BHP Billiton booking of a Capesize vessel for 3-5 months at USD/day 37,000 - more than 30% premium to spot. The current FFA (Forward Freight Agreement) rates also point in that direction with Capesize Q2 FFA going up to USD/day 35,750 and Panamax Q2 going down to USD/day 28,500.
Supply:
The active fleet has grown by 3.5% during first quarter of 2010, caused by deliveries of 16 million DWT of newbuildings offset by just 1 million DWT being demolished. Since BIMCO Bulletin 1/2010, the total dry bulk order book has increased by 5.5 million DWT. It seems as though the optimism from surprisingly healthy freight rate levels in 2009 has made contracting go on – despite the fact that the 285 million DWT that comprises the order book today is doomed to make challenging markets in short as well as long-term.
Year-to-date deliveries in capesize amount to 47 ships comprising 8.7 million new DWT, resulting in an increased fleet size of 5% so far in 2010 and active Capesize vessel number 1,000 has just been delivered. At the beginning of 2009, 822 Capesize vessels were active, but an inflow of 112 newbuildings and 29 converted vessels was added to the existing fleet, counterbalanced by just 9 demolitions, leaving a fleet tonnage growth of 18.5% in 2009.
An additional 305 Capesize vessels are scheduled for delivery in 2010, but “only” 183 will hit the water, when applying the BIMCO assumptions for supply forecast as described next to the graphics. In total, this will in turn mean that Capesize tonnage could grow by 21% when fine-tuning for an average scrapping age of 26 years for Capesize vessels
as compared to the average of 30 years for the overall fleet.
BIMCO forecasts inflow of new dry bulk tonnage in 2010 to reach 76 million DWT, offset by demolition of as much as 13 million DWT. This could make the fleet grow by 14% in 2010 as compared to 10% in 2009. Deliveries in 2011 are forecast to be even higher before supply growth comes down in 2012.
Clarkson’s have scheduled deliveries of 120-130 million DWT in 2010. BIMCO assumes that 10% of the entire order book will not be built and one third of the rest will be deferred by one year. Furthermore, the demolition potential is calculated to 49 million DWT, equal to all vessels aged 30 or above to be demolished by the end of 2013.
Outlook:
The fortunes of the dry bulk markets are basically down to the fortunes of China. March was the 13th straight month that the official Chinese PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) has stood above the threshold of 50 that demarcates expansion from contraction, indicating that the Chinese economy is on a stable and relatively fast growth track. PMI rose to 55.1% in March, up 3.1% on last month, according to data released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing.
The housing market and huge infrastructure projects have been primary beneficiaries of the Chinese Government’s stimulus package. With the construction sector being the number one steel user, consuming around 50% of Chinese steel, it goes without saying that a continuance of the strength in this sector is vital for the health of the dry bulk freight rates.
Freight rates are forecast by MSI to drift sideways on current levels over the next 6 months. Capesize rates are forecast to stay around USD 30-35,000 per day while the smaller vessel types could see rates go down from current levels to around USD 16-24,000 per day.
Current news:
BHP Billiton has reached agreement to sell the majority of its iron ore to Asian steel mills on shorter term contracts, ending more than 40 years of annual pricing. Brazilian Vale have also inked new iron ore prices – resulting in price hikes of around 90%– indicating a continued strong demand for the vital raw material in steel production. Contract prices for coking coal are also expected higher.
Meanwhile, the China-Rio Tinto bribery case has just been settled. The court in Shanghai sentenced the four convicted Australian mining giant Rio Tinto employees to prison for a total 39 years. They were found guilty after having admitted to accepting about USD 13 million in bribes from private steel mills that wanted to avoid purchasing iron ore from more costly state-run mills. The arrangement undercut the state’s China Iron and Steel Association’s desire for a united front in negotiating with Australian suppliers. Shortly after the verdict the employees were sacked for clear violation of Chinese Law and Rio Tinto’s code of conduct. China claims its steel sector paid as much at USD 160 million too much last year for iron ore because of bribery and espionage. While the three Chinese defendants have decided to appeal terms, the Australian national Stern Hu appears to be the only one not appealing terms.
Source: Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 13 April 11
CAPESIZE VESSELS ARE DELIVERED AT A PACE OF ONE NEW VESSEL EVERY SECOND DAY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In a clear sign that it will take a significant rise in global seaborne dry bulk trade in order to be able to absorb the flurry of new building tonn ...
Sunday, 10 April 11
SOFT FREIGHT MARKET TREND LIKELY TO BE CONTINUED - VISTAAR SHIPPING
COALspot.com - The freight market continued to soften further with the BDI breaking the 1,500 points and closing at 1376 points down by almost 10 pc ...
Thursday, 07 April 11
HANDY RATES SLIDING NOW - FEARNBULK
Handy
Slowly softening rates as more tonnage is accumulating in the Atlantic basin.The trans-Atlantic round is around $15k pd with trips to ...
Thursday, 07 April 11
DRY BULK MARKET PLUNGING EVEN FURTHER ON LOW CARGO DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has continued its falling pattern this week, with every day proving to be painful for ship owners, especially those of the large ...
Thursday, 07 April 11
INDIKA BUYS MITRABAHTERA AT US$ 0.183
PT Indika Energy Tbk (INDY), integrated energy company, today has exercised an option agreement to acquire 51% shareholding in newly listed coal tug ...
|
|
|
Showing 5311 to 5315 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
|
| |
| |
|
