We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 17 April 10
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - BIMCO
 Strong Chinese steel market is set to cushion the flood of new Capesize vessels entering the dry bulk fleet Demand: The first quarter of 2010 saw ups and down for the BDI with the index hovering around 3,000. It seems as if the market is balanced on a knife edge. High supply is likely to overmatch even very healthy demand growth rates – strongly dependant on China.
Chinese iron ore imports continue to remain firm. In the first quarter of this year, China has imported an average of 51.68 million tons (mt) of ore. In 2009, iron ore imports reached a monthly average of 52.37mt, leaving this year’s ore imports just 1% short of 2009 levels, but still very healthy at 14.7mt (40%) more than 2008 levels. With steel prices rising above those of 2009 – Chinese iron ore imports will continue as the prime driver in the dry bulk market.
However, the present spot rates are not expected to stay that low as time charter rates stay strong as illustrated by the reported BHP Billiton booking of a Capesize vessel for 3-5 months at USD/day 37,000 - more than 30% premium to spot. The current FFA (Forward Freight Agreement) rates also point in that direction with Capesize Q2 FFA going up to USD/day 35,750 and Panamax Q2 going down to USD/day 28,500.
Supply:
The active fleet has grown by 3.5% during first quarter of 2010, caused by deliveries of 16 million DWT of newbuildings offset by just 1 million DWT being demolished. Since BIMCO Bulletin 1/2010, the total dry bulk order book has increased by 5.5 million DWT. It seems as though the optimism from surprisingly healthy freight rate levels in 2009 has made contracting go on – despite the fact that the 285 million DWT that comprises the order book today is doomed to make challenging markets in short as well as long-term.
Year-to-date deliveries in capesize amount to 47 ships comprising 8.7 million new DWT, resulting in an increased fleet size of 5% so far in 2010 and active Capesize vessel number 1,000 has just been delivered. At the beginning of 2009, 822 Capesize vessels were active, but an inflow of 112 newbuildings and 29 converted vessels was added to the existing fleet, counterbalanced by just 9 demolitions, leaving a fleet tonnage growth of 18.5% in 2009.
An additional 305 Capesize vessels are scheduled for delivery in 2010, but “only” 183 will hit the water, when applying the BIMCO assumptions for supply forecast as described next to the graphics. In total, this will in turn mean that Capesize tonnage could grow by 21% when fine-tuning for an average scrapping age of 26 years for Capesize vessels
as compared to the average of 30 years for the overall fleet.
BIMCO forecasts inflow of new dry bulk tonnage in 2010 to reach 76 million DWT, offset by demolition of as much as 13 million DWT. This could make the fleet grow by 14% in 2010 as compared to 10% in 2009. Deliveries in 2011 are forecast to be even higher before supply growth comes down in 2012.
Clarkson’s have scheduled deliveries of 120-130 million DWT in 2010. BIMCO assumes that 10% of the entire order book will not be built and one third of the rest will be deferred by one year. Furthermore, the demolition potential is calculated to 49 million DWT, equal to all vessels aged 30 or above to be demolished by the end of 2013.
Outlook:
The fortunes of the dry bulk markets are basically down to the fortunes of China. March was the 13th straight month that the official Chinese PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) has stood above the threshold of 50 that demarcates expansion from contraction, indicating that the Chinese economy is on a stable and relatively fast growth track. PMI rose to 55.1% in March, up 3.1% on last month, according to data released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing.
The housing market and huge infrastructure projects have been primary beneficiaries of the Chinese Government’s stimulus package. With the construction sector being the number one steel user, consuming around 50% of Chinese steel, it goes without saying that a continuance of the strength in this sector is vital for the health of the dry bulk freight rates.
Freight rates are forecast by MSI to drift sideways on current levels over the next 6 months. Capesize rates are forecast to stay around USD 30-35,000 per day while the smaller vessel types could see rates go down from current levels to around USD 16-24,000 per day.
Current news:
BHP Billiton has reached agreement to sell the majority of its iron ore to Asian steel mills on shorter term contracts, ending more than 40 years of annual pricing. Brazilian Vale have also inked new iron ore prices – resulting in price hikes of around 90%– indicating a continued strong demand for the vital raw material in steel production. Contract prices for coking coal are also expected higher.
Meanwhile, the China-Rio Tinto bribery case has just been settled. The court in Shanghai sentenced the four convicted Australian mining giant Rio Tinto employees to prison for a total 39 years. They were found guilty after having admitted to accepting about USD 13 million in bribes from private steel mills that wanted to avoid purchasing iron ore from more costly state-run mills. The arrangement undercut the state’s China Iron and Steel Association’s desire for a united front in negotiating with Australian suppliers. Shortly after the verdict the employees were sacked for clear violation of Chinese Law and Rio Tinto’s code of conduct. China claims its steel sector paid as much at USD 160 million too much last year for iron ore because of bribery and espionage. While the three Chinese defendants have decided to appeal terms, the Australian national Stern Hu appears to be the only one not appealing terms.
Source: Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Thursday, 28 April 11
BALTIC DRY INDEX NUDGES UP AFTER DAYS OF LOSSES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
After consecutive falls, the dry bulk freight market, as followed through the Baltic Dry Index, finally caught a breather yesterday, with the BDI ma ...
Wednesday, 27 April 11
KEWESPO CALLS FOR 765KT OF THERMAL COAL
COALspot.com - South Korea's East-West Power Co's (KEWESPO) has issued a tender to buy total 765,000 tonnes of thermal coal for delivery between J ...
Wednesday, 27 April 11
HARUM ENERGY TO PAY RP 659.1B IN DIVIDENDS - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, Indonesian coal miner Harum Energy is planning to pay out Rp 659.1 billion (US$76.46 million) in dividends this year ...
Wednesday, 27 April 11
TSIS $5 MILLION PLANT TO START PRODUCING UPGRADED COAL - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakartapost reported that, PT Total Sinergy International (TSI), in association with Agritrade Resources Limited of Hong Kong, will upgrade its ...
Wednesday, 27 April 11
RAIN CONSIDERS COAL MINES TAKEOVER - INSIDER STORIES
Indonesian's tenth largest coal miner in term of coal concession, PT Resource Alam Indonesia Tbk (KKGI), is considering to acquire several coalmine ...
|
|
|
Showing 5286 to 5290 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
|
| |
| |
|
