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Saturday, 17 April 10
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - BIMCO
 Strong Chinese steel market is set to cushion the flood of new Capesize vessels entering the dry bulk fleet Demand: The first quarter of 2010 saw ups and down for the BDI with the index hovering around 3,000. It seems as if the market is balanced on a knife edge. High supply is likely to overmatch even very healthy demand growth rates – strongly dependant on China.
Chinese iron ore imports continue to remain firm. In the first quarter of this year, China has imported an average of 51.68 million tons (mt) of ore. In 2009, iron ore imports reached a monthly average of 52.37mt, leaving this year’s ore imports just 1% short of 2009 levels, but still very healthy at 14.7mt (40%) more than 2008 levels. With steel prices rising above those of 2009 – Chinese iron ore imports will continue as the prime driver in the dry bulk market.
However, the present spot rates are not expected to stay that low as time charter rates stay strong as illustrated by the reported BHP Billiton booking of a Capesize vessel for 3-5 months at USD/day 37,000 - more than 30% premium to spot. The current FFA (Forward Freight Agreement) rates also point in that direction with Capesize Q2 FFA going up to USD/day 35,750 and Panamax Q2 going down to USD/day 28,500.
Supply:
The active fleet has grown by 3.5% during first quarter of 2010, caused by deliveries of 16 million DWT of newbuildings offset by just 1 million DWT being demolished. Since BIMCO Bulletin 1/2010, the total dry bulk order book has increased by 5.5 million DWT. It seems as though the optimism from surprisingly healthy freight rate levels in 2009 has made contracting go on – despite the fact that the 285 million DWT that comprises the order book today is doomed to make challenging markets in short as well as long-term.
Year-to-date deliveries in capesize amount to 47 ships comprising 8.7 million new DWT, resulting in an increased fleet size of 5% so far in 2010 and active Capesize vessel number 1,000 has just been delivered. At the beginning of 2009, 822 Capesize vessels were active, but an inflow of 112 newbuildings and 29 converted vessels was added to the existing fleet, counterbalanced by just 9 demolitions, leaving a fleet tonnage growth of 18.5% in 2009.
An additional 305 Capesize vessels are scheduled for delivery in 2010, but “only” 183 will hit the water, when applying the BIMCO assumptions for supply forecast as described next to the graphics. In total, this will in turn mean that Capesize tonnage could grow by 21% when fine-tuning for an average scrapping age of 26 years for Capesize vessels
as compared to the average of 30 years for the overall fleet.
BIMCO forecasts inflow of new dry bulk tonnage in 2010 to reach 76 million DWT, offset by demolition of as much as 13 million DWT. This could make the fleet grow by 14% in 2010 as compared to 10% in 2009. Deliveries in 2011 are forecast to be even higher before supply growth comes down in 2012.
Clarkson’s have scheduled deliveries of 120-130 million DWT in 2010. BIMCO assumes that 10% of the entire order book will not be built and one third of the rest will be deferred by one year. Furthermore, the demolition potential is calculated to 49 million DWT, equal to all vessels aged 30 or above to be demolished by the end of 2013.
Outlook:
The fortunes of the dry bulk markets are basically down to the fortunes of China. March was the 13th straight month that the official Chinese PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) has stood above the threshold of 50 that demarcates expansion from contraction, indicating that the Chinese economy is on a stable and relatively fast growth track. PMI rose to 55.1% in March, up 3.1% on last month, according to data released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing.
The housing market and huge infrastructure projects have been primary beneficiaries of the Chinese Government’s stimulus package. With the construction sector being the number one steel user, consuming around 50% of Chinese steel, it goes without saying that a continuance of the strength in this sector is vital for the health of the dry bulk freight rates.
Freight rates are forecast by MSI to drift sideways on current levels over the next 6 months. Capesize rates are forecast to stay around USD 30-35,000 per day while the smaller vessel types could see rates go down from current levels to around USD 16-24,000 per day.
Current news:
BHP Billiton has reached agreement to sell the majority of its iron ore to Asian steel mills on shorter term contracts, ending more than 40 years of annual pricing. Brazilian Vale have also inked new iron ore prices – resulting in price hikes of around 90%– indicating a continued strong demand for the vital raw material in steel production. Contract prices for coking coal are also expected higher.
Meanwhile, the China-Rio Tinto bribery case has just been settled. The court in Shanghai sentenced the four convicted Australian mining giant Rio Tinto employees to prison for a total 39 years. They were found guilty after having admitted to accepting about USD 13 million in bribes from private steel mills that wanted to avoid purchasing iron ore from more costly state-run mills. The arrangement undercut the state’s China Iron and Steel Association’s desire for a united front in negotiating with Australian suppliers. Shortly after the verdict the employees were sacked for clear violation of Chinese Law and Rio Tinto’s code of conduct. China claims its steel sector paid as much at USD 160 million too much last year for iron ore because of bribery and espionage. While the three Chinese defendants have decided to appeal terms, the Australian national Stern Hu appears to be the only one not appealing terms.
Source: Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 22 August 11
NTPC TO IMPORT 16 MILLION TON OF COAL TO BRIDGE THE GAP
COALspot.com - NTPC to import 16 million tons of imported coal, which is equivalent to 23-24 million tons of Indian coal to bridge the gap.
" ...
Monday, 22 August 11
MACRO ECONOMICS - PETER SAND BIMCO / HELLENIC SHIPPING
The US is jeopardising the global recovery as job creation remains top challenge across the board.
Global economy: While growth in most emerging ...
Sunday, 21 August 11
SUPRAMAX AVAILABILITY WAS TIGHT DUE TO UPCOMING RAMADAN HOLIDAYS
COALspot.com - The financial markets have been in turmoil with all major stock exchanges down and uncertainty prevails. However the shipping market ...
Sunday, 21 August 11
TUAH TURANGGA ACQUIRES DUTA NURCAHYA
Coal miner PT Tuah Turangga Agung, a wholly owned subsidiary of PT United Tractors Tbk (UNTR) via PT Pamapersada Nusantara), has agreed to acquire 6 ...
Friday, 19 August 11
INDIAS CICTL HAS ACHIEVED ONE MILLION TONS OF DISCHARGE
COALspot.com - Chettinad International Coal Terminal (CICTL) in Ennore port, a state of the art mechanized coal terminal, which was inaugurated on 28t ...
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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