We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 17 April 10
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - BIMCO
 Strong Chinese steel market is set to cushion the flood of new Capesize vessels entering the dry bulk fleet Demand: The first quarter of 2010 saw ups and down for the BDI with the index hovering around 3,000. It seems as if the market is balanced on a knife edge. High supply is likely to overmatch even very healthy demand growth rates – strongly dependant on China.
Chinese iron ore imports continue to remain firm. In the first quarter of this year, China has imported an average of 51.68 million tons (mt) of ore. In 2009, iron ore imports reached a monthly average of 52.37mt, leaving this year’s ore imports just 1% short of 2009 levels, but still very healthy at 14.7mt (40%) more than 2008 levels. With steel prices rising above those of 2009 – Chinese iron ore imports will continue as the prime driver in the dry bulk market.
However, the present spot rates are not expected to stay that low as time charter rates stay strong as illustrated by the reported BHP Billiton booking of a Capesize vessel for 3-5 months at USD/day 37,000 - more than 30% premium to spot. The current FFA (Forward Freight Agreement) rates also point in that direction with Capesize Q2 FFA going up to USD/day 35,750 and Panamax Q2 going down to USD/day 28,500.
Supply:
The active fleet has grown by 3.5% during first quarter of 2010, caused by deliveries of 16 million DWT of newbuildings offset by just 1 million DWT being demolished. Since BIMCO Bulletin 1/2010, the total dry bulk order book has increased by 5.5 million DWT. It seems as though the optimism from surprisingly healthy freight rate levels in 2009 has made contracting go on – despite the fact that the 285 million DWT that comprises the order book today is doomed to make challenging markets in short as well as long-term.
Year-to-date deliveries in capesize amount to 47 ships comprising 8.7 million new DWT, resulting in an increased fleet size of 5% so far in 2010 and active Capesize vessel number 1,000 has just been delivered. At the beginning of 2009, 822 Capesize vessels were active, but an inflow of 112 newbuildings and 29 converted vessels was added to the existing fleet, counterbalanced by just 9 demolitions, leaving a fleet tonnage growth of 18.5% in 2009.
An additional 305 Capesize vessels are scheduled for delivery in 2010, but “only” 183 will hit the water, when applying the BIMCO assumptions for supply forecast as described next to the graphics. In total, this will in turn mean that Capesize tonnage could grow by 21% when fine-tuning for an average scrapping age of 26 years for Capesize vessels
as compared to the average of 30 years for the overall fleet.
BIMCO forecasts inflow of new dry bulk tonnage in 2010 to reach 76 million DWT, offset by demolition of as much as 13 million DWT. This could make the fleet grow by 14% in 2010 as compared to 10% in 2009. Deliveries in 2011 are forecast to be even higher before supply growth comes down in 2012.
Clarkson’s have scheduled deliveries of 120-130 million DWT in 2010. BIMCO assumes that 10% of the entire order book will not be built and one third of the rest will be deferred by one year. Furthermore, the demolition potential is calculated to 49 million DWT, equal to all vessels aged 30 or above to be demolished by the end of 2013.
Outlook:
The fortunes of the dry bulk markets are basically down to the fortunes of China. March was the 13th straight month that the official Chinese PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) has stood above the threshold of 50 that demarcates expansion from contraction, indicating that the Chinese economy is on a stable and relatively fast growth track. PMI rose to 55.1% in March, up 3.1% on last month, according to data released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing.
The housing market and huge infrastructure projects have been primary beneficiaries of the Chinese Government’s stimulus package. With the construction sector being the number one steel user, consuming around 50% of Chinese steel, it goes without saying that a continuance of the strength in this sector is vital for the health of the dry bulk freight rates.
Freight rates are forecast by MSI to drift sideways on current levels over the next 6 months. Capesize rates are forecast to stay around USD 30-35,000 per day while the smaller vessel types could see rates go down from current levels to around USD 16-24,000 per day.
Current news:
BHP Billiton has reached agreement to sell the majority of its iron ore to Asian steel mills on shorter term contracts, ending more than 40 years of annual pricing. Brazilian Vale have also inked new iron ore prices – resulting in price hikes of around 90%– indicating a continued strong demand for the vital raw material in steel production. Contract prices for coking coal are also expected higher.
Meanwhile, the China-Rio Tinto bribery case has just been settled. The court in Shanghai sentenced the four convicted Australian mining giant Rio Tinto employees to prison for a total 39 years. They were found guilty after having admitted to accepting about USD 13 million in bribes from private steel mills that wanted to avoid purchasing iron ore from more costly state-run mills. The arrangement undercut the state’s China Iron and Steel Association’s desire for a united front in negotiating with Australian suppliers. Shortly after the verdict the employees were sacked for clear violation of Chinese Law and Rio Tinto’s code of conduct. China claims its steel sector paid as much at USD 160 million too much last year for iron ore because of bribery and espionage. While the three Chinese defendants have decided to appeal terms, the Australian national Stern Hu appears to be the only one not appealing terms.
Source: Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Thursday, 15 September 11
INDIAN GOVT PLANS TO DEVELOP 9 NEW MAJOR PORTS BY 2016 - INVEST MONEY / HELLENIC SHIPPING
The government has announced to make a investment of more than Rs 22,000 crore (approximately US$ 4,623,791,331) to develop nine new major ...
Thursday, 15 September 11
BOTSWANA COAL AND ENERGY CONFERENCE 2011
Press Release - Botswana Coal and Energy Conference 2011 | 29-30 November 2011 | Gaborone. Botswana represents Africa’s exciting new coal and ...
Thursday, 15 September 11
DRY BULK MARKET EDGING FURTHER UP THE SCALE, CLOSING IN ON 2,000 POINTS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market was up once again yesterday, reaching 1,927 points, or 1.375 higher on the day. Thus, it has kept its rising trend established d ...
Wednesday, 14 September 11
INDO STRAITS BAGS 2.4 MILLION TON COAL TRANSPORTATION CONTRACT FROM ARUTMIN
COALspot.com - PT Indo Straits Tbk (PTIS) bagged a contract to tranship about 2.40 million tons of coal over an initial period of 6 months fro ...
Wednesday, 14 September 11
DUTA PERTIWI DISCOVERS COAL RESERVE - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Duta Pertiwi Nusantara Tbk (DPNS) yesterday steeply jumped 24.56% to Rp710 a share after the company discove ...
|
|
|
Showing 5081 to 5085 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The University of Queensland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
