We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 17 April 10
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - BIMCO
 Strong Chinese steel market is set to cushion the flood of new Capesize vessels entering the dry bulk fleet Demand: The first quarter of 2010 saw ups and down for the BDI with the index hovering around 3,000. It seems as if the market is balanced on a knife edge. High supply is likely to overmatch even very healthy demand growth rates – strongly dependant on China.
Chinese iron ore imports continue to remain firm. In the first quarter of this year, China has imported an average of 51.68 million tons (mt) of ore. In 2009, iron ore imports reached a monthly average of 52.37mt, leaving this year’s ore imports just 1% short of 2009 levels, but still very healthy at 14.7mt (40%) more than 2008 levels. With steel prices rising above those of 2009 – Chinese iron ore imports will continue as the prime driver in the dry bulk market.
However, the present spot rates are not expected to stay that low as time charter rates stay strong as illustrated by the reported BHP Billiton booking of a Capesize vessel for 3-5 months at USD/day 37,000 - more than 30% premium to spot. The current FFA (Forward Freight Agreement) rates also point in that direction with Capesize Q2 FFA going up to USD/day 35,750 and Panamax Q2 going down to USD/day 28,500.
Supply:
The active fleet has grown by 3.5% during first quarter of 2010, caused by deliveries of 16 million DWT of newbuildings offset by just 1 million DWT being demolished. Since BIMCO Bulletin 1/2010, the total dry bulk order book has increased by 5.5 million DWT. It seems as though the optimism from surprisingly healthy freight rate levels in 2009 has made contracting go on – despite the fact that the 285 million DWT that comprises the order book today is doomed to make challenging markets in short as well as long-term.
Year-to-date deliveries in capesize amount to 47 ships comprising 8.7 million new DWT, resulting in an increased fleet size of 5% so far in 2010 and active Capesize vessel number 1,000 has just been delivered. At the beginning of 2009, 822 Capesize vessels were active, but an inflow of 112 newbuildings and 29 converted vessels was added to the existing fleet, counterbalanced by just 9 demolitions, leaving a fleet tonnage growth of 18.5% in 2009.
An additional 305 Capesize vessels are scheduled for delivery in 2010, but “only” 183 will hit the water, when applying the BIMCO assumptions for supply forecast as described next to the graphics. In total, this will in turn mean that Capesize tonnage could grow by 21% when fine-tuning for an average scrapping age of 26 years for Capesize vessels
as compared to the average of 30 years for the overall fleet.
BIMCO forecasts inflow of new dry bulk tonnage in 2010 to reach 76 million DWT, offset by demolition of as much as 13 million DWT. This could make the fleet grow by 14% in 2010 as compared to 10% in 2009. Deliveries in 2011 are forecast to be even higher before supply growth comes down in 2012.
Clarkson’s have scheduled deliveries of 120-130 million DWT in 2010. BIMCO assumes that 10% of the entire order book will not be built and one third of the rest will be deferred by one year. Furthermore, the demolition potential is calculated to 49 million DWT, equal to all vessels aged 30 or above to be demolished by the end of 2013.
Outlook:
The fortunes of the dry bulk markets are basically down to the fortunes of China. March was the 13th straight month that the official Chinese PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) has stood above the threshold of 50 that demarcates expansion from contraction, indicating that the Chinese economy is on a stable and relatively fast growth track. PMI rose to 55.1% in March, up 3.1% on last month, according to data released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing.
The housing market and huge infrastructure projects have been primary beneficiaries of the Chinese Government’s stimulus package. With the construction sector being the number one steel user, consuming around 50% of Chinese steel, it goes without saying that a continuance of the strength in this sector is vital for the health of the dry bulk freight rates.
Freight rates are forecast by MSI to drift sideways on current levels over the next 6 months. Capesize rates are forecast to stay around USD 30-35,000 per day while the smaller vessel types could see rates go down from current levels to around USD 16-24,000 per day.
Current news:
BHP Billiton has reached agreement to sell the majority of its iron ore to Asian steel mills on shorter term contracts, ending more than 40 years of annual pricing. Brazilian Vale have also inked new iron ore prices – resulting in price hikes of around 90%– indicating a continued strong demand for the vital raw material in steel production. Contract prices for coking coal are also expected higher.
Meanwhile, the China-Rio Tinto bribery case has just been settled. The court in Shanghai sentenced the four convicted Australian mining giant Rio Tinto employees to prison for a total 39 years. They were found guilty after having admitted to accepting about USD 13 million in bribes from private steel mills that wanted to avoid purchasing iron ore from more costly state-run mills. The arrangement undercut the state’s China Iron and Steel Association’s desire for a united front in negotiating with Australian suppliers. Shortly after the verdict the employees were sacked for clear violation of Chinese Law and Rio Tinto’s code of conduct. China claims its steel sector paid as much at USD 160 million too much last year for iron ore because of bribery and espionage. While the three Chinese defendants have decided to appeal terms, the Australian national Stern Hu appears to be the only one not appealing terms.
Source: Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 28 September 11
ATLAS RESOURCES TO SELL 25% STAKE IN IPO - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, coal producer PT Atlas Resources Tbk, that is controlled by Indonesian businessman Andre Abdi, plans to sell 783.33 m ...
Tuesday, 27 September 11
A STRONG REBOUND FOR THE CAPE MARKET - BRS
A strong rebound for the Cape market, as cargoes continued to flow into the market and tonnage remained tight in the Atlantic, according to Barry Ro ...
Tuesday, 27 September 11
INTRACO SEALS US$25.3 MIO ORDER - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, Heavy equipment distributor PT Intraco Penta Tbk (INTA) obtained a US$25.3 million order on hand of heavy equipments ...
Sunday, 25 September 11
THE CHARTER RATES FOR INDONESIA TO INDIA WAS FIRM - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market moved up sharply with the cape Index up by 11 pct pushing the BDI by almost 6 pct and closing at 1,920 point ...
Saturday, 24 September 11
GOVT PLANS TO RENEGOTIATE ALL CONTRACTS INCLUDING FREEPORT - JP
The Jakarta Post reported that, the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry has confirmed plans to renegotiate all mining contracts including those wi ...
|
|
|
Showing 5061 to 5065 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
|
| |
| |
|
