We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 17 April 10
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - BIMCO
 Strong Chinese steel market is set to cushion the flood of new Capesize vessels entering the dry bulk fleet Demand: The first quarter of 2010 saw ups and down for the BDI with the index hovering around 3,000. It seems as if the market is balanced on a knife edge. High supply is likely to overmatch even very healthy demand growth rates – strongly dependant on China.
Chinese iron ore imports continue to remain firm. In the first quarter of this year, China has imported an average of 51.68 million tons (mt) of ore. In 2009, iron ore imports reached a monthly average of 52.37mt, leaving this year’s ore imports just 1% short of 2009 levels, but still very healthy at 14.7mt (40%) more than 2008 levels. With steel prices rising above those of 2009 – Chinese iron ore imports will continue as the prime driver in the dry bulk market.
However, the present spot rates are not expected to stay that low as time charter rates stay strong as illustrated by the reported BHP Billiton booking of a Capesize vessel for 3-5 months at USD/day 37,000 - more than 30% premium to spot. The current FFA (Forward Freight Agreement) rates also point in that direction with Capesize Q2 FFA going up to USD/day 35,750 and Panamax Q2 going down to USD/day 28,500.
Supply:
The active fleet has grown by 3.5% during first quarter of 2010, caused by deliveries of 16 million DWT of newbuildings offset by just 1 million DWT being demolished. Since BIMCO Bulletin 1/2010, the total dry bulk order book has increased by 5.5 million DWT. It seems as though the optimism from surprisingly healthy freight rate levels in 2009 has made contracting go on – despite the fact that the 285 million DWT that comprises the order book today is doomed to make challenging markets in short as well as long-term.
Year-to-date deliveries in capesize amount to 47 ships comprising 8.7 million new DWT, resulting in an increased fleet size of 5% so far in 2010 and active Capesize vessel number 1,000 has just been delivered. At the beginning of 2009, 822 Capesize vessels were active, but an inflow of 112 newbuildings and 29 converted vessels was added to the existing fleet, counterbalanced by just 9 demolitions, leaving a fleet tonnage growth of 18.5% in 2009.
An additional 305 Capesize vessels are scheduled for delivery in 2010, but “only” 183 will hit the water, when applying the BIMCO assumptions for supply forecast as described next to the graphics. In total, this will in turn mean that Capesize tonnage could grow by 21% when fine-tuning for an average scrapping age of 26 years for Capesize vessels
as compared to the average of 30 years for the overall fleet.
BIMCO forecasts inflow of new dry bulk tonnage in 2010 to reach 76 million DWT, offset by demolition of as much as 13 million DWT. This could make the fleet grow by 14% in 2010 as compared to 10% in 2009. Deliveries in 2011 are forecast to be even higher before supply growth comes down in 2012.
Clarkson’s have scheduled deliveries of 120-130 million DWT in 2010. BIMCO assumes that 10% of the entire order book will not be built and one third of the rest will be deferred by one year. Furthermore, the demolition potential is calculated to 49 million DWT, equal to all vessels aged 30 or above to be demolished by the end of 2013.
Outlook:
The fortunes of the dry bulk markets are basically down to the fortunes of China. March was the 13th straight month that the official Chinese PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) has stood above the threshold of 50 that demarcates expansion from contraction, indicating that the Chinese economy is on a stable and relatively fast growth track. PMI rose to 55.1% in March, up 3.1% on last month, according to data released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing.
The housing market and huge infrastructure projects have been primary beneficiaries of the Chinese Government’s stimulus package. With the construction sector being the number one steel user, consuming around 50% of Chinese steel, it goes without saying that a continuance of the strength in this sector is vital for the health of the dry bulk freight rates.
Freight rates are forecast by MSI to drift sideways on current levels over the next 6 months. Capesize rates are forecast to stay around USD 30-35,000 per day while the smaller vessel types could see rates go down from current levels to around USD 16-24,000 per day.
Current news:
BHP Billiton has reached agreement to sell the majority of its iron ore to Asian steel mills on shorter term contracts, ending more than 40 years of annual pricing. Brazilian Vale have also inked new iron ore prices – resulting in price hikes of around 90%– indicating a continued strong demand for the vital raw material in steel production. Contract prices for coking coal are also expected higher.
Meanwhile, the China-Rio Tinto bribery case has just been settled. The court in Shanghai sentenced the four convicted Australian mining giant Rio Tinto employees to prison for a total 39 years. They were found guilty after having admitted to accepting about USD 13 million in bribes from private steel mills that wanted to avoid purchasing iron ore from more costly state-run mills. The arrangement undercut the state’s China Iron and Steel Association’s desire for a united front in negotiating with Australian suppliers. Shortly after the verdict the employees were sacked for clear violation of Chinese Law and Rio Tinto’s code of conduct. China claims its steel sector paid as much at USD 160 million too much last year for iron ore because of bribery and espionage. While the three Chinese defendants have decided to appeal terms, the Australian national Stern Hu appears to be the only one not appealing terms.
Source: Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Monday, 10 October 11
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL TO BE THE NEW PIRACY HOTSPOT FOR THIS YEAR SAYS MARITIME SECURITY EXPERT - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The Mozambique Channel, as well as the entrance to the Persian Gulf, are expected to become some of the new pirate hotspots for piracy, says Richard ...
Sunday, 09 October 11
FREIGHT MARKET ENDED WITH A POSITIVE DIRECTION - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The market ended with a positive note with all the segments up except for handy size. The biggest gainer was Panamax index up by 11 p ...
Saturday, 08 October 11
INDONESIAN MINER PLANS $167M IPO TO FUEL SUMATRA COAL BOOM - JG
The Jakarta Globe reported that, coal miner Atlas Resources aims to raise as much as Rp 1.5 trillion ($167 million) in an initial public offering to ...
Friday, 07 October 11
MINING REGULATIONS , OBSTACLES AND GROWTH : INDIA VS INDONESIA - SUNIL K KUMBHAT
COALspot.com - The Govt of India has passed long pending Mines & Minerals (Regulation and Development) Bill, 2011, which seeks to replace ...
Friday, 07 October 11
$100M FOR EXPANSION INTO KALIMANTAN MINING: AKR
The Jakarta Globe, one of the leading English news paper in Indonesia reported that, AKR Corporindo, a fuel and chemical distributor, has set aside ...
|
|
|
Showing 5041 to 5045 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
|
| |
| |
|
