We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 17 April 10
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - BIMCO
 Strong Chinese steel market is set to cushion the flood of new Capesize vessels entering the dry bulk fleet Demand: The first quarter of 2010 saw ups and down for the BDI with the index hovering around 3,000. It seems as if the market is balanced on a knife edge. High supply is likely to overmatch even very healthy demand growth rates – strongly dependant on China.
Chinese iron ore imports continue to remain firm. In the first quarter of this year, China has imported an average of 51.68 million tons (mt) of ore. In 2009, iron ore imports reached a monthly average of 52.37mt, leaving this year’s ore imports just 1% short of 2009 levels, but still very healthy at 14.7mt (40%) more than 2008 levels. With steel prices rising above those of 2009 – Chinese iron ore imports will continue as the prime driver in the dry bulk market.
However, the present spot rates are not expected to stay that low as time charter rates stay strong as illustrated by the reported BHP Billiton booking of a Capesize vessel for 3-5 months at USD/day 37,000 - more than 30% premium to spot. The current FFA (Forward Freight Agreement) rates also point in that direction with Capesize Q2 FFA going up to USD/day 35,750 and Panamax Q2 going down to USD/day 28,500.
Supply:
The active fleet has grown by 3.5% during first quarter of 2010, caused by deliveries of 16 million DWT of newbuildings offset by just 1 million DWT being demolished. Since BIMCO Bulletin 1/2010, the total dry bulk order book has increased by 5.5 million DWT. It seems as though the optimism from surprisingly healthy freight rate levels in 2009 has made contracting go on – despite the fact that the 285 million DWT that comprises the order book today is doomed to make challenging markets in short as well as long-term.
Year-to-date deliveries in capesize amount to 47 ships comprising 8.7 million new DWT, resulting in an increased fleet size of 5% so far in 2010 and active Capesize vessel number 1,000 has just been delivered. At the beginning of 2009, 822 Capesize vessels were active, but an inflow of 112 newbuildings and 29 converted vessels was added to the existing fleet, counterbalanced by just 9 demolitions, leaving a fleet tonnage growth of 18.5% in 2009.
An additional 305 Capesize vessels are scheduled for delivery in 2010, but “only” 183 will hit the water, when applying the BIMCO assumptions for supply forecast as described next to the graphics. In total, this will in turn mean that Capesize tonnage could grow by 21% when fine-tuning for an average scrapping age of 26 years for Capesize vessels
as compared to the average of 30 years for the overall fleet.
BIMCO forecasts inflow of new dry bulk tonnage in 2010 to reach 76 million DWT, offset by demolition of as much as 13 million DWT. This could make the fleet grow by 14% in 2010 as compared to 10% in 2009. Deliveries in 2011 are forecast to be even higher before supply growth comes down in 2012.
Clarkson’s have scheduled deliveries of 120-130 million DWT in 2010. BIMCO assumes that 10% of the entire order book will not be built and one third of the rest will be deferred by one year. Furthermore, the demolition potential is calculated to 49 million DWT, equal to all vessels aged 30 or above to be demolished by the end of 2013.
Outlook:
The fortunes of the dry bulk markets are basically down to the fortunes of China. March was the 13th straight month that the official Chinese PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) has stood above the threshold of 50 that demarcates expansion from contraction, indicating that the Chinese economy is on a stable and relatively fast growth track. PMI rose to 55.1% in March, up 3.1% on last month, according to data released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing.
The housing market and huge infrastructure projects have been primary beneficiaries of the Chinese Government’s stimulus package. With the construction sector being the number one steel user, consuming around 50% of Chinese steel, it goes without saying that a continuance of the strength in this sector is vital for the health of the dry bulk freight rates.
Freight rates are forecast by MSI to drift sideways on current levels over the next 6 months. Capesize rates are forecast to stay around USD 30-35,000 per day while the smaller vessel types could see rates go down from current levels to around USD 16-24,000 per day.
Current news:
BHP Billiton has reached agreement to sell the majority of its iron ore to Asian steel mills on shorter term contracts, ending more than 40 years of annual pricing. Brazilian Vale have also inked new iron ore prices – resulting in price hikes of around 90%– indicating a continued strong demand for the vital raw material in steel production. Contract prices for coking coal are also expected higher.
Meanwhile, the China-Rio Tinto bribery case has just been settled. The court in Shanghai sentenced the four convicted Australian mining giant Rio Tinto employees to prison for a total 39 years. They were found guilty after having admitted to accepting about USD 13 million in bribes from private steel mills that wanted to avoid purchasing iron ore from more costly state-run mills. The arrangement undercut the state’s China Iron and Steel Association’s desire for a united front in negotiating with Australian suppliers. Shortly after the verdict the employees were sacked for clear violation of Chinese Law and Rio Tinto’s code of conduct. China claims its steel sector paid as much at USD 160 million too much last year for iron ore because of bribery and espionage. While the three Chinese defendants have decided to appeal terms, the Australian national Stern Hu appears to be the only one not appealing terms.
Source: Bimco / Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Thursday, 20 October 11
CAPESIZE - TUBARAO /QINGDAO BEING FIXED AT STRONG US$ 29.75 PMT
Handy
The Atlantic market is quite steady, and market seems to be around the same levels as last week. Fewer fixtures reported though. ...
Thursday, 20 October 11
BRACKEN INTERNATIONAL MINING LISTS ON FRANKFURT STOCK EXCHANGE
Press Release - Bracken International Mining (Code:1BM) listed on the Deutsche Börse’s Frankfurt Stock Exchange today at €1.00 with ...
Thursday, 20 October 11
CAPESIZES, SUPRAMAXES LEAD GAINS FOR DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Struggling to find additional support, but still managing to post gains, the dry bulk market has stabilized itself on higher levels again yesterday, ...
Wednesday, 19 October 11
METALLURGICAL COAL PRICES TO DROP BELOW US$240/TONNE - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie Says Metallurgical Coal Prices to Drop Below US$240/tonne by Q4 2012 But Long-term Demand Fundamentals Remain Robust
Wood Mackenzi ...
Wednesday, 19 October 11
SUPRAMAX MARKET WAS VERY FIRM LAST WEEK - BRS
With all sectors contributing positively, the BDI ended the week at 2,173 points (+8.6%), its highest level so far in 2011. The BCI stood at 3,587 ( ...
|
|
|
Showing 5021 to 5025 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The University of Queensland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
|
| |
| |
|
