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Thursday, 15 April 10
DRY BULK MARKET SLOWLY GAINING GROUND


The troubled and underperforming capesize sector of the dry bulk market has been experiencing an improved sentiment since Tuesday, a trend verified during Wednesday as well, with the relative Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) gaining ground for a second session in a row. Still, it is well behind the panamax market, in yet another “paradox” of the current market behavior. The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) ended yesterday’s session at 2,966 points up by 38 on a daily basis.

According to Fearnley’s latest week report “the capesize market has had a depressing week with rates falling across the board. Little or no period interest has been seen. Iron ore pricing agreements, combined with low freight rates have spurred some new selling, or at least putting ore on the water from Brazil, and we have seen Vale conclude a few vessels at low $23 (even $22 for overaged tonnage). The focus is on early ballasters, and as such little has emerged in terms of real direction for May, though the sentiment, backed by the paper market, is for an improvement in the rates. The Atlantic market still remains quiet and owners accepting lower than Pacific levels for the first time in a long time. Looking forward we are cautiously optimistic that there will be a small improvement in the near future” said the broker.

As for the panamax market, the report stated that “it experienced a sit back and watch scenario from both owners and charterers end last week and into the start of this week. There was no clear sign on where the market was going although the underlying sentiment was firm. Several grain cargoes from ECSA and coal from USEC entered the market this week and the tonnage supply is tight for prompt dates. Ballasters from the F.East fixed in region of $32,000 daily for ECSA/F.East cargoes on May dates. Pacific R/Vs are fixing in the upper 20´s. Tarv´s was fixing low 30´s and fronthauls mid 40´s. The firming spot market is also giving support to the period market. Rumors have it a 73k dwt was fixed on subs for 2 years trading at $24,000 daily with delivery PMO” concluded Fearnley’s.

Meanwhile, analysts from Commodore Research indicated in another update on Chinese commodity demand that China’s restrictions on iron ore imports have forced spot ore prices to increase sharply. Chinese iron ore fixtures have remained relatively firm this week, ore fixtures were very low yesterday and on Monday - but today they have increased. 

Chinese ore demand continues to remain firm, and, so far, importers are not truly heading a call to boycott Australian and Brazilian iron ore. Spot Indian iron ore prices have increased to approximately $146/ton FOB, an increase of $22 (18%) from April 5.

Commenting on the recent change of iron ore pricing system on a quarterly basis, analysts like Omar Nokta of Dahlman Rose stated that if the quoted Vale price is accurate, the dry bulk market could see significant upside in the coming weeks, as $100 would represent a significant discount to current spot prices.

"With more stability and increased visibility into iron ore pricing, the dry bulk market can begin to better reflect the stronger environment across the global industrial complex", Nokta said. He expects rates for capesize vessels to increase by 18% this year at $45,000/day.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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