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Wednesday, 07 April 10
DRY BULK MARKET LOOKING FOR DIRECTION


The dry bulk market has kept a low profile during the past week, as evidenced by the small changes of a usually rather turbulent Baltic Dry Index (BDI) from late 2008 and until today. Yesterday, the industry’s index was almost stagnant, falling by a marginal 10 points at 2,981, with the panamax and supramax sectors posting small gains, while the larger capesize vessels losing some ground.

The latest weekly report from Paris-based shipbrokers Barry Rogliano Salles (BRS) said that rates came under pressure last week, with all segments posting declines except the capsizes. “Overall the BDI logged a 3% drop, despite a 5% increase in Cape rates” said the broker.

Of course, the past week’s news were all about the outcome of the iron ore negotiations, where both participating sides turning up the heat. “China’s Iron and Steel Association called on its members to impose a two-month boycott of the three major miners in protest at steep price rises. CISA said stockpiles were sufficient to keep the mills supplied for this time, although opinion was divided whether CISA’s 120 members, accounting for 90% of China’s steel output, could be persuaded to comply. Members may fear a repeat of last year, when they refused prices agreed by the Japanese only to see spot levels continue to climb.

Meanwhile Vale stated it had signed new quarterly contract deals with the vast majority of its clients, equivalent to 90% of sales volumes under contract. It is not clear how many Chinese buyers are included in this total, however. More than three-quarters of Vale’s sales to China were made on a spot basis in 2009. However the Brazilian miner did say it expected to sell 45% of its volumes to China on the spot market in the current year” said BRS.

On the capesize front, it was a stronger week, although for the most part gains were only evident on the Tubarao - China, and Richards Bay - China routes where rates jumped between 7%-13% between Monday and Thursday. Rates hardly moved in the Atlantic, where there was little fixing. Sentiment still seems relatively positive for the short term, with both period charters and forward rates above spot prices. Third quarter FFA rates are currently trading at US$32,570/day. Overall the four time charter finished at US$30,641/day on April 1 ahead of the Easter holiday. However at the resumption of business on Tuesday it fell back to US$29,919, while the BCI fell 52 points to 3,377 points.

Meanwhile, on the Panamax front and particularly in the Pacific, cargo enquiry, especially for Indonesian coal, returned again, after an almost two-week break. “Time charter levels are now above $28,000 per day for a modern Panamax delivery. At the same time, we have also seen many vessels open for prompt dates, especially older vessels without RightShip approval. Some iron ore traders are still active, especially on WCI and PG: older Panamaxes open WCI were fixing at US$28,000/day back to China for dates at the end of April, and at least US$37,000 daily for a modern Panamax open PG prompt. Some vessels open Singapore or south east Asia are still opting for ECSA grain, with modern Panamaxes pushing for over US$33,000 per day and older vessels for mid/high US$20,000s” said BRS.

As for the smaller supramax/handy vessel types, rates were declining across the board last week, with the supramax time charter average ending the week at $25,188, compared to $28,829 in the previous week. As for the handy market it stood at $19,781 versus $21,434 a week earlier. “The underlying sentiment remains firm, however, with still a fairly large amount of iron ore to move out of India, coal out of Indonesia and grains out of ECSA. This being said, open positions remain plentiful though not always exactly where they are needed. The immediate effect has been that charterers have become more picky when it comes to short period tonnage, with positioning becoming of dramatic importance” concluded BRS.
Source:
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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