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Wednesday, 31 March 10
DRY BULK MARKET STILL MODERATELY FALLING, BUT POSITIVE SIGNS APPEAR ON THE HORIZON - HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The irregularities of the current dry bulk market have been more than evident in the fact that panamax vessels today earn more than their larger capesize counterparts, while the even smaller supramax carriers have the ability to earn just as much as the capesizes. Analysts and brokers had warned about the volatility of the market, as a result of the ever so catalytical factor of the Chinese iron ore imports and their swings of mood. This factor has weighed in more than anything else in the market.
As a result, at the time being the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) keeps on retreating, with yesterday’s session marking yet another tumble, this time under the 3,000 point mark, to end the day at 2,982, down by 39.
According to the latest weekly analysis by Commodore Research, last week’s increase in spot chartering activity is an encouraging sign. Adding to optimism about the market’s prospects are the declining iron ore and coal port stockpile, as is the drop in Chinese steel stockpiles. “Dry bulk commodity prices (iron ore, steel, coal, grain) remain firm and Chinese industrial demand shows little sign of slowing.
In addition, global port congestion is still very high. Capesize freight rates will likely continue to come under pressure and maintain volatility as Chinese steel mills and iron ore miners negotiate iron ore pricing and China changes its short-term import patterns. The rest of the market will be affected and rates for all vessel classes will likely continue to move closer to balance. Overall spot chartering activity, however, is firm and will likely remain at moderate levels which should help dry bulk freight rates find support. Several developments (including a severe drought in southwest China restricting hydropower production and resulting in increase in thermal coal demand, long-haul Colombian thermal coal exports being shipped to India, and a significant rise in congestion at Australian ports, etc) will continue to affect the market” said Commodore.
For instance, port congestion at Australia’s Haypoint and Darlymple Bay coal terminals is now increased to approximately 102 vessels, 14 more than the previous week and almost double the amount of vessels anchored at the ports in early February.
“Approximately 221 vessels are now anchored at Australia’s ports, 21 more than a week ago and 11 more than last year’s record 210 vessels anchored at the ports at the end of December 2009. Rising congestion in Australia (and robust congestion worldwide) will continue to support freight rates, but the latest developments in Australia will also result in an estimated loss of 4 to 8 million tons of Australian coal exports. Coking coal will be most significantly affected, and buyers in Japan and South Korea might soon be forced to import long-haul coking coal from the United States and other longer-haul exporters” said the research.
Additional factors expected to support dry bulk freight rates in the near future include Colombian thermal coal exports to India and the possibility of Indian buyers signing long-term contracts. Also, the ongoing drought in southwestern China has the potential to result in a moderate increase in near-term Chinese thermal coal demand. A large portion of the region’s electricity is normally produced by hydropower generation.
In the upcoming weeks, more thermal coal will likely be railed to the region and additional thermal coal produced electricity will be transported through China’s power grids. It remains to be seen when iron ore fixtures will improve - but disruptions in China and Australia will likely lead to an increase in thermal coal demand and longer-haul shipments of both thermal and coking coal” concludes Commodore Research.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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Thursday, 15 April 10
DRY BULK MARKET SLOWLY GAINING GROUND
The troubled and underperforming capesize sector of the dry bulk market has been experiencing an improved sentiment since Tuesday, a trend verified ...
Tuesday, 13 April 10
CHINA COAL SEEING 'STRONG DEMAND,' PUDA COAL CFO SAYS - BUSINESS WEEK
Business Week reported that, China coal prices will increase this year as the nation’s industry expands and a drought in the southwest region ...
Tuesday, 13 April 10
PEABODY, COAL INDIA CONFIRM 'EARLY STAGE' TALKS - MINING WEEKLY
Mining Weekly reported that, US coal-miner Peabody Energy is holding discussions with Coal India, the company said on Monday, after an Australian ne ...
Tuesday, 13 April 10
ANGLO PREDICTS HIGH COAL PRICES, STEADY SUPPLY
Busrep / Reuters reported that, Coal prices were expected to remain strong this year, while exports would match last year's despite rail cons ...
Tuesday, 13 April 10
THE PANAMAX MARKET CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN - BRS DRY BULK
Panamax rates continue to beat the market, and the Panamax 4TC is now trading at a 25% premium to the Cape 4TC — the biggest margin since the ...
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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