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Friday, 01 May 20
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND TO FALL BY ABOUT 8% IN 2020,THE LARGEST DROP SINCE WORLD WAR II - IEA
IEAWe expect global coal demand to fall by about 8% in 2020, the largest drop since World War II, with coal use declining in virtually every sector of every region in the world - IEA
 
Acording to IEA, in China, coal demand will decline in 2020 by around 5%, despite the gradual recovery since February lockdown. Coal-fired power generation will be hit especially hard, because the power system is crowded by low variable cost hydro, wind, solar and nuclear power. If a more favourable dispatch for coal power plants is established, this could offer some relief for coal power producers.
 
An even greater decline in coal demand is expected in India, where economic growth and power production are slowing significantly. Despite the recovery expected later in the year, a decline in coal power generation will push coal use down for the second year in a row.
 
IEA further noted that, in the rest of the world, coal demand will decline steeply in 2020. Even in Southeast Asia, the region with fastest growth in the recent years, where coal power generation is curtailed by lower electricity demand, especially in Malaysia and Thailand. We also expect significant declines in coal demand in advanced economies: by 25% in the United States, around 20% in the European Union, and 5% to 10% in Korea and Japan.
 
In the current situation, IEA said, the uncertainty about the outlook for coal is the highest among all fuels. In large part, this is because its use is concentrated in the power sector, and is strongly dependent on the level of electricity demand. In particular, coal is dominant in China and India, the largest and the third-largest electricity users in the world. In addition, the use of coal in power generation is squeezed by low-carbon generation, including hydro, wind, solar and nuclear power, which have been less affected by the Covid‑19 crisis. Hence, differences in economic activity and the associated electricity demand have an outsized effect on coal-fired electricity generation and overall coal consumption.
 
For example, global coal use could decline only half as much if China and other large consumers of coal recover more quickly from the crisis. Even so, many trends would remain unchanged, such as double-digit percentage drops in the European Union and the United States, single-digit declines in Japan and Korea, and a drop in India. In some markets, coal demand may even grow if recoveries are faster, such as in Southeast Asia, driven by Indonesia and Viet Nam.
 
Projections of 2020 coal trends need a final caveat regarding China, as the Chinese government has pledged to implement a fiscal and monetary stimulus to its economy. The magnitude and design of that stimulus – as well as how energy-, electricity- and coal-intensive it is – might change coal use trends significantly in China and therefore in the world.


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