COALspot.com keeps you connected across the coal world
  • JUNE 2020 INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FOR EXPORTS AND DOMESTIC BUYERS INCLUDING POWER PRODUCERS FIXED AT US$ 52.98 A TON

Submit Your Articles
We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining, shipping, etc.

To Submit your article please click here.

International Energy Events


WTI Crude Oil

BRENT Crude Oil

Search News
Latest CoalNews Headlines
Tuesday, 10 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: DEMAND DOWNGRADES FOR BULK COMMODITIES - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood MackenzieThe coronavirus outbreak is a rapidly evolving news story – and a real wildcard for bulks demand. Our global experts are monitoring the impact closely, and this article provides a summary of our latest forecasts for steel, iron ore, metallurgical coal and thermal coal.
 
When will China return to ‘business as usual’?
Looking first to the macro drivers, with cases of coronavirus declining in China, our base case assumption is that the country will effectively return to normal in April.
 
However, whilst companies may officially resume work, utilisation rates will be low for several weeks due to the impact of supply chain disruptions, and, more importantly, labour shortages. Right now, data from the Chinese authorities on national passenger volumes doesn’t point to a significant return to work with rail and air passenger volumes at negligible levels and only a modest uptick in highway volumes. This suggests that as many as 150 million of China’s migrant workers remain in their home towns, rather than returning to work.
 
Steel
Our working assumption is for Chinese finished-steel consumption to decline by 2.8% in 2020. With a quick restart and government stimulus, demand might fall a mere 1%. But the longer the current situation continues, the more the downside risks stack up – our working assumption is for a bigger fall. People are not earning money. When they return to work, are they likely to spend? Will the government stimulate investment in steel-intensive infrastructure? Or divert budget to healthcare and compensation to businesses? If consumption is put on hold, then full-year steel demand declines are likely to be in the range of -2.5% to -5%.
 
We currently expect Chinese crude steel production to see a 2.4% decline in 2020. So far, Chinese steel production – particularly via the blast furnace (BF) and basic oxygen furnace (BOF) route – has not been impacted as severely as demand. But that seems set to change. We have recently spoken with 20 steelmakers who are experiencing production disruptions, primarily due to high finished steel inventories followed by a shortage of raw materials. Although Chinese steelmakers could raise utilisation later in the year, the reduction in demand means they probably won’t need to.
 
As the charts below show, weak demand and logistics constraints have caused steel inventories to skyrocket, especially longs. Even if logistics problems are resolved, steel inventories will not immediately deplete until demand picks up.
 
Iron ore
Iron ore fares relatively better than crude steel, because electric arc furnace (EAF) steelmaking and scrap bear the brunt of the impact – at least initially. We have changed our working assumption for Chinese consumption of iron ore in 2020 from +1.7% to -1.2%.
 
The flow through to iron ore pricing remains unclear, not least due to significant (unrelated) downward revisions to forecast seaborne supply in 2020, and uncertainty regarding the extent of Chinese domestic concentrate curtailments. It seems prudent to work on the basis that China’s seaborne iron ore requirement in 2020 will be at least 15 million tonnes lower than we previously thought.
 
Metallurgical coal
With the shortage in domestic Chinese supply for all metallurgical coal types, prices for imported coal have retained support.
 
Domestic supply continues to struggle. Labour and transport restrictions have curtailed deliveries from Shanxi, and a mine accident in Shandong is adding to near term disruption. Mongolian imports have slowed to a trickle since the border closure during February. Supply shortages in Australia and Canada helped to maintain this supply tightness in the seaborne trade. Between longwall movements and the loss of Moranbah North in Australia, and logistics issues from cold weather and protest disruptions in Canada, supply remained constricted from mid-January through February. Over the month, spot prices for Australian premium low volatile HCC averaged US$155/t, up from US$151/t in January. As supplies of premium coal dwindled late in February, prices breached US$162/t on the last trading day of the month.
 
Coking coal prices are set for a rollercoaster remainder of the year. High steel stocks are starting to limit production at blast furnaces, and coal supply looks set to improve from the middle of March. April looks likely to be a low point for prices, as coal supply normalises, and Mongolia reopens its borders. Improving steel demand in May through July – as construction sites restart – will help support coking coal prices. And the potential for sizeable Chinese stimulus from Q2 2020 provides some optimism that seaborne prices will be considerably higher by the end of the year, despite the possibility of prolonged virus impacts outside China.
 
Thermal coal
China’s domestic supply is recovering vigorously with nearly 78% of capacity back in operation, according to the NEA. The capacity utilisation rate continued to pick up and hit 65%, double what it was at the beginning of the month.
 
Meanwhile, demand for thermal coal is increasing. But with only a third of companies having restarted operations, demand is resuming much slower than supply. This is causing stockpiles at ports and power generating companies (gencos) to build, which places downward pressure on the Qinhuangdao 5,500 price. We forecast this price to remain on a downward trend through March as supply continues to outstrip demand.
 
We have downgraded our full-year Newcastle 6,000 price to US$67/tonne. Being most exposed to the Chinese market, Newcastle 5,500 high-ash and Indonesian coal prices will bear the brunt of the Chinese oversupply, hitting their lowest level in April and then staying low for the remainder of H1. These prices will in turn drag on the benchmark Newcastle 6,000 price as coal buyers switch to the lower cost coals where they can.
 
In Europe, coronavirus has begun to spread quickly, with Italy having over 2,000 cases to date. The ARA price, though, is likely to remain stable as it is already so deep into the cost curve. Rather it will be continuing low LNG prices and strong renewables generation keeping a lid on European coal prices.
Source: Wood Mackenzie


If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.

Recent News

Thursday, 25 June 20
ALL YOU WANT TO KNOW ABOUT COAL MINE AUCTIONS - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
Last week, Prime Minister Narendra Modi threw open the auction of 41 coal blocks for commercial mining. The decision, which was part of the announc ...


Wednesday, 24 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The World Bank estimates that the global economy will fall by 5.2% this year, underlining that the Covid-19 pandemic has had rapid and massive cons ...


Tuesday, 23 June 20
COVID-19 COULD CAUSE A BOOM IN COAL POWER - RYSTAD ENERGY | OILPRICE
COVID-19 has not only impacted the energy industry’s revenues but also its infrastructure development. The delay of new natural gas ...


Tuesday, 23 June 20
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 0.9 PCT IN JANUARY-MAY: XINHUA
Output of raw coal in China rose 0.9 percent year on year to 1.47 billion tonnes in the first five months of this year, official data showed. & ...


Monday, 22 June 20
KAMSARMAX TYPES REGULARLY HIT THE $9,000 PER DAY LEVEL FOR INDONESIAN COAL RUN TO CHINA, BALTIC BRIEFING SAYS
Capesize The Capesize market trajectory this week has been one of the steepest rallies the sector has experienced. Opening at $12,410, the sect ...


   2 3 4 5 6   
Showing 16 to 20 news of total 5990
News by Category
Popular News
 
Total Members : 26,970
Member
Panelist
User ID
Password
Remember Me
By logging on you accept our TERMS OF USE.
Free
Register
Forgot Password
 
Our Members Are From ...

  • Jatenergy - Australia
  • CoalTek, United States
  • Arch Coal - USA
  • Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
  • Geoservices-GeoAssay Lab
  • The Treasury - Australian Government
  • Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
  • Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
  • SMG Consultants - Indonesia
  • Mitra SK Pvt Ltd - India
  • New Zealand Coal & Carbon
  • Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
  • Glencore India Pvt. Ltd
  • European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
  • Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
  • Total Coal South Africa
  • Coal Orbis AG
  • Berau Coal - Indonesia
  • Sojitz Corporation - Japan
  • PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
  • Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
  • Coal and Oil Company - UAE
  • Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
  • Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
  • Moodys - Singapore
  • Tanito Harum - Indonesia
  • Peabody Energy - USA
  • Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
  • AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
  • Ministry of Transport, Egypt
  • Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
  • Singapore Mercantile Exchange
  • Runge Indonesia
  • Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
  • Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
  • SASOL - South Africa
  • ING Bank NV - Singapore
  • Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
  • Mechel - Russia
  • Eastern Energy - Thailand
  • Permata Bank - Indonesia
  • Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
  • SMC Global Power, Philippines
  • Sical Logistics Limited - India
  • Mitsubishi Corporation
  • KEPCO - South Korea
  • Posco Energy - South Korea
  • Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
  • Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
  • Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
  • Latin American Coal - Colombia
  • Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
  • Chamber of Mines of South Africa
  • Panama Canal Authority
  • Enel Italy
  • Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
  • Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
  • Pinang Coal Indonesia
  • Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
  • UOB Asia (HK) Ltd
  • SUEK AG - Indonesia
  • Indonesia Power. PT
  • Planning Commission, India
  • Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
  • TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
  • Wilmar Investment Holdings
  • ETA - Dubai
  • SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
  • Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
  • Dalmia Cement Bharat India
  • The University of Queensland
  • Ministry of Mines - Canada
  • Arutmin Indonesia
  • Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
  • Bhatia International Limited - India
  • Indian Oil Corporation Limited
  • Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
  • White Energy Company Limited
  • Vale Mozambique
  • JPower - Japan
  • Bank of China, Malaysia
  • Bangkok Bank PCL
  • Deutsche Bank - India
  • ASAPP Information Group - India
  • Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
  • Japan Coal Energy Center
  • Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
  • McConnell Dowell - Australia
  • Asian Development Bank
  • Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
  • Kobe Steel Ltd - Japan
  • The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
  • Merrill Lynch Bank
  • Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
  • Inco-Indonesia
  • McKinsey & Co - India
  • Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
  • SGS (Thailand) Limited
  • Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
  • Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
  • Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
  • Inspectorate - India
  • Indorama - Singapore
  • Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
  • KPMG - USA
  • NTPC Limited - India
  • Idemitsu - Japan
  • RBS Sempra - UK
  • Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
  • Tamil Nadu electricity Board
  • Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
  • Goldman Sachs - Singapore
  • Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
  • Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
  • Malabar Cements Ltd - India
  • Ernst & Young Pvt. Ltd.
  • Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
  • Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
  • Agrawal Coal Company - India
  • CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
  • GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
  • Anglo American - United Kingdom
  • Reliance Power - India
  • The India Cements Ltd
  • globalCOAL - UK
  • Economic Council, Georgia
  • Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
  • Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
  • Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
  • Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
  • Clarksons - UK
  • PLN Batubara - Indonesia
  • ACC Limited - India
  • Australian Coal Association
  • Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
  • Renaissance Capital - South Africa
  • Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
  • Bank of America
  • Petron Corporation, Philippines
  • Surastha Cement
  • Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
  • Romanian Commodities Exchange
  • Energy Development Corp, Philippines
  • Trasteel International SA, Italy
  • BNP Paribas - Singapore
  • Indonesian Coal Mining Association
  • Ince & co LLP
  • Maruti Cements - India
  • Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
  • Adani Power Ltd - India
  • PTC India Limited - India
  • Barclays Capital - USA
  • Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
  • Shenhua Group - China
  • Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
  • Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
  • TANGEDCO India
  • Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
  • Coeclerici Indonesia
  • Petrosea - Indonesia
  • IMC Shipping - Singapore
  • IBC Asia (S) Pte Ltd
  • Xstrata Coal
  • World Coal - UK
  • Adaro Indonesia
  • Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
  • DBS Bank - Singapore
  • Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
  • Thriveni
  • Cement Manufacturers Association - India
  • OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
  • WorleyParsons
  • Noble Europe Ltd - UK
  • Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
  • Platts
  • Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
  • Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
  • Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
  • Cosco
  • KOWEPO - South Korea
  • Vitol - Bahrain
  • Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
  • Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
  • Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
  • GMR Energy Limited - India
  • Indika Energy - Indonesia
  • Core Mineral Indonesia
  • J M Baxi & Co - India
  • Thomson Reuters GRC
  • Gupta Coal India Ltd
  • EIA - United States
  • Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
  • PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
  • ICICI Bank Limited - India
  • Parliament of New Zealand
  • TRAFIGURA, South Korea
  • Minerals Council of Australia
  • Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
  • Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
  • Infraline Energy - India
  • Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
  • Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
  • Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
  • Interocean Group of Companies - India
  • bp singapore
  • Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
  • Cebu Energy, Philippines
  • VISA Power Limited - India
  • Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
  • Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
  • PowerSource Philippines DevCo
  • Maybank - Singapore
  • Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
  • BRS Brokers - Singapore
  • International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
  • Humpuss - Indonesia
  • Heidelberg Cement - Germany
  • GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
  • Qatrana Cement - Jordan
  • Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
  • Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
  • Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
  • Vedanta Resources Plc - India
  • Sucofindo - Indonesia
  • LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
  • Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
  • Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
  • Central Java Power - Indonesia
  • Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
  • Fearnleys - India
  • Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
  • Gresik Semen - Indonesia
  • Indogreen Group - Indonesia
  • Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
  • Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
  • Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
  • Bhushan Steel Limited - India
  • Asia Cement - Taiwan
  • Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
  • GHCL Limited - India
  • Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
  • Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
  • Bangladesh Power Developement Board
  • ANZ Bank - Australia
  • GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
  • Britmindo - Indonesia
  • Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
  • Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
  • PetroVietnam
  • Thiess Contractors Indonesia
  • Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
  • Medco Energi Mining Internasional
  • Cargill India Pvt Ltd
  • Coaltrans Conferences
  • Star Paper Mills Limited - India
  • Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
  • World Bank
  • South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
  • UBS Singapore
  • Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
  • Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
  • Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
  • Mitsui
  • Mercator Lines Limited - India
  • JPMorgan - India
  • Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
  • TGV SRAAC LIMITED, India
  • Deloitte Consulting - India
  • Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
  • Cemex - Philippines
  • U S Energy Resources
  • Thailand Anthracite
  • Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
  • Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
  • Edison Trading Spa - Italy
  • Baramulti Group, Indonesia
  • Marubeni Corporation - India
  • TNPL - India
  • KPCL - India
  • Maersk Broker
  • GNFC Limited - India
  • IOL Indonesia
  • Credit Suisse - India
  • Commonwealth Bank - Australia
  • Coal India Limited
  • Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
  • Independent Power Producers Association of India
  • Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
  • Samsung - South Korea
  • San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
  • Mjunction Services Limited - India
  • NALCO India
  • Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
  • Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
  • HSBC - Hong Kong
  • Russian Coal LLC
  • Thermax Limited - India
  • IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
  • CNBM International Corporation - China
  • Thai Mozambique Logistica
  • Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
  • Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
  • Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
  • Georgia Ports Authority, United States
  • Videocon Industries ltd - India
  • MEC Coal - Indonesia
  • Cardiff University - UK
  • Carbofer General Trading SA - India
  • IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
  • Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
  • Tata Power - India
  • Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
  • Indian School of Mines
  • MS Steel International - UAE
  • CCIC - Indonesia
  • TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
  • CESC Limited - India
  • SRK Consulting
  • PLN - Indonesia
  • Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
  • Parry Sugars Refinery, India
  • Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
  • Malco - India
  • Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
  • London Commodity Brokers - England
  • Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
  • Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
  • Lafarge - France
  • APGENCO India
  • Argus Media - Singapore
  • Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
  • Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
  • Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
  • Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
  • India Bulls Power Limited - India
  • Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
  • Shree Cement - India
  • Rudhra Energy - India
  • Platou - Singapore
  • GB Group - China
  • EMO - The Netherlands
  • Eastern Coal Council - USA
  • Central Electricity Authority - India
  • Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
  • Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
  • Aditya Birla Group - India
  • Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
  • Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
  • Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
  • OCBC - Singapore
  • Freeport Indonesia
  • Xindia Steels Limited - India
  • Siam City Cement - Thailand