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Friday, 22 November 19
UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL COAL MARKET PERSISTED IN 3Q19 - ADARO
Adaro EnergyUncertainty in thermal coal market persisted in 3Q19, mainly due to the actions, or inactions, of China in setting policies for global coal market. Benchmark prices for sub-bituminous and Newcastle off-spec coals declined and remained low during this period amid concern of China import quota and more supply to Pacific market partly due to prolonged dry season in Indonesia said Adaro 3Q19 quarterly activities report. the report further said, although beginning of July saw slight rally in benchmark prices, GlobalCoal Newcastle (gCN) benchmark declined to US$60 level in August, the lowest since July 2016. The average gCN price and Indonesian sub-bituminous price (ICI3) in 3Q19 dropped by 42% and 19%, respectively, compared to the same period last year.
 
The overall seaborne coal demand in 9M19 increased compared to last year despite the reduced intake from Europe amid low gas prices and uncertainties in China import policy. Demand growth from seaborne market was mainly driven by China, Indian subcontinent and Southeast Asia. The opened arbitrage for imported coal has increased China’s thermal and anthracite import volume by 20% compared to September last year, bringing January-September import volume up by 6% y-o-y.
 
Adaro says, at the same time, India has increased its coal imports during the quarter to supply its coastal power plants as Coal India underperformed in 3Q19. Vietnam, the Philippines, and Malaysia continue to make progress with constructions of new coal-fired plants. Vietnam led the demand growth in Southeast Asia with total y-o-y increase of 18 Mt in Jan-Sep 2019. From the supply side, although Indonesian production is likely to continue growing, export is expected to be constrained by increased domestic demand and upcoming rainy season. Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources approved quota increment from miners to an additional 24-35 Mt of production. Australia and Russia also increased their supply to seaborne market during the first nine months of the year, while the US and Colombia reduced their export volume due to dropping demand from the Atlantic market.


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