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Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, while some analysts are forecasting that a new supply glut could send oil prices crashing in early 2020. A sharp drop would increase the strain on some group members like Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, which are already facing political unrest and economic crises. Furthermore, it would ripple through the rest of the industry, hitting the shale boom that has transformed the U.S. into the world’s biggest oil producer. “The prospect of oversupply looms over the market in 2020,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley “Either OPEC deepens its cuts, or prices will fall to about $45 a barrel, and force a slowdown in U.S. shale that balances the market.”
It is noticed that the Saudis seem to have little appetite for further sacrifices. They already cut output more than twice as deep as initially foreseen in October, while others like Nigeria and Iraq haven’t delivered on their commitments, according to Bloomberg’s data. In addition, Russia faces less budgetary pressure compared to its OPEC counterparts, therefore less urgency to take action. Keeping the current level of cuts might be the right call if optimism about 2020 proves correct. The OPEC general secretary signaled last week that the pressure on the organization to intervene has abated, as the outlook next year is “brighter” because of surprisingly robust economic growth and a thawing of the U.S.-China trade war.
The market reaction to OPEC no additional cuts next year is rather bearish for prices. “The first half of next year will be extremely oversupplied,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former oil official at the White House under President George W. Bush. “To prevent swelling inventories and contain bearish price pressure in the first half, OPEC will have to cut again.” Same has been estimated from Total’s CEO Patrick Pouyanne, who said the producer group may be forced to act if prices slide further. “My feeling is that OPEC will react as the price moves below $60 a barrel,” Pouyanne added.
The downturn that might follow if OPEC doesn’t increase its efforts could be painful for many of the alliance’s members. For example it is being reported that Iran, with its exports already decreased due to the U.S. sanctions, may need a price triple than present levels to cover planned government spending next year. Venezuela’s oil production is also bleeding due to its economic collapse, while Iraq has violently suppressed protests against corruption and economic stagnation. Even Saudi Arabia, which requires a comparatively lower price in order to finance its government, also wants to avoid a price crash as it prepares the initial public offering of Aramco.
“The impact of a market downturn wouldn’t be limited to OPEC. American shale production has already slowed considerably as lower prices constrain drilling, productivity slackens and investors push companies to provide returns rather than invest in output growth. Drilling could plunge by 20% if OPEC avoids additional cutbacks” Morgan Stanley’s Rats said. Apart from falling prices, it seems that the group’s perceived strength would also be challenged if no extra support is extended next year and therefore despite any indications that this will most probably be the case, the organization might takes markets by surprise.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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