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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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