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Thursday, 03 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
IntermodalEdible oil products across the board are showing healthy amount of export activity, however, rates in most cases are struggling to move accordingly due to the CPP markets dragging them down. Sunflower oil exports from Black Sea are peaking; Soya bean oil exports are supported by MED demand and Palm oil movements look the brightest.
 
After a slow summer, September export volumes of Sunflower oil from Black Sea, especially to China, moved up significantly. Owners with CIQ approved cargo history on their ships, were looking forward to capitalize on that, however, this didn't quite materialize due to the availability of such tonnage. Increased cargo going into India was also not enough to push rates north. To the contrary, there have been fixtures done lower than the last benchmarks levels. This can all be justified by the poor CPP market prevailing in the MED during last weeks; if no tension in CPP market comes soon, freight rates are unlikely to change. 
 
Volumes of veg-oil exports from S. America have been on the lower side these past few weeks. However, there have been quite a few liftings and forward bookings into early October. That is quite reasonable, since India imports are on halt due to the country’s storage tanks being filled up. However, there has been increased cargo volume into the MED right on time, but yet again not enough to balance the absence of India imports. That being said, SME was the prevailing product moving to MED, in volumes that have not been seen for a long time. Looking forward, one should again foresee the petroleum product end of the equation. As such, until there is an improvement in the Atlantic petroleum product trade, owners will most likely entertain the on-going rates.
 
Palm oil market is looking somewhat better. Regional routes to China and India are showing great activity, while Long haul movements to Europe, USA, Continent and other West destinations have also been holding firm till September. A firm CPP market during the past weeks has allowed owners to push for a premium to position their vessels west, however, it is now correcting and bunker prices cooling off.
 
Getting into the traditional stronger Q4 along with all the IMO 2020 changes, it should be expected that there would be no further down pressure on rates, owners are expected to be bullish and traders to prepare for firmer rates. This market has always been at the mercy of CPP market trends and this should also be the case this time round.
By Stelios Kollintzas
Tanker Chartering Broker


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