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Thursday, 26 September 19
INDIA INCREASES ITS ANNUAL COAL PRODUCTION BY 2.7% PER YEAR FROM 850 MILLION SHORT TONS IN 2018 TO 2 BILLION SHORT TONS BY 2050 - EIA
EIAWorldwide coal production holds steady at about 8 billion short tons, or 160 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu), per year through 2040. Increased coal use in India and other Asian countries that are not part of the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) helps drive consumption to more than 9 billion short tons (175 quadrillion Btu) by 2050, said U.S. Energy Information Administration in its latest International Energy Outlook 2019 with projections to 2050 report.
 
According to EIA, India increases its annual coal production by 2.7% per year from 850 million short tons in 2018 to 2 billion short tons by 2050 to help meet growing domestic demand. India’s coal consumption grows by an average of 3.1% per year, from 1.1 billion short tons (17 quadrillion Btu) in 2018 to 2.9 billion short tons (46 quadrillion Btu) in 2050. China remains the largest producer and the largest user of coal, consuming about 3.5 billion short tons (74 quadrillion Btu) in 2050 after peaking at 4.7 billion short tons (nearly 95 quadrillion Btu) in 2013.
 
In OECD countries, International Energy Outlook 2019 noted, coal consumption decreases by 2.5% per year from 2018 to 2025, before remaining relatively constant throughout the remainder of the projection period. World coal trade is projected to grow from 2018 to 2050 at an average rate of 1.4% per year, totaling 2.2 billion short tons by 2050. 
 
Increasing coal demand in the Asian economies is driving growth in coal trade. India coal imports grow by 4.1% per year, China coal imports remain relatively constant, and the remaining countries in non-OECD Asia increase imports by 1.8% per year.  
 
EIA says further, Metallurgical coal trade increases gradually as industrial consumption shifts to India and other countries that have limited or no metallurgical coal production. In contrast to Asia, coal imports to the Americas—largely the United States and the other non-OECD America region – grow slowly through 2050.
 
The Australia and New Zealand region continues to be the world’s top coal exporter, followed by other non-OECD Asia, which is predominantly accounted for as Indonesia. By 2050, Australia accounts for 33% of global coal exports, and other non-OECD Asia accounts for nearly 35% of global coal exports.
 
Coal’s share of China’s electricity generation decreases from 64% in 2018 to 30% in 2050.  In 2050, electricity generation is projected to account for 39 quadrillion Btu of coal, while renewables, nuclear, and natural gas account for 73, 12, and 7 quadrillion Btu, respectively. 
 
Projected coal consumption in China for uses other than electricity generation falls from 43 quadrillion Btu in 2018 to 35 quadrillion Btu in 2050 as a result of the decreasing use of both steam and metallurgical coal in industrial boilers and steel manufacturing. 
 
In 2050, China remains the largest consumer and producer of coal in the world, with coal consumption of 74 quadrillion Btu and coal production of 3.1 Billion short tons (69.2 quadrillion Btu). Production of coal decreases as consumption decreases. China continues to produce 93% of coal needs and import about 7% of its coal demand through 2050.
 
In 2018, India was the world’s second-largest coal consumer after China, consuming more than 17 quadrillion Btu.Sustained industrial growth and significant efforts to further electrify the country’s rural areas are expected to continue to drive India’s coal consumption growth.
 
The report further noted that, in the power sector, coal consumption increases by 2.5% per year between 2018 and 2050 but it is outpaced by renewables consumption, which grows by 8.1% per year during the same period. By 2050, power sector coal consumption is 24 quadrillion Btu, and renewables consumption reaches 36 quadrillion Btu.
 
Strong growth in industrial applications leads projected industrial consumption to increase from 6 quadrillion Btu in 2018 to 22 quadrillion Btu in 2050.


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