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Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the rest of the world. It also plays an essential role for the Asian economies that are dependent on oil imports from the Middle East. Even when considering that the daily flows of oil through the channel account for around 30 percent of all petroleum products, the Middle East has never been entirely safe. The recent tanker attacks have brought even bigger concern.
Since May, six tanker vessels and one U.S. drone have been attacked near the Strait of Hormuz which is a strategically important waterway separating the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. Fujairah, which is a trading center for refined products and crude is facing big challenges. War-risk premiums have increased significantly while freight rates remained more or less the same and as a result, oil tanker owners have started avoiding sending their ships to the region.
One of the biggest ones, Frontline Ltd, even temporarily stopped trading from the Gulf. “We have people of every nationality and vessels of every flag transiting that crucial sea lane,” the chairman of the International Association of Tanker Owners, Paolo d’Amico, told the New York Times after the second attack. “If the waters are becoming unsafe, the supply to the entire Western world could be at risk.”
“As a shipping company and part of the global shipping industry, we are taking the threat to our crew and ships very seriously,” Anthony Gurnee, chief executive of Ardmore Shipping, told CNBC this week. “At the moment, it is business as usual (but) insurance to transit the Strait of Hormuz has actually increased 10-fold in the last two months as a consequence of the attacks.” After the attacks, insurers start upping their premiums for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and also oil prices spiked. Particularly, concerns regarding a possible military confrontation increased when Iran shot down a U.S drone and were further exacerbated after the US president’s tweet “Iran made a very big mistake!”. Following these we saw oil prices moving substantially up.
The 3 scenarios:
The Optimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed for only a few days. In this case, the impact on global oil supplies would be minimal; however, we would still probably see a brief spike due to the initial uncertainty surrounding its outcome. Crude prices would possibly fall back to pre-crisis levels. The capacity of pipelines and in United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia should be effective in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
The Pessimistic Scenario, is for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully closed for the first 45 days, and straight-line resumption in oil tanker traffic over the next 45 days will lead to historically high crude oil prices on an inflation-adjusted basis for an extended period.
Finally, the Doomsday Scenario would be for the Strait to be closed for three-months. We cannot even imagine how high Crude oil prices would go and last but not least , they would not begin to fall back until the global economy collapses into deep recession.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
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Showing 26 to 30 news of total 6846 |
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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