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Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. Cumulatively, we’ve increased volumes for 2025 by an astonishing 9 million b/d compared with our forecasts in 2016, the oil price nadir. Non-OPEC supply has already bounced from the 2016 low of 54 million b/d and will touch 60 million b/d this year. Our latest Macro Oils Long Term Outlook expects a peak of 66 million b/d in 2025, 5% above our forecast last year. Oil demand too has grown more quickly than expected, up 6 million b/d on 2016 forecasts.
“Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe.”
Simon Flowers
Chairman and Chief Analyst
Production keeps on growing despite structurally lower oil prices and upstream investment still 40% below peak. Did we, like many others, underestimate the industry’s ability to adapt and innovate in the face of financial adversity – and keep on producing oil? Maybe. But where on earth is it all coming from? There are four main buckets.
1. US Lower 48
tight oil and NGLs together contribute 4.3 million b/d, half of the increase versus 2016. This primarily reflects the emergence of the Permian basin as the dominant tight oil play. The delineation of sweet spots, more efficient drilling, and the present shift to industrialised exploitation have led to a significant improvement in Permian well economics. Innovation has boosted expected recovery from the more mature Bakken, Eagle Ford and Scoop-Stack plays to a lesser extent. NGLs associated with the gassier parts of the Permian and shale gas plays make up about one-third of the US L48 increase.
2. Russia
Our forecasts for 2025 are 1.4 million b/d higher than three years ago, in spite of sanctions which restrict inward investment and the transfer of the latest technological advances. Rouble weakness has buoyed upstream margins in Russia since the price fell, supporting higher investment, including an intense drilling programme in deeper, low-permeability plays in West Siberia. Sanction of some greenfield projects has been deferred by Russia’s involvement in OPEC+, effectively pushing new volumes out by a few years.
3. Guyana
Only the original Liza discovery was in our 2016 forecasts. We’ve added another 0.5 million b/d by 2025, reflecting multiple subsequent deepwater discoveries. First production is due in 2020, setting Guyana on track to enter the top 12 non-OPEC producers with over 1 million b/d by the end of the decade.
4. Mature producers
Together, these have added over 2 million b/d compared with our 2016 forecasts. Colombia, UK, Norway, US (Alaska) and Canada are among a plethora of countries which have surprised on the upside. Cost cutting, efficiencies, reduced maintenance outages, high-grading and streamlining of new projects, new discoveries tied into existing infrastructure and, in some cases, reduced tax rates have combined to slow decline rates and boost production. There are valid questions whether production from ultra-mature basins is sustainable at these rates, or volumes are merely being accelerated. As a result , some of these producers are slated to see steeper declines.
Non-OPEC supply won’t grow at this rate forever
In fact, Non-OPEC supply stops after 2025 as tight oil plateaus, with decline setting in by 2030. In the meantime, the OPEC+ strategy to boost revenues by constraining production and buoying up price has helped its competitors boost production and gain market share.
We estimate non-OPEC production will swallow up 4.3 million b/d, or 76%, of contestable demand over the next five years. OPEC’s scope to increase volumes through this period is limited to just 1.3 million b/d. The maths sits at odds with Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Iraq which are investing heavily in new capacity. Some producers in OPEC do see flat or declining volumes in this period.
Major supply outages are helping OPEC+ to balance the market today. Disruptions are set to leap to a record 5 million b/d later this year, including 2.5 million b/d from Iran (sanctions) and Venezuela (economic meltdown and US sanctions). It may suit the rest of OPEC, as well as the US, if exports from Iran and Venezuela are kept off the market for some years – at least until non-OPEC production growth shows signs of abating.
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Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
...
Friday, 02 February 24
DRY BULK MARKET: THE DOWNWARD REVISION IN THE GROWTH OF CAPESIZE TONNE DAYS IN JANUARY WITH THE BCI DROPPING - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In the last week of January, the dry freight market sustained weakness in the Capesize segment, while the number of ballasters in the Southeast (SE ...
Friday, 02 February 24
COAL INDIA ACHIEVES NEARLY 80% OF ITS FY24 PRODUCTION TARGET IN TEN MONTHS - CNBCTV18
For the month of January, the company’s production grew by 9.1% from the same period last year to 78.4 Million Tonnes (MT), from 71.9 MT last ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
CHINA'S WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY TO OVERTAKE COAL IN 2024 - INDUSTRY BODY, REUTERS REPORTED
China’s installed wind and solar capacity is expected to overtake coal for the first time this year, according to industry forecasts.
&nb ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
ANTI-DEDUCTION CLAUSES: CAN A CHARTERER WITHHOLD HIRE WITHOUT AN OWNER'S CONSENT? - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Summary
In The Anna Dorothea, the Court found that where a charterparty provides that no deduction from hire may be m ...
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Showing 16 to 20 news of total 6846 |
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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