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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 01 February 24
CHINA'S WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY TO OVERTAKE COAL IN 2024 - INDUSTRY BODY, REUTERS REPORTED
China’s installed wind and solar capacity is expected to overtake coal for the first time this year, according to industry forecasts.
&nb ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
ANTI-DEDUCTION CLAUSES: CAN A CHARTERER WITHHOLD HIRE WITHOUT AN OWNER'S CONSENT? - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Summary
In The Anna Dorothea, the Court found that where a charterparty provides that no deduction from hire may be m ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
INDIA REBUILDS COAL STOCKS TO ENSURE ELECTRIC RELIABILITY - REUTERS
India’s electricity supply is much more comfortable at the start of 2024 than in either 2023 or 2022 as coal production has ramped up and the ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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