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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
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Showing 21 to 25 news of total 6843 |
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Economic Council, Georgia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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