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Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has been hit in early February due to seasonality of purchasing in the lead up to Chinese New Year and customs delays impacting Australian vessels into China. Will this move be another short-term blip and mirror the volatility seen last year, or is a broader correction at play?
Australian high CV thermal coal supply to remain tight
In 2019, demand growth in the Asia-Pacific market will require an extra 3 million tonnes of bituminous thermal coal. By 2023, we anticipate a further 34 Mtpa of bituminous coal demand in the region, led by India, Vietnam, South Korea, Pakistan and Malaysia.
While demand is increasing, Australian high CV thermal coal supply fell last year and will only partially recover this year. The recovery might be further constrained should producers target more semi-soft sales.
The ramp up of MACH Energy’s Mt Pleasant coal mine in New South Wales caters for nearly all the change, with high CV supply (ex. Mt Pleasant) essentially flat over 2019-21.
High CV supply could retreat again in 2022 due to lower output at Glencore’s Mt Owen mine and a possible closure at Liddell. Coal quality at BHP’s Mt Arthur mine is also expected to gradually decline. By 2023, we see a growing likelihood of a return to 2018 production levels.
Australian high CV thermal coal supply 2018-2023
Mine performance and quality issues limit supply response
The fall in Australian high CV thermal coal supply helped prices move nearly US$20/tonne higher in 2018. Widening price spreads between high CV and high ash thermal coal begged questions as to why we weren’t seeing a supply response? Part of that answer rests on specific constraints at a few large thermal coal mines in Australia, which contrary to expectations of growth, actually recorded declines in output. Some mines had short-term sequencing changes, while others battled with falling product quality. Pricing differentials between high CV thermal and semi-soft also played a part, with lower semi-soft supply offsetting the fall in high CV supply.
Two of the largest mines in New South Wales, BHP’s Mt Arthur and Yancoal/Glencore’s HVO, reported declines in output in 2018 of 4% and 11% respectively. In Mt Arthur’s case, saleable output was constrained by a lower washing yield, declining coal quality and adverse weather. At HVO, mine plans had been remodelled following a strategic review of operations following the takeover from Rio Tinto. Meanwhile, output at Whitehaven’s underground Narrabri mine fell nearly 30% as it worked around a geological fault. We also understand a number of Glencore’s mines were technically constrained in their ability to increase higher CV volumes by washing capacity.
Our expectations for near term thermal coal supply growth have moderated given recent M&A and an increasing focus on capital allocation. The latest plan at HVO is to gradually recover to 15 Mtpa with a focus on efficiency and productivity improvement, rather than further growth to 17 Mtpa. At Mt Arthur, we expect production to peak at a lower rate of 21 Mtpa, down from 22.5 Mtpa, given updated capital plans and optimisation of the operation.
On a price standpoint, we expect prices to recover and average US$98/tonne this year, down from US$107/tonne last year. Prices will remain elevated in 2019 given fundamental support for high energy thermal coal indexed to the GlobalCoal 6,000 kcal specification (14% max ash ar, 5,850 kcal/kg min nar).
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 22 March 24
CASE STUDY: DANGERS OF COAL CARGO - SKULD
Recently, a bulk cargo vessel carrying coal from South Africa to Singapore suffered a fatal accident, resulting in the deaths of three crew members ...
Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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