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Monday, 31 December 18
THE INDONESIAN COAL MARKET Q1 '19 FORECAST: LOOKS DIRECTIONLESS - TRADER
The Indonesian coal market looks directionless, an International coal trader said when we asked him to give his forecast for 1Q' 2019. 
 
"Volatility will be high in the near future, going into 1Q' 2019, we are confusion on the direction of coal prices," said one of the marketing in-charge of the one of the largest coal mines in Indonesia. According to him, the market direction will be determined by China's next move on coal imports as well as Indonesian coal output.
 
CS (i) Coal Indexes have declined since mid of October 2018. However, last few weeks it showed slightly improved path, but could not find any firm direction of improvement.
 
Despite slides in the coal price, some traders remain positive on prices and demand going into 1Q' 2019. "We believe coal prices will improve next quarter, but not significantly," a director coal trading company based in Jakarta said. 
 
But, another International coal trader who is stationed in Jakarta, said the market will decline further in 1Q' 2019 compared to current levels.
 
However, without any doubt all executives agreed, the Chinese importers will be driving forces for Indonesian as well as International coal prices in the next year. China's coal buying pattern will directly or indirectly determine coal prices next year. The Indonesian coal output policy will also play a minor role in driving Indonesian coal prices to north or south next year.


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